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關於 fake democracy ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

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在fake democracy這個產品中，有55篇Facebook貼文，粉絲數超過7萬的網紅Apple Daily - English Edition，也在其Facebook貼文中提到， It may constitute a crime, including one that violated national security, if a fake news story was intended to incite hatred and to divide society, he...
　同時也有5部Youtube影片，追蹤數超過5,140的網紅Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音，也在其Youtube影片中提到，“Democracy is a failure” - that’s the narrative the Chinese Communist Party has been trying to plant over the past year and hopes to take root in inte...

fake democracy 在 Apple Daily - English Edition Facebook 的最佳貼文

Apple Daily - English Edition By Apple Daily - English Edition

2021-05-11 22:30:20 有 17 人按讚
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It may constitute a crime, including one that violated national security, if a fake news story was intended to incite hatred and to divide society, he warned. “I cannot ignore it. I have to deal with it,” police commissioner Chris Tang said.

Read more: https://bit.ly/3w19NZV

警務處處長鄧炳強提到外國記者會質疑他評論「假新聞」。他指若「假新聞」煽動仇恨、分化社會、挑撥仇恨，便有機會構成罪案，包括涉及國家安全，「咁我唔理都唔得，係要去處理」。
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Apple Daily is the most outspoken pro-democracy media in Hong Kong. Founded by Jimmy Lai in 1995. Learn more about the English edition: http://bit.ly/2ZYKpHP
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fake democracy 在 Apple Daily - English Edition Facebook 的最讚貼文

Apple Daily - English Edition By Apple Daily - English Edition

2021-04-30 23:30:46 有 12 人按讚
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#Opinion by Au Ka-lun 區家麟｜"Whenever it comes to swearing an oath to pledge loyalty, civil servants staying politically neutral, patriotic education, national security, regulating public broadcasting and enactment of laws against fake news, allegiant and able patriots will say “”in other countries as well”, “global standard”. However, when it comes to democracy and fair voting, they will say we have our one with “Chinese characteristics”, and the one from the West does not suit Chinese people. A fraud repeated ten thousand times is still a fraud. Their cheap tricks laid bare, the brazen swindlers will feign chuckling, and make sure the show goes on."

Read more: https://bit.ly/3t167FH

"每當講到宣誓效忠、公務員中立、愛國教育、國家安全、監管公共廣播，立法打擊假新聞，忠誠的愛國能人就會謂「外國都係咁做」，乃「世界標準」；但一談民主制度、公平投票，就說我有我「中國特色」，中國人不來這一套。騙局重複一萬次，仍然是騙局；神棍的把戲被揭穿，他們厚顏，會偽裝微笑，繼續演下去。"
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Apple Daily - English Edition

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Apple Daily is the most outspoken pro-democracy media in Hong Kong. Founded by Jimmy Lai in 1995. Learn more about the English edition: http://bit.ly/2ZYKpHP
69449 followers 59446 likes "http://appledaily.com/engnews/"
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fake democracy 在 方保僑 Francis Fong Facebook 的最讚貼文

方保僑 Francis Fong By 方保僑 Francis Fong

2020-12-07 13:28:42 有 3 人按讚
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Social-media companies have had to tighten their control over users’ posts as they try to weed out fake news from genuine content on their platforms, said Francis Fong, honorary president of the Hong Kong Information Technology Federation.

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方保僑先生，資訊科技及數碼媒體專家，於am730、信報、蘋果日報、香港電?
6437 followers 6207 likes "http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%96%B9%E4%BF%9D%E5%83%91"
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fake democracy 在 Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 Youtube 的最讚貼文

Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 By Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音

2021-06-21 23:25:32 有 154 人看過 有 4 人喜歡
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“Democracy is a failure” - that’s the narrative the Chinese Communist Party has been trying to plant over the past year and hopes to take root in international discourse and in the minds of its 1.4 billion citizens. This disinformation has heavy implications for democracy in Taiwan, and it’s never been as serious as it is now.

