關於 economic stimulus ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

《來學學股價漲跌的說法》

例句翻譯👇

📈 rally 恢復；回升
The stock prices rallied amid growing optimism that the government would launch an economic stimulus package.
由於對政府將推出經濟刺激計劃的樂觀情緒日益增強，股價回升。

📈 rise 上漲
He sold his shares as soon as the stock prices rose.
股價一上漲，他就賣掉了他的股票。

📈 soar / skyrocket 大幅上漲
In anticipation of a new deal to be struck, the stock prices of the company soared / skyrocketed yesterday.
因預期新交易即將達成，該公司股價昨日飆升/暴漲。

📉 crash 崩盤
Many people panicked when the stock prices crashed this morning.
今天早上股價暴跌時，很多人都驚慌失措。

📉 decline 下跌
The stock shares declined sharply on Wednesday as inflation data triggered massive selling.
由於通脹數據引發大規模拋售，股價週三大幅下跌。

📉 plunge / plummet 大幅下跌
The stock shares plunged / plummeted and closed at a new low.
股價大幅下跌/暴跌，收於新低。

🟠🔹2021最新作品已上架🔹🔴

🎀 專為「英語自學者」所編寫的
《Ken的寫作筆記A+B》

🛒 購買點這裡 👉 https://is.gd/HpAyRn

圖片來源: https://www.google.com.tw/

#八百回合經濟談⁡
〔#讓振興券飛一會兒 #是逆風高飛還是卵覆鳥飛？〕⁡
⁡
⁡
上禮拜的 #桃園市普發五千 提到發放振興券或現金對財政健全的傷害，這週政經八百就帶壯士們談談——振興券究竟有沒有效果？⁡
⁡
⁡
▌ 振興券呼聲再起⁡
⁡
在近乎完美防守一年多後，今年五月台灣進入三級警戒，迎來的是各大產業的生意下滑，許多人的生計因此受到影響。⁡
⁡
這樣的背景下，出現不少重發振興券或是普發現金的呼聲。⁡
⁡
由於許多人抱怨之前的振興券使用複雜，而且要掏出 1000 元才能換取總共 3000 元的券；⁡
⁡
再加上實體券印製和配發成本高，很多人希望政府直接普發現金，以減去不必要的浪費。⁡
⁡
但是普發現金真的比振興券好嗎？振興券究竟能不能有效紓困疫情的衝擊？⁡
⁡
⁡
▌ 需求面的財政政策⁡
⁡
不論是普發現金還是發放振興券，原理都是基於傳統凱因斯的理論：⁡
⁡
透過增加民眾所得來刺激民眾的消費，從而使企業的收入上升，避免企業在不景氣時解雇員工而造成失業。⁡
⁡
理論上，增加的收入也會進到員工的口袋，從而進一步增加消費，自此無限循環。⁡
⁡
但是天下沒有白吃的午餐，發放現金和振興券的財源都是民眾繳納的稅負！⁡
⁡
要是政府發了 100 萬，全國增加的收入卻不足100萬，等於全國民眾實際上付出了更高的代價來刺激消費。⁡
⁡
因此，這時候政策能不能催出比成本更多的消費便十分關鍵。⁡
⁡
⁡
▌ 財政乘數⁡
⁡
財政乘數簡單來說，就是政府每發放 1 元，我們國內的總所得（GDP）會上升多少元。⁡
⁡
在普發現金的情況下，民眾可以輕易地把部分現金存入，並選擇不消費，而企業也不會因此收入增加。⁡
⁡
這樣一來，財政乘數就會很低，振興的效果便不容易達成。⁡
⁡
近期幾篇對美國在疫情期間紓困的研究發現，民眾收到現金以後，存款有顯著的上升。⁡
⁡
紓困金中僅有 35% 左右用於消費，且消費的商品集中於本來就會使用的生活必需品。⁡
⁡
考量到亞洲人普遍儲蓄率高，在台灣普發現金對刺激景氣的效果可能更差。⁡
⁡
相反的，我國去年發放的振興券則要求民眾先將手上的現金拿去兌換實體券，這樣不但沒辦法將這筆錢存入，還得在時效內使用於特定商家，迫使民眾必須增加消費，進而振興經濟。⁡
⁡
然而，這樣的實體券仍然會出現與現金相同的替代問題：⁡
⁡
民眾用得來的振興券來購買本來就會用現金購買的生活必需品，把原本會使用的現金存起來，導致消費其實終究沒有增加。⁡
⁡
⁡
▌ 財政政策的延遲⁡
⁡
普發現金和振興券除了對於刺激整體經濟效果有限，他們也很可能無法及時紓困到快要撐不住的中小企業。⁡
⁡
財政政策在總體經濟領域最為人詬病的一點就是「政策延遲」：疫情自五月爆發至今已近三個月，撐不住的中小企業在這段期間很可能已經關閉。⁡
⁡
政府如果九月發放振興券，民眾如果十月才消費、把錢花出去，振興券的好處也進不到這些已經關閉的中小企業手中。⁡
⁡
連帶地，受到影響而失業的員工也因為沒有收入來源，僅能將領到的振興券或現金花在生活必需品上。⁡
⁡
他們不但不會因此額外支出並刺激消費，也因為沒有工作而無法收到振興券所帶來的好處。⁡
⁡
普發的現金和振興券最終可能會集中到不需要紓困的企業手裡，反而失去了紓困的原意。⁡
⁡
⁡
▌ 小結⁡
⁡
雖然振興券實際的成效仍然需要更多的資料來評估，但以上這些因素，都使得普發現金或振興券未必能夠達成紓困和振興經濟的目標。⁡
⁡
目前政府針對受影響的企業和員工所提供的紓困金，可能會比振興券在減少失業、保障中低收入戶所得上更為直接有效。⁡
⁡
⁡
參考資料：⁡
Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L., & Werning, I. (2020). Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages? (No. w26918). National Bureau of Economic Research.⁡
⁡
Bi, H., & Gulati, C. (2021). Fiscal Relief during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Economic Review, 106(2), 5-24.⁡
⁡
Karger, E., & Rajan, A. (2020). Heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume: evidence from Covid-19 stimulus payments.⁡
⁡
⁡
#臺灣 #生活 #政經八百 #知識 #大學生 #經濟 #經濟學 #台灣 #科普 #科普經濟 #懶人包 #普發 #發現金 #現金 #紓困 #振興 #振興券 #政策

