【國立臺灣大學 109學年度畢業典禮 校長致詞】
Opening Remarks, National Taiwan University Commencement 2021
President Dr. Chung-Ming Kuan
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各位師長同仁，各位畢業同學以及家長們，歡迎大家參加 109 學年度的線上畢業典禮。
去年新冠疫情初起，學校雖仍舉辦實體的畢業典禮，但規模大為縮小，許多師生和家長均以無法參加典禮為憾。今年初臺灣的疫情持續穩定，大家原本期待今年畢業典禮能按照往年方式辦理。不料五月時疫情急轉直下，臺北市疫情警戒程度提高，我們於是推遲畢業典禮，並改以線上方式進行。這也是臺大首次以線上方式舉辦畢業典禮。
隨著疫情發展，線上活動如今已成為生活中的新常態。我們雖逐漸習慣線上教學，線上會議，線上交流，線上購物訂餐等，但連期待了四年的畢業典禮也只能在線上參加，許多同學與家長們難免失望。為此，學務處與許多同學攜手，精心策劃了今天這場特殊的線上畢業典禮，希望能讓大家留下不一樣，但仍美好的記憶。
因為新冠疫情，有些同學會抱怨：這樣大的疫情怎麼就正好被我們在畢業時碰上了？也有些同學則樂觀的想，一旦有了疫苗，疫情得到控制，世界最終還是會回到以前的軌道，大家仍可以過著平穩安定的日子。
然而這個世界從不曾平靜。今年畢業的同學多數出生於1999 年，那正是規模達 7.3 的 921 大地震發生的那一年。時隔四年，亞洲（包括臺灣）爆發了罕見的急性呼吸道感染病 SARS。不過五年之後，源自美國的金融海嘯席捲全球，影響全世界經濟數年之久。2009 更是不平靜的一年，臺灣出現莫拉克風災，造成慘重傷亡；全球則爆發了 H1N1 流感大流行，數十萬人因此死亡。這些當時都曾被認為是數十年（甚至百年）一遇的重大災難。
回顧二十多年來的這些事件（這還僅僅是一部份與臺灣相關的事件），我們就會發現：巨大的天災人禍，過去曾頻繁出現，未來應該也不會少見。
當然，新冠疫情的影響範圍遠超過 SARS 與 H1N1 流感，對世界的衝擊則更大於金融海嘯。近代能與這次疫情相比的是一百年前 (1918-1920) 的全球流感大流行；據後來估計，當時全世界人口三分之一染疫，約有五千萬人因此不幸喪生。
那次流感爆發時正值第一次世界大戰末期，對當時的德軍主力造成嚴重打擊。而後疫情時代，戰敗的德國被列強宰割，奧匈帝國及奧圖曼帝國亦隨之瓦解，徹底改變了舊的國際秩序，也為後來的世局（從歐陸，到中東和亞洲）埋下許多不安定的種子。
這次新冠疫情並未伴隨著世界大戰，但出現在國際強權針鋒相對，世界產業供應鏈重整的關鍵時刻；後疫情時代因此充滿不確定性。而重組後的國際政經秩序，我不知道那會是一個「美好或不美好的新世界」*，但它就是大家必須面對的世界。那裡將充滿挑戰和機會，如何善用所學回應挑戰，如何從機會中脫穎而出，都是大家新的功課。這些功課沒有標準答案，你們必須自己解答，自己審閱答案。
我也希望利用這個機會提醒同學們，對於正在醫療前線奮戰的眾多醫護人員，其中包括了許多學校師長與大家的學長姐們，我們一定要心存感念。當疫情大浪襲來時，他們勇往直前，力挽狂瀾，不僅保護病人，也捍衛著臺灣社會。他們是真正的英雄。只要大家共同努力，疫情終會過去，我們一定會贏得抗疫的最後勝利。
最後，我謹代表所有老師和行政主管，向所有畢業同學們表達最深切的祝福，也恭喜辛苦多年的家長們。敬祝大家未來一切順利，身體健康
最後我還想講幾句話。我記得我看過一篇外國人寫的文章，他說他在臺灣多年，注意到臺灣有個很奇怪的習慣，朋友分手時都常常會說：「要小心哦」。我看到這篇文章的時候，也突然心有所感；多年來我媽媽每次看到我出門時會跟我講這句話，而後來我跟自己的小孩，也會講這樣的話。所以在畢業典禮這個時刻，我敬祝大家未來一切順利，身體健康，大家都要小心哦！
2021.6.26
*「美好新世界」(Brave New World) due to A. Huxley
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==============================
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When the COVID-19 pandemic began last year, NTU was still able to hold graduation ceremonies in person but on a much smaller scale and with the absence of many faculty members, students, and parents. Earlier this year, we were hoping to gather for a traditional commencement. But the sudden outbreak in May had forced Taipei City to raise its epidemic alert level. So we postponed the Commencement and made the decision to hold the ceremony virtually. This is the first virtual Commencement in NTU history.