CCP disinformation methods are detailed in a report issued late last year titled “Deafening Whispers” by Doublethink Lab, a Taiwanese organization whose mission is to strengthen democracy through digital defense. The report has just been made available in English.

This interview was recorded in January 2021 when the Chinese-version of the report was first published.

Online disinformation and influence operations affect offline real-world defense and security. Fake news is a global issue and this is The Taiwan Take. Today’s guest is Dr. Puma Shen (沈伯洋), chairman of Doublethink Lab (台灣民主實驗室) and an assistant professor at National Taipei University.


Deafening Whispers: https://medium.com/doublethinklab/deafening-whispers-f9b1d773f6cd

Today’s episode is hosted by J.R. Wu - Chief of the Secretariat for INDSR (Institute for National Defense and Security Research) in Taiwan. Wu is a former journalist with nearly two decades of media experience in the US and Asia. She has led news bureaus for Reuters and Dow Jones.

Support us on Patreon: http://patreon.com/taiwan
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ghostislandme

SHOW CREDIT

JR Wu (Host)
Emily Y. Wu (Producer): https://twitter.com/emilyywu
Alice Yeh (Editing | Researcher)
Music: MB013KF2YKVG19A

A Ghost Island Media production
www.ghostisland.media

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Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音

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We build podcasts with breakout voices and brands. +++ 大麻煩不煩 https://ghostisland.media/#law 嘖嘖集資計劃 https://www.zeczec.com/projects/ghostislandme?r=99798cd2c6 -- Waste Not Why Not https://ghostisland.media/#wnwn Patreon https://www.patreon.com/wastenotwhynot -- The Taiwan Take https://ghostisland.media/#ttt Patreon https://www.patreon.com/taiwan -- Metalhead Politics https://ghostisland.media/#mp -- 小鬼登島 In Training https://ghostisland.media/#intern +++
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fake democracy 在 Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 Youtube 的最佳貼文

Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音 By Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音

2021-06-21 23:01:52 有 809 人看過 有 0 人喜歡
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PTT is one of the most open social media platforms in the Chinese language. Though it’s not more populous than Facebook, it’s arguably more impactful than Facebook here in Taiwan. It’s a reflection of Taiwan's spirited democracy, and it’s used heavily as a source for local journalists.

We speak with two INDSR researchers on a year-long project, “A Pilot Study on PTT in the Context of Influence Operations” (批踢踢影響力作戰前導研究）which attempts to identify CCP state actors on the platfor. The researchers are Oddis J.F. Tsai (Policy Analyst at the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources) and Dr. Jui-Ming Hung (Assistant Research Fellow at the Division of Defense Strategy and Resources).

The paper lays out mechanics and - through quantitative analysis - identifies types of suspect behavior on the world’s largest non-commercial, forum-based, open-source online bulletin board system in the Chinese language. This interview was recorded in January 2021 after the paper was published by INDSR.

Today’s host is J.R. Wu - a non-resident advisor at INDSR (Institute for National Defense and Security Research) in Taiwan. Wu is a former journalist with nearly two decades of media experience in the US and Asia. She has led news bureaus for Reuters and Dow Jones.

Support us on Patreon: http://patreon.com/taiwan
Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ghostislandme

EPISODE CREDIT

JR Wu (Host)
Emily Y. Wu (Producer, Editing): https://twitter.com/emilyywu
Alice Yeh (Researcher)
Music: MB01I2MT5YPZMMW

A Ghost Island Media production
www.ghostisland.media

post-title
Ghost Island Media 鬼島之音

About author
We build podcasts with breakout voices and brands. +++ 大麻煩不煩 https://ghostisland.media/#law 嘖嘖集資計劃 https://www.zeczec.com/projects/ghostislandme?r=99798cd2c6 -- Waste Not Why Not https://ghostisland.media/#wnwn Patreon https://www.patreon.com/wastenotwhynot -- The Taiwan Take https://ghostisland.media/#ttt Patreon https://www.patreon.com/taiwan -- Metalhead Politics https://ghostisland.media/#mp -- 小鬼登島 In Training https://ghostisland.media/#intern +++
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fake democracy 在 范琪斐 Youtube 的精選貼文