🌻上周六的估值會議影片, 已經將part 1上傳至YouTube. 股友分享的case study之後會再分享:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvSFMAKkOo8

謝謝參與的股友們!

🌻整理了一下最近的一些市場狀態(from WSJ):

1. S&P 500很安靜; 從去年10月後, 就沒有超過5%的修正.
(上次SPY那麼安靜, 是在2017時(那時候的安靜期也比現在長), 接下來在2018就有一個劇烈的修正).

2. Russell 2000盤整了一段時間
-->有可能是之前漲多了(或是投資人在觀望經濟前景?); 財報好的話, 或許能繼續推升(the outsize earnings growth by small-caps is expected to continue throughout the year, with Russell 2000 profits projected to more than quadruple (四倍) from a year earlier in the third quarter, while S&P 500 earnings rise above 25%).

The Russell 2000 traded at the end of June at 17.7 times its projected earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 21.5 times for the Russell 1000 large-cap index, according to BofA Global Research.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets said in a recent research report that small-cap stocks have tended to outperform large-caps when economic growth is above its long-term average. That is expected to be the case this year and next, but potentially not in 2023, they wrote.

“Small-caps being more sensitive to economic acceleration, as that slows down, I think the relative attractiveness of small-caps will subside a little bit,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial Inc.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-stocks-look-to-extend-winning-streak-11625650200

3. TINA(there is no alternative to stocks)
因為低利率以及紓困案, 資金充裕, 跑到股市, 但因投資人對經濟前景的不確定性(可能也加上散戶投資人資金充沛), 導致類股輪動劇烈(sharp & swift), 也導致成長股與價值股的正相關性變低(近期兩者是同時在漲)(“You’ve got lots of volatility within the market buy not a lot of volatility of the market.”)

4. 而上周的Fed會議紀錄, 也顯示出官員們開始debate何時要做資金退場的動作.

Fed的動作, 以及接下來的財報季, 會給投資人一個方向. 也要注意labor market(“It hasn’t made enough progress” for the Fed to pull back on stimulus programs”).

5. 目前的一些問題: Delta variant, labor shortage, bottleneck(供應鏈), etc.

🌻Q3的財報季要開始了. 本周由銀行股打頭陣. 附上本周發表公司財報一覽表.

🌻有不少年輕世代, 會利用交友軟體, 來找普通朋友, 不是用軟體來找對象.

In a recent survey of more than 300 members of Generation Z aged 16 to 24 in the U.S., 35% said they have used dating apps to make platonic friends over the past 12 months, according to OnePulse, a consumer insight app and web portal, which conducted the poll for The Wall Street Journal. Nearly 27% said they used dating apps to make friends because they were lonely in lockdown. More women than men—39% vs. 29%—said they used dating apps to make platonic friends.

Looking for a Friend Without Benefits? Try Match, Bumble and Tinder.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/looking-for-a-friend-without-benefits-try-match-bumble-and-tinder-11625675336

Picture: Feeling agitated. 被關了一年多, 其實最想去的地方之一, 是美術館, 或是博物館. 在YouTube上看影片的感覺, 就是跟現場親臨不一樣. Anyway. 從今天開始, 我會把之前從museums拍到的一些照片在這邊分享. 也算是做個回憶. 下面這張是Washington D.C.的National Art Gallery所珍藏的Magnolia: https://www.nga.gov/collection/art-object-page.93464.html

#cuocsongmy #stimuluscheck #kinhtemy #chibrugh
Link website: https://www.forbes.com/sites/allbusiness/2020/04/08/stimulus-payment-direct-deposit-steps/#3cf6c85375ca
Website IRS: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/economic-impact-payments-what-you-need-to-know

Kênh CHI Vlog (http://bit.ly/2FE9L5h) để chia sẻ với tất cả các bạn về cuộc sống của người Việt trên xứ Mỹ, cảm ơn mọi người đã ghé thăm và hãy ủng hộ cho mình. Hãy đăng ký theo dõi bẵng cách nhấn Subscribe ( http://bit.ly/2FE9L5h ) Like và Share Video của mình cho mọi người cùng xem nhé.
Trân trọng cảm ơn các bạn rất nhiều!

Tour Taiwan with me: http://taiwantoursm13.com/

Private Channel: https://www.patreon.com/M13

My Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Mordeth13

Support M13 buy my Private Series: http://www.m13online.com/?page_id=294

World's best motorcycle pants are RHOK (search Ebay for them) Macarena?