To our faculty, new graduates, and parents, welcome to the National Taiwan University’s Commencement celebration for the Class of 2021.
As the pandemic unfolds, digital is the new normal. While we gradually adapt to online learning, virtual meetings, social media, online shopping, and food delivery, it is inescapably disappointing for many students and parents to have to celebrate the achievements of our graduates this way after anticipating this event for four years. And because of this, the Office of Student Affairs has teamed up with the graduates to ensure that this unique virtual Commencement is a moment that everyone will remember fondly in the future.
Some of you may ask, "why does this happen just when we are graduation?" And some of you may think optimistically that once the vaccines are available and the pandemic is contained, the world will be back to normal, and that we will all live peacefully.
But the world has never been peaceful. Most of the graduates this year were born in 1999, when the magnitude 7.3 earthquake happened on September 21. Four years after, SARS broke out in Asia, including Taiwan. Within another 5 years, the financial crisis, originated in the United States, affected global economies for years. In 2009, Typhoon Morakot landed and caused severe casualties in Taiwan; the H1N1 flu pandemic took hundreds of thousands of lives. These disasters were, at the time, seen as rare catastrophes that would only take place once every few decades, or even centuries.
Looking back to the past 20 years, we’d notice that, even just in Taiwan, catastrophes have never been in short supply. And they will probably never be in the future either.
Of course, the effect of COVID is far beyond SARS and H1N1, and its impact is greater than the financial crises. What came close was the Spanish flu that took place a century ago (1918-1920), when, according to estimation, one-third of the global population was infected and about 50 million people died.
The influenza pandemic outbreak took place at the end of WWI and hit the German military especially hard. And after the pandemic, Germany was forced to cede its territories to the great powers. What followed was the fall of the Austro-Hungarian and the Ottoman Empires. The series of events reset the international order and formed the settings for many conflicts in the years to come.
While COVID did not break out during a world war, it came at a critical time when great powers bicker and the global supply chains face a reform. The post-pandemic ear is therefore full of uncertainty. I don’t know whether it’d be a "Brave New World"* once the international political and economic orders are reshuffled. But it will be a world we have to live in. There will be many challenges and opportunities, and it will be our new task to utilize what we have learned to tackle challenges and grasp opportunities. Unlike any standardize
d test, you will have to answer and grade the answers yourselves.
I also want to use this opportunity to remind the graduates, that we must have appreciation and gratitude for the healthcare workers who are on the frontlines fighting. Many of them are our faculty members and alums. When the waves of the pandemic hit, they stood up to save lives and protect Taiwan’s society. They are true heroes. As long as we work together, we will weather the crisis and win this battle.
Finally, on behalf of the faculty and management, I send you our deepest best wishes. And congratulations to the parents and families who have supported the graduates for years. I wish you success and good health.
One final thing, I remember reading an article by a foreign writer who said he had lived in Taiwan for years and had noticed that Taiwanese people have a strange habit of saying "be careful" when they part ways. When I read the article, this resonates with me from the heart. For years, my mother would say the same thing whenever I am leaving the house. Now I say the same thing to my children, too. So at this Commencement ceremony, I wish everyone great success in the future, good health, and "be careful."