范琪斐 By 范琪斐

2020-10-16 22:00:09 有 6,457 人看過 有 95 人喜歡
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歡迎收看范琪斐的寰宇漫遊，今天的琪斐大放送我們要來談談，2020美國總統大選民調一面倒的說拜登贏川普一大截，川貴人，這次別選了吧?乖～我待會給你買個....樓?大家好，我是范琪斐。中間偏右的《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）聯手中間偏左的《國家廣播公司》（NBC），在「川拜」首場辯論後，到川普確診前這段時間，所做的民調顯示，拜登的支持率高達53%，足足領先川普14個百分點（53%：39%）。真的假的啦～這個幅度也太誇張，我們再參考一下別的。

（10/11公布）美國ABC News和《華盛頓郵報》（The Washington Post），在川普出院後做的最新民調，有54%的選民說會把票投給拜登，大幅領先川普12個百分點（54%：42%）。專門統計各家民調數據的Five Thirty Eight指出，拜登的平均支持率勝過川普10.4個百分點（52.2%：41.9%， 10/10數據）。另一個民調數據集合網站「真清晰政治」（Real Clear Politics）的網站顯示，從10月以來每一家主要民調公司統計出的結果，都是拜登遙遙領先川普，差距在5到16個百分點不等，其中不乏立場較為中間的The Hill和經濟學人。所以平均下來拜登的支持率領先9.8個百分點。（10/9公布）美國權威智庫與民調機構「皮尤研究中心」（Pew Research Center）做出來的結果是，52%的選民打算把票投給拜登，領先川普10個百分點（52%：42%）。

我們找了很多民調,可是只有很少數的說，川普領先拜登， 說很少數，是怕我們川貴人傷心，其實找來找去只有一個。 （10/5公布）英國《每日快報》聯手英美智庫Democracy Institute做的民調顯示，川普支持率在46%，小勝拜登1個百分點（46%：45%）。不過我還是註明一下，這個《每日快報》是英國的右翼八卦報，民主研究所的民調，也沒有被民調界公信力很高的538列入參考的近500家民調就是了， 所以現在大多數民調都顯示，拜登會獲得壓倒性勝利，但川貴人當然不認為他會選輸啊，最近又在那邊「Fake news」、「Fake polls」喊來喊去，民調統統都是假的！這都是幻覺～嚇不倒我的！

先不要笑，川貴人說的是真的，4年前一直到投票日當天早上，民調都還顯示希拉蕊一定會凍蒜，《紐約時報》做了大半年的民調，到選舉當天早上，還在說希拉蕊有80%以上的勝選機會，結果最後被「逆轉」，搖擺州統統被川貴人拿下！2016年的民調，被很多人認為是「壞掉了」、「走鐘了」，完全無法反映出真實民意，今年隨著大選日逼近，也有越來越多人開始質疑，真的假的啊?這幾年來專家們一直試圖釐清，當年的「希拉蕊慘案」到底是怎麼出現的，總之過去四年民調專家就很努力的要找出，民調為什麼會跟開出來的票差那麼多，但真的非常困難，因為變數實在太多了，我們今天就幫大家整理出幾個專家們認為可能的原因。

（一）手機的普及
還記得去年台灣不是在吵「手機民調要不要納入總統初選民調」嗎？美國其實也有類似的問題。美國現在就跟台灣「人手一機」一樣，有時候還兩三機，越來越少人使用家用電話了，而且年輕人、低收入者以及少數族群，都只用手機而已；反觀年長者和白人族群，就會比較依賴室內電話。大數據分析網站《Datanami》就指出，25歲左右的年輕人看到不認識的電話，幾乎都會pass不接；但70歲的長輩們則是每通必接，因此這樣進行的電話民調就很容易往某一族群傾斜。

