Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time
The world is almost certainly ensnared ( ) in a devastating ( ) recession ( ) delivered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Now, fears are growing that the downturn ( ) could be far more punishing and long lasting than initially feared — potentially enduring ( ) into next year, and even beyond — as governments intensify ( ) restrictions on business to halt ( ) the spread of the pandemic, and as fear of the virus reconfigures ( ) the very concept of public space, impeding ( ) consumer-led economic growth.
So long as human interaction remains dangerous, business cannot responsibly return to normal. And what was normal before may not be anymore. People may be less inclined to ( ) jam into crowded restaurants and concert halls even after the virus is contained ( ).
The abrupt halt of commercial activity threatens to impose ( ) economic pain so profound and enduring in every region of the world at once that recovery could take years. The losses to companies, many already saturated ( ) with debt, risk triggering ( ) a financial crisis of cataclysmic ( ) proportions.
“This is already shaping up as the deepest dive on record for the global economy for over 100 years,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, a Harvard University economist. “Everything depends on how long it lasts, but if this goes on for a long time, it’s certainly going to be the mother of all financial crises.”
The situation looks uniquely dire ( ) in developing countries, which have seen investment rush for the exits this year, sending currencies ( ) plummeting ( ), forcing people to pay more for imported food and fuel, and threatening governments with insolvency ( ) — while the pandemic threatens to overwhelm ( ) inadequate ( ) medical systems.
Among investors, a hopeful scenario holds currency: Once the virus is contained, enabling people to return to offices and shopping malls, life will snap back ( ) to normal.
But the world that emerges ( ) is likely to be choked ( ) with trouble, challenging the recovery. Mass joblessness ( ) exacts societal costs. Widespread bankruptcy ( ) could leave industry in a weakened state, depleted ( ) of investment and innovation.
If anxiety endures and people are reluctant to spend, expansion will be limited — especially as continued vigilance ( ) against the coronavirus may be required for years.
“The psychology won’t just bounce back,” said Charles Dumas, chief economist at TS Lombard, an investment research firm in London. “People have had a real shock. The recovery will be slow, and certain behavior patterns ( ) are going to change, if not forever at least for a long while.”
COVID-19大流行 全球經濟復甦恐將遙遙無期
這個世界幾乎可以確定，已經因冠狀病毒大流行而陷入毀滅性經濟衰退。
人們現在日益擔心，由於各國加強限制商業活動以阻止疫病蔓延，加上對此病毒的恐懼重新界定了公共空間的概念，導致消費導向型經濟成長受阻，經濟衰退期只怕會比當初擔心的更為艱難與持久，可能持續到明年，甚至更久。
只要人際互動依然危險，商業就無法可靠地恢復正常。以前視為平常的事恐將永遠不再如常了。即便在病毒受到控制後，人們也不再那麼願意擠進擁擠的餐廳和音樂廳了。
商業活動突然停止，可能立即給世界各地帶來深刻而持久的經濟痛苦，以致可能需要數年才能復甦。許多公司已經負債累累，這些損失有可能引發一場規模巨大的金融危機。
哈佛大學經濟學家羅格夫說：「這是一百多年來，全球經濟紀錄上最嚴重的衰退。一切都取決於它會持續多久，但若這種情況持續很長，它肯定會成為所有金融危機的根源。」
開發中國家的情況看來尤其嚴峻，這些國家今年出現投資退潮情形，導致幣值暴跌，人們被迫為進口食品與燃料支付更多費用，並且使政府面對無力償債的危機，而這個全球大流行疾病有可能壓垮不健全的醫療體系。
在投資人看來，一種充滿希望的前景仍然存在，即一旦病毒受到控制，人們能夠重新回到辦公室與購物中心，生活將迅速恢復正常。
然而，新出現的世界很可能會陷入困境，使經濟復甦受到挑戰。大規模失業使社會付出代價。普遍的破產恐使得產業處於虛弱狀態，致使投資與創新能力枯竭。
若焦慮持續且人們不願花錢，經濟擴張將會相當有限，尤其是在可能必須對冠狀病毒持續保持警戒許多年的情況下。
倫敦投資研究公司TS Lombard首席經濟學家查理．杜馬斯說：「人們的心理不會輕易就恢復。人們受到了很大的震撼。恢復過程將是緩慢的，某些行為模式將會改變，就算不是永久性的，至少也會持續很長一段時間。」
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