อ้อลืมไป เรื่อง herd immunity หรือภูมิคุ้มกันหมู่ ตปท เลิกคุยกันแล้วนะครับ
ตั้งแต่ตอนที่ cdc ออกมาเผยข้อมูลว่า โควิดสายพันธ์เดลต้า ค่าr0 = 8 เท่าอีสุกอีใส
เพราะถ้าอัตราการแพร่ระบาดแม่งเว่อรวังขนาดนี้ ไอ้ที่เราเคยประเมินว่า
ถ้าฉีดวัคซีนถึง 70-80% ของประชากร จะมีภูมิคุ้มกันหมู่ และหยุดการแพร่ระบาดได้นั้น
พอค่า r0 แม่งพุ่งขึ้นไปขนาดนี้ %ของประชากรที่ต้องฉีดวัคซีนในระดับที่ต้องการ
คือ 95% ซึ่งเป็นไปไม่ได้ในทางปฎิบัติ พูดง่ายๆคือ ไม่มีทางหยุดมันได้แล้ว แต่ฉีดวัคซีนเพื่อป้องกันคนให้รอดตายยังเป็นไปได้
อันนีเให้ข้อมูลโดยนักวิจัยของออกฟอร์ดครับ
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical
同時也有6部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過361萬的網紅Dan Lok,也在其Youtube影片中提到,Do You Have What It Takes To Go Through Dan Peña’s Hardcore Seminar? If You Don’t Have It Yet, That’s Okay. Start With Dan Lok’s 3-Step Formula To Suc...
but oxford 在 Facebook 的最讚貼文
I wish I had studied at Oxford! But Hello Sunny Li this picture of me you are using without my permission are taken in Sardinia ya!
My all Dear friends , please help me to report her!🙏🙏🙏
Below is the Sunny Li link:
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100068226471507
but oxford 在 Dr 文科生 Facebook 的最佳解答
上次同大家分享COVID現有的不同治療方案
今日跟大家分享下當一個國家COVID爆發時需要大量接種COVID疫苗時面對的困難和難題
***以下內容只作分享用途,所有臨床診斷的考慮請跟隨個別醫院指引***
首先講講全球最常見較為有效而又打了很多劑的疫苗
Adenovirus vector: AZ and J&J
mRNA: Pfizer-BNT and Moderna
至於另一款疫苗如Novavax或台灣高端由於打的人數不多,就沒有太多數據分享
第一件事要認清的是,由於Delta的出現,疫苗並非神藥,以往大家期望的群體免疫在original或alpha上可能可以達到,但在delta蔓延的今日,似乎有難度。
根據大名鼎鼎的NEJM的研究,兩劑AZ對symptomatic infection的保護率大約為67%、而Pfizer-BNT的保護率大約為88%。不過可惜的是同時間有一些研究,例如牛津大學研究發現當接種疫苗過一段時間後,保護力會漸減,BNT尤其受到時間的影響。
另外,初步數據顯示針對delta,疫苗並不能像alpha或original一樣大幅減少打完疫苗的人的病毒含量。打了疫苗的人的病毒含量跟沒打的相當接近,不過疫苗對防止出現病徵和重症或死亡非常有效,只耐何疫苗來得太遲,delta搶先在世上出現。同時初步數據顯示Delta似乎較alpha/original更大機會出現重症和住院的機會,尤其於年輕人身上,不過這需要更多數據支持。
這代表面對惡名昭彰的Delta,我們不能再依靠打疫苗去保護他人,因為疫苗並不能夠阻止delta asymptomatic transmission。當打完疫苗後的病毒量一樣高時,唯一可以做的便是靠打疫苗保護自己,減低自己感染、住院、重症和死亡風險。
不過當大量接種疫苗時,便會出現一些罕有的副作用,這些副作用醫護人員必須Alert的,而處理這些懷疑的副作用亦對醫療系統造成沉重的負擔。但目前所有大型研究都顯示,疫苗副作用造成對醫療系統的負擔跟任由COVID爆發的社會和醫療成本相比是兩個不同級數的事。
================================
VITTS - Vaccine-induced immune thrombosis thrombocytopenic syndrome
在adenovirus vector的疫苗身上被發現罕有地會出現這種病症。初步數據是懷疑因為出現platelet factor 4 (PF-4) antibodies,原理跟HITTS (Heparin Induced thrombotic thrombocytopenic syndrome)類似。
VITTS多數會出現Cerebral Venous Sinus或Splanchnic thrombosis,但亦可在一般常見的血栓位置,例如DVT or PE but much less likely