2021.6.26
*「美好新世界」(Brave New World) due to A. Huxley
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詳見：
https://www.facebook.com/NTUCommencement/posts/2718144868475937
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#臺灣大學 #畢業典禮 #NTUCommencement2021 #校長致詞
奧圖曼帝國 在 [討論] 如果鄂圖曼帝國未曾崩解？ - 看板DummyHistory 的推薦與評價
不久前，經濟學人發表架空歷史系列的新一篇文章
內容是討論一戰中鄂圖曼選擇站好隊的結果
剛好我以前也滿喜歡這個國家的，也常常思考這個問題
所以就找了時間慢慢翻一下，不過英文程度差，有些地方進行了超譯ＸＤ
原文：
https://www.economist.com/news/world-if/21724913-imagine-mayhem-might-have-been-avoided-had-ottoman-empire-been-saved-rather
IF THE OTTOMAN EMPIRE HAD NOT COLLAPSED
如果鄂圖曼帝國未曾崩解？
SULTANS OF SPRING
THE WORLD IF 2017
Jul 6th 2017, 12:07
Imagine the mayhem that might have been avoided had the Ottoman Empire been saved rather than sunk. Blame, among others, Winston Churchill
WHEN a Serb gunman shot an Austrian archduke in the summer of 1914, the nations of Europe tumbled into war with all the grace of bowling pins. Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, whose ally Russia declared war on Austria, whose ally Germany declared war on Russia, whose allies France and Britain declared war on Germany and Austria. By early August the continent was in flames.
時值一九一四年之夏，一名塞爾維亞槍手射殺了奧地利大公，歐洲諸國遂陷入了滾球般的混亂。奧匈帝國對塞爾維亞發下了戰檄，塞國盟友俄羅斯宣戰奧地利，奧地利盟友德國宣戰俄羅斯，俄國盟友英法宣戰德奧。八月之初，大陸烽火。
Much as it wobbled like the rest, however, one of those bowling pins could not make up its mind. Which way would Turkey fall? Should the fading Ottoman Empire join the Triple Entente (Britain, France and Russia) or go with the Central Powers (Germany and Austria-Hungary)?
諸國震盪，然而，尚有一國搖擺不覺，土耳其將投向何方。衰落的帝國該加入協約，或是同盟？
Turkey’s 500-year-old empire was shrinking. It had lost its territories in Africa, nearly all its Mediterranean islands and most of its Balkan lands as well as chunks of eastern Anatolia. It was debt-ridden, industrially backward and politically shaky.
土耳其五百年國祚的帝國正在動搖。失去了非洲領土、地中海幾乎所有島嶼、絕大多數的巴爾幹領土，以及東安納托利亞。負債累累，工業落後，政治動盪。
Still, the sultan’s lands straddled two continents, controlling access to the Black Sea. His Arabian territories stretched beyond the holy cities of Islam to the mountains of Yemen and the Persian Gulf, where there were rumoured to lie vast caverns of the sticky black liquid soon to replace coal as the world’s chief source of power.
蘇丹的土地仍橫跨兩洲，控制黑海入徑。他阿拉伯的領土超越了回教聖城，觸及了葉門群山與波斯灣……謠言漫談著這裡有巨穴黑油，此物後必大行於世。
Confident of Turkey’s weakness, Britain, France and Russia could have clobbered the Ottomans and divided the spoils. Thankfully, wiser heads prevailed. At a secret conclave aboard a British dreadnought off the coast of Norway in late July, a far-sighted politician by the name of Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, worked with French, Russian and Turkish diplomats to forge a treaty. The Turks drove a hard bargain for, as they coyly revealed, Germany too was proffering arms and gold in
exchange for an alliance.
理解土耳其的弱點，英法俄可能摧毀帝國，分其金甌。所幸，有人有更好的方法，七月下旬，挪威海濱旁的英國無畏號之上，一場秘密會議展開，一位時有名望的政治家溫斯頓·丘吉爾，是為第一海軍大臣，與法、俄、土三國周旋，密定條約。土耳其人狡猾透露，德國也欲以武器及金錢換取盟友，土耳其人因此得以強硬地討價還價
The deal that was reached proved immensely beneficial to all concerned. From France, Turkey received generous debt relief. Russia scrapped all claims to Ottoman territory, and made a limited goodwill withdrawal from parts of Anatolia. Churchill waived further payment on two warships that British shipyards were building for Turkey. And Turkey received assurances that its vulnerable extremities would not be attacked; for an empire that for a century had been preyed upon like a carcass this was a new lease
of life.