那用手機民調不行嗎？根據1991年的《電話消費者保護法》（Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991；TCPA），美國是禁止「自動撥號系統」打電話給手機用戶的，所以如果要打手機做民調，就必須派出「真人」撥號，這有多麻煩呢？數據顯示，你想獲得1,000個回答，就至少得隨機撥號2萬次，其中大部分是空號，因為手機號碼是私人的，根本不會刊登在電話簿上，這實在太勞民傷財了，很想幫做民調的人馬殺雞一下耶，你們辛苦了。

（二）沉默的多數
每次選舉我都很期待接到民調電話，但大多數美國人可不是這麼想的，可能是因為擔憂個資和隱私外洩，導致選民接電話不敢說出真實意見，或者是覺得，蛤～民調很久欸，老娘才沒空理你。1970年代左右，美國「民調回應率」（Polls response rate）高達80%，你只要打過去人家多半都會回答你，但是根據「皮尤研究中心」最新報告，2018年美國「民調回應率」已經暴跌到6%，等於你打100通電話就只有6個人不掛你電話、願意花時間跟你聊兩句，但你也不知道他是不是講真話。

像2016年的大選，支持川普的選民中，就有一群選前不願意表態的，或者在接受民調時故意說謊的，有些甚至不告訴鄰居他們其實支持川普。《Datanami》表示，這些選民會讓調查的結果失準2%到6%，6%很多欸，根本就是超出誤差範圍了。

（三）網路民調難
啊現在網路那麼發達，用網路做民調不就統統搞定了嗎？事實上恐怕剛好相反。數據顯示美國18-29歲的年輕人，有98%都使用網路，但偏偏這個年齡層的人最不愛投票，拿美國總統大選風向球：2018年美國期中選舉為例，雖然這群年輕人投票率比前一次大幅提高15.7個百分點，但仍是所有年齡層中最低的（35.6%），也就是說，每個人都是「鍵盤投手」，大家網路上搖旗吶喊超熱情，結果投票日當天大家都覺得不差我這一票。另一方面，你在網路上想填幾歲就幾歲，想變性就變性，別國網軍想來帶風向，也不是那麼困難，因此網路民調也非常容易失準。

（四）早期民調誇大
另一個大變數是「早期民調」的準確度很低，因為選民還沒有足夠時間去瞭解候選人到底在幹嘛，但早期民調卻是媒體報導所仰賴的主要資訊來源，結果就是候選人拿來造勢、媒體見獵心喜誇大報導，進而影響到後續選民對候選人表示支持的聲量。例如看到拜登領先，那支持拜登的人講話就會比較大聲，因為他們是「主流」，反之支持川普的人，可能就會比較不敢表達意見，形成「沉默螺旋」。

「皮尤研究中心」也加碼解釋，事實上2016年的全國民調還算準確，（預測希贏3.3%最後贏2.1%），但美國總統大選是以選舉人票為單位，希拉蕊全國總票數高於川普也沒屁用，最後川普拿下所有的搖擺州，入主白宮。而選前的州民調也無法反映出搖擺州的真實民意，地方往往沒有全國性民調那種資源，四年前他們就忽略了在最後關頭，投給川普的搖擺選民數量，也沒有準確掌握未受過大學教育的白人選民，他們到底支持誰，種種因素導致了中西部上演「大驚奇」。還有就是民調公司往往有特定的政黨傾向，最後很可能導向「護主」的結果，讓民調不盡然客觀。

那這些問題2020年還會再重演嗎？老實說，有些變數還是很難避免，《紐約時報》就整理了，和四年前相比，哪些因素可能讓美國民調更精準或更失準。

更精準的第一點就是，搖擺選民減少了。

四年前民調失準的一大因素就是搖擺選民，但今年跟民調人員說：嗯～我還沒想好，的搖擺選民數量變少了，四年前的這個時候，大概還有20%的選民說他們還沒決定要投誰，或是打算投給小黨候選人，但今年這群人的數量只剩一半，而且其中支持川普的人也老早就表態，尤其是搖擺州的白人工人階級選民。

