關於 consumer sentiment ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻最近加入了大學校友會FB的私群, 意外與社團學長喜相逢. 優秀學長的投資方向跟我不同, 不過粉絲頁挺有料. 在此推薦:

麥思觀點 Max Investing
https://www.facebook.com/max.investing

🌻逼自己不看盤的方法之一, 就是卯起來做研究, 看資料.

下面這張圖(附圖1), 是我抓了幾個知名電商來做比較. 疫情加速了電商的發展, 當然也會改變一些公司的體質. 其中可以看出, ETSY的營收成長較疫情發生前, 改變最多, 所以我覺得值得去研究一下.

而前幾天在看ETSY的財報, 發現他們成長率比一些電商高, 但估值便宜, 讓我覺得很奇怪. 這有可能是跟他們的TAM(total addressable market)有關. 也可能是因為他們處理的商品是consumer discretionary(非必須民生消費品), 被給的估值也會受到影響. 您的看法呢?

Anyway. 一般來說, 用戶或是客戶, 會是業績的先行指標, 尤其對ETSY來說, habitual buyers(一年購物6次以上的買家)更具指標性(因為花費會比較多, 也比較有黏著性). 如果對ETSY有興趣的話, 可以去關注他們的habitual buyers的增長行為(請見附圖2).

Wayfair(W)的股價波動很大, 因為營收也不穩. 這會很考驗投資人的心情. 分析師也不喜歡. 不過如果是長線投資又看好, 那就有耐心等公司體質變好也行. "On Wall Street, most analysts hate surprises, favoring companies with steady predictable earnings growth."

🌻好書推薦: "當代財經大師的選股邏輯課：5招頂尖投資機構不外傳的關鍵選股技術"

下周我會為這本書寫一篇心得文, 因為這跟我的投資活動很相關. 現在先分享這本好書, 告知大家這本書即將上市了.

🌻從財報看市場情緒

不知道大家有沒有發現一件事, 就是最近很多科技好股發表財報, 雖然業績不錯, 但是之後都沒在漲呢? 這是一個可以看市場情緒(market sentiment)的好方法之一.

[上週計畫中的功課: Microsoft (MSFT) (challenge #3), Tesla (TSLA)財報 (challenge #4)---Done!]
[本週準備耳朵長繭, 枸杞茶待命: 閱讀財報 Challenge #5~#10(暫定): Visa(V), Shopify(SHOP), Spotify(SPOT), PayPal(PYPL), Amazon(AMZN), Pinterest(PINS).

🌻
關於本週發表財報的一些公司, 我之前有整理了些資料&寫過文章. 有興趣的讀者可看看:

Alphabet Q1 2020財報Q&A簡單整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/alphabet-googl.html

Amazon上季財報結果整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/amazon-amzn.html

PayPal上季財報結果整理:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/etc-paypal-pypl.html

Pinterest研究筆記:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/pinterest-pins.html

Spotify研究筆記:
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2020/03/spotify-spot.html

Wingstop公司介紹文(有兩篇.....這是上篇. 請自行搜尋下篇):
https://www.stockfeel.com.tw/wingstop%EF%BC%88wing-us%EF%BC%89%E5%9F%BA%E6%9C%AC%E4%BB%8B%E7%B4%B9/

🌻
疫情發生後, 美國人對於疫情產生的一些現象(在家工作, 用app訂餐, 在家運動, 遠距看病, etc.)看法為何? 哪些因為疫情而造成的生活上的改變, 他們認為會繼續存在呢?

麥肯錫做了份研調, 很好看:
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/survey-us-consumer-sentiment-during-the-coronavirus-crisis

我截了幾張圖, 放在下面, 並在圖片旁做了一些解釋.

🌻
今天天氣好潮濕又熱........讓我想到台灣.......不能出外走走, 只好在家開冷氣寫分析文了. 好久沒寫文章, 手真的會癢😅. 而也很意外地, 不到一天就把文章寫了九成(研究民生消費相關的個股, 真的像是回到了mothership(就是有回到家的感覺😅), 也能夠一下子就抓到重點. 一邊寫, 其實心裡也對能不能投資這家公司, 有了答案.

希望週四能夠完成&發表. 這家公司, 女性投資人一定會喜歡😉

先賣個關子, 不過這家公司跟英國高級百貨公司Browns有很大的關係. 在此分享個時尚流行產業小故事:

【Browns的創辦人，無數大牌設計師的商業伯樂】
(簡體字新聞)
http://www.myvipsalon.com/content/custom/20160224/c3b3f4f0973f54f.shtml

"被尊稱為的Mr.B的Joan Burstein夫人更是以發掘設計天才著稱，包括John Galliano，Alexander McQueen以及Hussein Chalayan在未大紅大紫時布朗斯都曾為他們銷售時裝，Mrs. B同時早期就將吉爾·桑德（Jil Sander），唐娜·卡倫（Donna Karan），加默（Comme des Garons）和喬治·阿瑪尼（Giorgio Armani）等設計師介紹到英國市場。"

而這個新聞跟這家公司沒有直接關係, 但是很有趣:
向年輕世代靠攏！LV、Gucci與遊戲合作的背後，新一代潮流正在形成: https://www.beautimode.com/article/content/87579/

🌻
這陣子Tesla好出風頭, 呵. 連我媽都知道了.

號稱矽谷最聰明投資人的Chamath Palihapitiya, 前幾天也上了CNBC的節目, 發表了他對Tesla的看法(他也是Tesla投資人):
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-what-tslaq-got-wrong-chamath-tsla/

"From Day 1, you have had this massive tension between the bulls and the bears on this company. The bulls basically saw a long-term trend around electrification and the bears tried to play with balance-sheet mathematics," says @chamath on Tesla $TSLA

而這段話, 有很好的鼓勵作用:
“I think this is a really important example of much bigger trend that’s happening in the stock market, which is that retail investors now have access to so much information that it’s almost on parity with people that work in traditional investment organizations. And what we’ve seen as that happened, is that the quality of that analysis and the ability to see around the corner is as good and in many cases, better than traditional investment firms in the way they view the problem,” he said.

共勉之. Have a nice week.

Picture來源:
EarningsWhispers, 麥肯錫報告.

Even before Chinese retailers stripped NBA merchandise from their shelves in retaliation for a league executive’s public support of pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong, a yearlong trade war has stoked a surge in Chinese nationalism and anti-American sentiment that’s increasingly bleeding into marketing decisions and consumer buying habits. Companies such as Apple Inc. have seen market share in the country dwindle. And American brands including Coach and Calvin Klein have rushed to issue public apologies after some of their products ran afoul of Beijing’s political sensitivities. Even if a trade truce is reached, marketing executives say that lasting brand damage has been done.

Some American companies now worry that a preference for buying Chinese could morph into an all-out boycott of U.S. goods, as happened when Beijing banned consumers from buying South Korea’s goods in retaliation for its government saying in 2016 it would let the U.S. build a missile defense system in the country. The results of that action: Korean companies lost an estimated $15.6 billion in revenue, hitting giants such as supermarket operator Lotte Shopping Co. and Hyundai Motor Co.particularly hard, according to the Hyundai Research Institute.