所成交易共利雙方。法國方面，土耳其被慷慨地免除債務。俄羅斯取消了對鄂圖曼領土的宣稱，並微小善意地撤出了安納托利亞。丘吉爾免除了英國造船廠為土耳其建造的兩艘軍艦之後續付款。土耳其獲知其脆弱的邊境不會受到攻擊，對於一個世紀來，像沙威瑪一樣被切片的帝國，這條約是給國家續命。
The rewards to the Triple Entente were equally big. Granted exclusive access to the Black Sea, Russia’s allies could resupply the tsar’s armies when they faltered at the start of the war. With no need to defend its Turkish frontier, Russia moved thousands of crack troops from the Caucasus to shore up its front lines. Turkey signed separate agreements recognising British control of the Suez Canal, Aden and the Trucial sheikhdoms of the Persian Gulf, securing the sea lanes for Britain’s massive
deployment of troops from the colonies to the Western Front. Turkey’s own army joined in a broad front against Austria-Hungary. Together, these Allied advantages are thought to have shortened the war by as much as a year; the Central Powers might not have sued for a truce as soon as America entered the war, but fought on instead.
協約同樣也有所報酬。由於獲得了黑海通行權，俄國得以在戰初獲得盟友的補給，也因無須在俄土邊境對峙，沙皇將高加索的上千突擊隊部署前線。土耳其簽署了單邊協議，承認英國對蘇伊士運河，亞丁和波斯灣特魯西爾酋長國的控制權，確保了英國得以自殖民地動員大規模部隊到西方戰線的海上通道。土耳其軍隊加入了對奧匈帝國的大陣線。盟軍得以縮短一年多的戰爭時間，一旦美國進入戰爭，同盟國可能不會被請求停戰，而是繼續戰鬥。
Reprieved from collapse, the Ottoman Empire’s government pursued radical reforms. Challenged by growing nationalist tendencies from Arab, Armenian, Greek and Kurdish subjects, Sultan Mehmed V issued a historic firman or proclamation that recognised these as individual nations united under the Ottoman sovereign.
奧斯曼帝國政府從崩潰中解脫出來，進行了激進的改革。受到來自阿拉伯，亞美尼亞，希臘和庫德人的民族主義傾向的挑戰，蘇丹·梅赫德五世發表了一個歷史性的公告，承認它們為個體國家，然在鄂圖曼主權之下統一。
The sultan got to keep the title of caliph, commander of the Sunni Muslim faithful, which his ancestors had acquired four centuries earlier. This proved useful when the empire had to put down a rebellion of religious fanatics in central Arabia, led by a man called Ibn Saud who gained followers by claiming he would restore Islam to a purer state. But mostly the empire was seen as a tolerant place. When Nazi persecutions drove Jews from Europe in the 1930s, many took refuge there (as they had done when
expelled from Spain in 1492), particularly in the province of Jerusalem.
蘇丹將維持在四個世紀前先皇所獲的遜尼派哈里發的頭銜。當帝國正在平定阿拉伯極端宗教主義者的叛亂時，這個頭銜便發揮了統領的用處。叛亂由一個名叫伊本·沙烏地的人領導，自稱將使伊斯蘭恢復為更純淨的國度。但大多數帝國被視為宗教寬容的地方。當納粹迫害在20世紀30年代從歐洲驅趕猶太人時，許多人在那裡躲避（就像猶太人在1492年被從西班牙驅逐時一樣），特別是在耶路撒冷省。
If only
Needless to say, none of the above happened. Quite the opposite. Turkey aligned with Germany in the first world war, and the allies did attempt to invade and divide its empire. Churchill, instead of handing over the warships that ordinary Turks had paid for by subscription, had them seized for the British navy. In 1915 he ordered a catastrophic attack on Turkey; the landing at Gallipoli cost the allies 300,000 casualties. British campaigns against Turkey in Iraq and the Levant cost another million lives.