更精準的第二點是，選民教育程度的加權。
大家要有個概念，民調準不準確，完全取決於你抽樣有沒有做到「隨機」，也就是每個族群的意見都要被採納進來，但這真的非常難做到，最後很容易讓民調結果出現偏差。例如在美國，如果你跑去郊區教堂裡做民調，那幾乎可以篤定會獲得一個偏共和黨的結果；但如果你對大學生進行抽樣，最後很可能獲得一個偏民主黨的結果。另外的數據又顯示，受過高等教育的選民，比較願意接受民調訪問，每個都是選我選我～而那些較保守、教育程度較低的選民，他們的聲音就很難反映在民調上，所以如果你沒有按照「教育程度」來做加權，民調就會充斥太多年輕大學生的意見，導致結果偏向民主黨。先前民調機構都不怎麼重視教育程度對選情的影響，結果導致2016「爆冷門」。

有鑑於4年前的「教訓」，今年有越來越多民調機構，把選民教育程度的權重提高了，簡單來說就是把教育程度較高的受訪者音量降低一點，把教育程度較低的受訪者音量調高一點，讓他們各自符合在總人口中所佔的比例。今年從3月以來，美國各家民調機構做的幾十個調查中，已經有半數增加教育程度的權重，是先前的兩倍多（約20%）。

可能比2016年更糟糕的是，網路民調的增加。我們剛剛已經提過網路民調的準確度有待商榷，但過去幾個月來，越來越多機構採用網路民調的方式，比例佔地方民調總數的一半。他們採用的方法可能太過簡單，就是直接抓一群網路群組成員，然後再根據受訪者的人口統計資料進行分類加權，這樣的作法成本很低又很方便，但非常容易有樣本代表性不足的結果，而且最後民調可能左傾。 （最好的方式是結合電話民調和網路民調，例如AP/NORC/VoteCast的民調，電訪4萬人外加隨機抽樣11萬網友，結果可能較為客觀。

另一個可能不太客觀的做法是：請選民「回想投票」。
目前有越來越多投票機構採取這個方式，也就是要求受訪者回想2016年他把票投給誰，是希拉蕊還是川普呢？然後再依據他們的回答去做選舉意向的加權。這樣做可以讓民調數字看起來比較漂亮，也可以減少錯誤，但卻很難避免系統偏差，導致結果傾向某一政黨。再加上通常大家都會傾向回答，自己是投給獲勝的那一方，沒有人會想承認自己投給輸家嘛！再說這四年來誕生不少首投族，又有不少人往生，像是疫情導致那麼多人死亡，也有很多人搬到別的地方去，硬把2016年的投票意向套用到今年，恐怕不太合適。

所以這個民調到底是能不能看啊?你要是問我,我覺得就別看了 ,這是我們媒體想要預測選舉的結果, 或研究單位拿來做選民行為分析. 但一般選民還是把政策看清楚點比較要緊,你管別人怎麼投
今天琪斐大放送的關鍵字是：
#美民調失準
#選情霧茫茫

--------------------------------------
《#范琪斐的寰宇漫遊》每周四晚間8點55分在 #寰宇新聞台 播出，沒跟上的也沒關係，歡迎訂閱我們的 YouTube 頻道 🔔#范琪斐的寰宇漫遊 🔔https://reurl.cc/ZvKM3 1000pm準時上傳完整版！

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范琪斐

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《#斐姨所思》每週二晚間7點30分，在《#范琪斐的美國時間》臉書粉絲團、#范琪斐 YouTube官方頻道、Clubhouse同步直播。 資深媒體人范琪斐與夥伴們，邀大家一起上線聊聊天，關心國內外重要議題。喜歡我們的節目請別忘了訂閱按讚分享、開啟小鈴鐺喔！ 追蹤《#范琪斐的美國時間》掌握全球脈動 ?https://bit.ly/3vG5Nhg 范琪斐 YouTube 官方頻道 ?https://bit.ly/3f6WZvI
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