一般臨床上可能會出現劇烈頭痛/腹痛/成因不明的瘀血(Petechiae)等等,較常於第一劑的4-42日內出現,亦較常見於年輕女性身上 機率視乎人種和年齡和研究的地方,歐洲數據為約0.00034%的機會出現。同時驗血報告中亦會發現血小板偏低和D-dimer偏高以及positive anti-PF4。
不過值得注意的是即使病發初期血小板和d-dimer正常都不一定沒有VITTS,個別個案可以於24-48小時後才出現這些features,視乎clinical suspicion, serial review and FBC might be indicated
================================
心肌炎及心包炎Myocarditis and pericarditis
在mRNA疫苗身上發現的已知罕有副作用,常見炎第二針後的年輕男性(30歲以下)身上,大多於接種第二針後第1-5日後出現,多以心口痛、心悸、暈厥(Syncope)、呼呼短促(SOB)等呈現,病發機率視乎人種、年齡和性別,美國數據為Myocarditis/Pericarditis - 12.6/million = 0.000126% (American Heart Association)
成因未完全了解,但似乎跟免疫系統激活的過程有關(詳情refer AHA report)。大部分患者病情相對輕微,個別患者可能有ECG dynamic changes, ST elevation, troponin rise, mild reduced LvEF on echo,但大部分患者都在短期內出院with full recovery (96% as per AHA)
值得注意的是,myocarditis在歷史上的其他疫苗例如流感、乙肝、天花(small pox)等等都有罕有的機會出現,約10-20 individual/100000 per year
同時感染COVID或其他病毒性感染的話亦可能會出現myocarditis,臨床懷疑的話或需要ECG, troponin, CXR, +/- echo +/- cardiac MRI
=================================
任何醫療選擇都有風險,當一個國家進行社區大型接種時,便需要處理這些問題,英美兩大國的經驗其實為世人提供了好多寶貴實用的資訊,好讓大家不用走冤枉路。
隨著時間的過去,愈來愈多數據和研究讓大家自行分析,多讀書多看研究才不會被任何人誤導,緊記保持批判性思考,無論任何人的高見都別不經消化和思考去接受。
Reference for further reading
1. ATAGI statement ATAGI statement regarding COVID-19 vaccines in the setting of transmission of the Delta variant of concern
https://www.health.gov.au/news/atagi-statement-regarding-covid-19-vaccines-in-the-setting-of-transmission-of-the-delta-variant-of-concern
2. NEJM - Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891
3. Oxford University Studies Preprint - Vaccines still effective against Delta variant of concern, says Oxford-led study of the COVID-19 Infections Survey
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-08-19-vaccines-still-effective-against-delta-variant-concern-says-oxford-led-study-covid
4. AHA - Myocarditis With COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.121.056135
Photo: internet
but oxford 在 Dan Lok Youtube 的精選貼文
Do You Have What It Takes To Go Through Dan Peña’s Hardcore Seminar? If You Don’t Have It Yet, That’s Okay. Start With Dan Lok’s 3-Step Formula To Success And Wealth In His New Book, Unlock It. Secure Your Copy Here: http://hardcore.danlok.link
In this video, Dan sits down with one of his mentors, Dan Peña the $50 billion dollar man, and discuss Dan Peña’s hardcore seminar. Now, contrary to what you might think, it doesn’t always take money to make money. Watch this video now to discover why Dan Peña’s mentees are able to create multimillion-dollar wealth without their own money.