假使
不用說，上述都沒有發生。恰恰相反。土耳其在第一次世界大戰中與德國同行，協約確實試圖入侵和分裂帝國。丘吉爾，並未奢免軍艦費用，反倒以軍艦對付土耳其人。 1915年，他下令對土耳其進行災難般的襲擊。加利波利登陸的代價是盟軍30萬人傷亡。英國在伊拉克和黎凡特的軍事行動消耗了一百萬的生命。
Turkey’s casualties mounted, by war’s end, to 3m-5m people, nearly a quarter of the Ottoman population. This included some 1.5m Armenians, slaughtered because Turkish officials believed they might become a fifth column for a hostile Russia. And when Britain and France grabbed the Ottomans’ Arab lands, their suppression of uprisings cost thousands more lives.
戰爭結束後，土耳其的傷亡人數已經達到了300萬至500萬人，是奧斯曼人口的近四分之一。 這包括約一百五十萬被屠殺的亞美尼亞人，因為土耳其官員認為他們可能成為敵對俄羅斯的資助者。 當英國和法國攫取了奧斯曼帝國的阿拉伯土地時，他們鎮壓反抗導致了數千人死亡。
How much of today’s mayhem in the Middle East, from civil wars to terror in the name of Islam (and of restoring the caliphate) to the emergence of sectarian dictators such as Bashar al-Assad, not to mention of such a grudge-bearing Ottoman revivalist as Recep Tayyip Erdogan, might have been avoided, if only Churchill had embraced Johnny Turk instead of sinking him?
多少今日在中東的混亂可被避免？以伊斯蘭教的名義（並恢復哈里發）施行的內戰、恐怖主義，或像巴沙爾·阿薩德這樣的教派獨裁者的出現，更不用說渴望復興鄂圖曼榮光的怨恨者，如雷伯普·塔伊普·埃爾多安。僅僅假使邱吉爾擁抱土雞，而非吃了它？
大概就是個英國會拍一部《鄂圖曼的勞倫斯》電影的世界
雖然我認為作者似乎有點樂觀
鄂圖曼之所以會選擇德意志，自然是因為英、俄不是吃素的
一旦協約滅亡，英俄可不會好心地讓這塊好吃的火雞放在餐盤上未動
我的想法倒是在戰爭中保持中立，等待帝國主義者自己互相殘殺
使得戰勝後的英俄也無力分食帝國
並主動引導美國勢力進入，好比二十世紀版的門戶開放政策
以此確保美國對自己主權的支持
兩次大戰後，殖民地獨立風潮大起，不列顛自然不成威脅
然而北方染紅，蘇聯的勢力成為更大的威脅
不過這反倒是更好的契機，加入北約，成為共產反堵圈的一員
以此國內發展也可受到美國的扶持。
不過鄂圖曼最可觀的潛力，莫過於地底的黑金了
今日阿拉伯諸國據此一地便能成富，鄂圖曼則是控制了整塊領土
擁有當時世界上近九成的可開採能源，怎麼不可怕
當然，不要像穆罕默德·摩薩台那樣想把石油國有化，這怎麼看都是匹夫懷玉
給予西方石油公司一定的股權，換取政治上的支持。
而這帝國最大的問題，莫過於其國家的本質，一個單一民族統治的多民族國家
南斯拉夫分了，蘇聯崩了，馬來西亞尚處爭端
不過好處在於，它的主體仍是伊斯蘭宗教
鄂圖曼帝國曾經推行過「鄂圖曼民族」這個概念
即是同於中華民族的一種多民族共同體，雖然歷史說明它失敗了
但如果它擁有一個更穩定的政治環境，它是否會成功呢？
以宗教統合多民族的國家，在今日國際上，卻實是穩定許多
比如印度的最大民族人數甚至不過半，印尼的爪哇族也僅佔四成
兩者都算是穩定的政治體。
雖然如以伊斯蘭為號召，那麼鄂圖曼可能不會如土耳其那樣西化
但也不至於成為何梅尼的伊朗或今日達許那樣激進
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