Dan Peña is the founder of the world-renowned Quantum Leap Advantage (QLA) seminar for super success and wealth. Since 1993, this revolutionary method has helped him and his mentees produce over $50 billion of equities. As a result, he is now recognized as the $50 billion dollar man. Outside his business ventures, Dan Peña has delivered powerful and informative speeches across multiple universities like Oxford University and the US Naval Academy.
? SUBSCRIBE TO DAN'S YOUTUBE CHANNEL NOW ?
https://www.youtube.com/danlok?sub_confirmation=1
Check out these Top Trending Playlists -
1.) Boss In The Bentley - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEmTTOfet46OWsrbWGPnPW8mvDtjge_6-
2.) Sales Tips That Get People To Buy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E6Csz_hvXzw&list=PLEmTTOfet46PvAsPpWByNgUWZ5dLJd_I4
3.) Dan Lok’s Best Secrets - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZNmFJUuTRs&list=PLEmTTOfet46N3NIYsBQ9wku8UBNhtT9QQ
Not long ago, Dan Lok was just a poor immigrant boy. He had nothing but a strong desire to get out of debt and make enough to provide for his single mom. With this strong desire, Dan quit his job as a grocery bagger. He dropped out of college. And he became an entrepreneur.
After 13 failed businesses, Dan finally became a self-made millionaire at age 27 and multi-millionaire by age 30.
Fast forward to today, Dan is now an official Forbes Book author with over 13 internationally best-selling books. He’s the founder and chairman of several multimillion dollar businesses. And outside of his business success, he is one of the most-watched, most quoted and most followed educators of our time. In total, his videos have been watched over 100-million times across his social media platforms. His emails are read by over 2,000,000 people every month.
If you want the no b.s. way to master your financial destiny, then learn from Dan. Subscribe to his channel now.
★☆★ CONNECT WITH DAN ON SOCIAL MEDIA ★☆★
YouTube: http://youtube.danlok.link
Dan Lok Blog: http://blog.danlok.link
Facebook: http://facebook.danlok.link
Instagram: http://instagram.danlok.link
Linkedin: http://mylinkedin.danlok.link
Podcast: http://thedanlokshow.danlok.link
#DanLok #DanPeña #QLASeminar
Please understand that by watching Dan’s videos or enrolling in his programs does not mean you’ll get results close to what he’s been able to do (or do anything for that matter).
He’s been in business for over 20 years and his results are not typical.
Most people who watch his videos or enroll in his programs get the “how to” but never take action with the information. Dan is only sharing what has worked for him and his students.
Your results are dependent on many factors… including but not limited to your ability to work hard, commit yourself, and do whatever it takes.
Entering any business is going to involve a level of risk as well as massive commitment and action. If you're not willing to accept that, please DO NOT WATCH DAN’S VIDEOS OR SIGN UP FOR ONE OF HIS PROGRAMS.
This video is about Dan Peña's Hardcore Seminar
https://youtu.be/HBeS9NaZS8o
https://youtu.be/HBeS9NaZS8o
but oxford 在 Wenwen Stokes Youtube 的最讚貼文
Hey guys.,
Hope you guys enjoy this video. Been collecting a couple high street items here and there and thought id share them all as well as sharing how i'd style the items. Sorry there is a really annoying drilling noise in the background, i didn't address is in the video in case some people may have not noticed it until i say something. To be honest, i would have waited for the construction to stop but 1. living in London means theres ALWAYS noise, but 2. i got so used to it, i didn't hear it when i was filming! I only noticed when i was editing. Anyway, i hope the music helped it a bit :)
Thanks again for watching, below are links to the outfits i've shared.
Outfit 1:
& Other Stories "Paris" top: https://goo.gl/QFy2dt
& other stories hair accessory: https://goo.gl/cUVzQ7
Outfit 2:
Asos Simpsons top: Unfortunately out of stock but search for "The Simpsons X Asos Design" on Asos for other options
Good American Jeans
Fendi boots: https://goo.gl/kfm1Tj
Chanel purse
Outfit 3:
Asos (Pretty Little Thing) bike/legging shorts: https://goo.gl/by3pPb
Brandy Melville top
Outfit 4:
Zara multicolor pleated dress: https://goo.gl/ChHP2m
Chanel purse and mules
Outfit 5:
Zara leopard print playsuit: https://goo.gl/VL1RLF
Louis Vuitton Gilet: Unfortunately, i can't find it online, here is another option though- i have this one as well which would work, however, i prefer the suede gilet for this time of year: https://goo.gl/rEkktc
Saint Laurent boots
Outfit 6:
Zara white skirt: https://goo.gl/7cjKWj
Top shop white top: Unfortunately a lot of the Top Shop things i've bought recently aren't online (yet?)... there were plenty in stock when i last went to the one of Oxford Circus within the last 2 weeks.
Chanel purse from Vestiaire
Zara leopard coat: https://goo.gl/rW39H6
Outfit 7:
Zara white skirt: https://goo.gl/7cjKWj
Top shop white top: Unfortunately a lot of the Top Shop things i've bought recently aren't online (yet?)... there were plenty in stock when i last went to the one of Oxford Circus within the last 2 weeks.
Chanel purse from Vestiaire
Dior boots
Outfit 8:
Top shop Gold suit: Unfortunately a lot of the Top Shop things i've bought recently aren't online (yet?)... there were plenty in stock when i last went to the one of Oxford Circus within the last 2 weeks.
Fendi purse
Chanel flats
Outfit 9:
Top shop blue faux fur jacket: https://goo.gl/vpcLQq
Asos (Pretty Little Thing) bike/legging shorts: https://goo.gl/by3pPb
Brandy Melville top
Chanel purse
Outfit 10:
Top shop red coat: Top shop Gold suit: Unfortunately a lot of the Top Shop things i've bought recently aren't online (yet?)... there were plenty in stock when i last went to the one of Oxford Circus within the last 2 weeks.
Louis Vuitton purse
Dior boots
but oxford 在 Pamme Lim Youtube 的最佳貼文
✩ DISCOUNT VOUCHER → https://bit.ly/2Ahg7oc
Please download this file to redeem your discount voucher from the Tourist Information once you have arrived in Bicester Village.
✩ SHOPPING EXPRESS DISCOUNTS:
Promo Code → BVTHAILAND
Booking → https://bit.ly/2Olf0XH
✩ THAI VERSION: coming soon
✩ ABOUT BICESTER VILLAGE:
#BicesterVillage offers goods from some of the most internationally recognised brands with attractive discounted prices. They are located near Oxford, and a train ride away from London, UK.
From 1st Oct 2018, there will be updates regarding the London hotels pickup locations as follow:
09.15 Golden Tours Office, Fountain Square, Victoria
09.35 Cumberland Hotel, Great Cumberland Place, Marble Arch
10.00 Hilton Kensington Hotel, Holland Park Avenue
This video is the first video of #TheLondonSeries.
✩ Similar Videos:
WERTHEIM VILLAGE (Germany) → https://youtu.be/p440DvHTPjg
PARIS HAUL (France) → https://youtu.be/MmjrbwA5wFI
✩ About Me:
My name is Pamme Lim. I'm still deciding my area of expertise to be worth sharing on YouTube, but for now, I often create videos about travel and beauty. More lifestyle videos are definitely on my to-do list. Stay subscribe if this sounds like your cup of tea: http://youtube.com/pammelim
✩ Follow me on my social media:
My Blog → https://pammelim.com
Instagram → https://instagram.com/pammelim
Facebook → https://facebook.com/pammelim
Twitter → https://twitter.com/pammelim
Food Instagram → https://instagram.com/foodloverbk
✩ Contact me:
E-mail → pammelim7@gmail.com
✩ Music → In My Dreams by Lakey Inspired
https://soundcloud.com/lakeyinspired