📰 STORY TIME!
Just wanted to share some happy (but tumultuous) news with everyone as well as the new knowledge I've gained from a recent transaction I've been working on, and hopefully increase our awareness of all the things that could go wrong. Yay! I'll give you the bad news first, then the good news.
My client had went under contract after weeks of searching and when you are looking for a home here in Houston, one of the first questions is "Has this house ever flooded before?" which a lot of homes unfortunately have (we live in a swamp and our roads are basically floodways). So this home had some previous water penetration and on the Seller's Disclosure, it was written that it was due to "drainage back flow during new construction" and that there was "previous flooding due to a natural flood event." Doing my due diligence, after the showing I called the listing agent to ask for further explanation on the flooding history, to which they confirmed that it was due to the construction of a Dept. of Public Safety across the street behind the home, and that due to drainage issues during construction, there was some ordeal with the pipes and such which caused the back flow to flood the backyard. I even further asked them to clarify whether or not it had to do with any natural flood events, since it was checked on the disclosure, to which they responded "no, it had nothing to do with natural flooding, it was just the new construction." 🙄
Now with all things considered, we decided to go under contract with a cash offer, short option period, and closing in 14 days. With such a short time frame, we immediately scheduled an inspection and sent in the option and earnest money. At inspections, the seller's were present and were very kind, friendly, honest folks, and we got to chatting. They openly and eagerly disclosed that the house had flooded TWICE, during Harvey (2017) and Imelda (2019). It did have to do with the DPS because it had never flooded prior, must've been all the concrete had caused the houses next to it to get the water runoff whenever it rains, however this means the likelihood of it flooding again is significantly higher, and it occurred during two flood events! This drastically affects the value and condition of the property! 😱
I let my buyer know of this shocking information, and he decides he wants to terminate, and although sad that he had spent $200 on the option period, $375 for the general inspection, he had a very positive attitude and took it as a learning experience.
I felt very upset by the fact that we wouldn't have gone under contract in the first place, had we known of the full picture of the flooding history, and now my client is $575 down the drain. We wouldn't have even known of the two flooding had the sellers not been present at inspections, and thank goodness they were. I went back to my manager, told her of this issue, and she contacted the broker on the listing side and requested that we were refunded the option money, as well as the inspection fee. And guess what?? We managed to get our option money back, as well as reimbursed for the inspections!!! 🎉🎉🎉 Woo hoo! Bless my sweet manager and we will of course send over the inspection report to the sellers so that they can have that to help sell their home to their next potential buyer.
I am very happy to say that I was able to protect my client's best interests, and although the transaction fell through, it is the little wins that keep us going towards the mountain top. 🏔️
inspection fee 在 Joe's investment Facebook 的最讚貼文
在證券市場上,大部分的投資人都是虧錢的,因為一般散戶投資人,他不會嚴謹的對某個商品,理性地分析該商品在當下環境的可能價格range,經常操作到最後會被市場情緒帶著走,然後走向虧損的結果
例如一檔股票,假設他的EPS是40,該市場或產業的平均本益比30~40倍,那股價落在1200~1600元,就是較合理的價格,如果它跌到200元,我可能就判斷它是低於市場應有價值,如果漲到3000元,我可能就判斷它是高於市場應有價值,投資者要有一個可靠錨點,再來進一步判定市場價值高估或低估
不過股市的短線波動很大,市場情緒影響也很大,去尋找可靠錨點困難度非常高,如果是房地產業,那就相對簡單,因為波動率比股市穩定很多,錨點比較不容易飄來飄去,如果讀者像我一樣從事美股和外匯交易非常多年,然後再去看房地產,絕對不難發現,房地產的錨點相對容易判定,房地產是一個非常Stable的金融商品,這個我在Blog已經提過了,不再論述
美國的房地產資訊非常透明,我試著用美國的房地產來舉例,Zillow就可以看到每個物件的房租落點,租金找出來,再去尋找該區域對應的殖利率,那麼那間房子的適合價位,立刻就出來了,剩下的就是去那間物件實地探訪,周遭生活機能、學區、左鄰右舍狀況、社區水準、HOA fee的高低、維護的情況、前任屋主的養屋習性、過去的租金水平,通通觀察後再綜合評估,然後心中就能對該房子有錨點,例如我可能在加州看完數百個物件,我可能得到一個心得,我想要月租3000美元的物件,然後達到我預設的條件,我要付出的就是70萬美元左右的費用,所有相關數據去評估,30年房貸利率3.4X%以下,殖利率可能抓個5%以上,淨利來個2.5%,透過數據綜合比對,70萬美元就是我設定的錨點,如果我是那個70萬美元物件的屋主,我要賣房子,我也是這樣去設定錨點,所有的價值評估都經過數據量化計算,不是靠情緒去判斷價格
而且錨點不是固定的,要隨市場機制而變,例如2020年1月,美國十年債殖利率1.7X%,現在美國十年債殖利率0.6X%,代表市場上去借美國國債或民間資本,然後進行房地產套利的自然人或法人會大幅增加,殖利率1.7X%,房租投報率可能要2.5%以上才安全,殖利率剩0.6X%,房租投報率可能要1.5%以上就安全了,月租3000美元,這時候一樣品質物件的錨點,立刻拉高到90萬美元,如果金融環境沒變,就會發現,市場上一樣品質的物件,如果低於90萬美元,那就會逐漸被掃光,市場上精明的法人和大戶很多,大家都有自己的預設錨點,但明顯低於市場應有價值的物件,一定是不約而同掃光
如果我是那個70萬美元物件的屋主,我要賣房子,有買家來跟我說,房價所得比太高,空屋率太高,持有稅多高,我基本上完全不會理他,買價的價格離我的錨點太遙遠,他就是來亂的,價格評估都是有其背後的量化規則,不是隨便亂開價
一樣的道理,如果我在市場上看到一個月租3000美元的物件,然後只要50萬美元,我會不會很開心,實務上來說不會,因為那個物件一定有其對應的缺點,它在市場機制中,它就是值50萬美元,輪的到我去買,那就代表,它沒有低估,我必須要進一步的地毯式觀察內部和周邊,才能判斷是真的撿到便宜,但通常不會有這種好康,如果遇到了,當然就是在inspection後可以決定要不要買
用美國舉例完了,回到台灣的環境,台灣目前房貸利率約1.5%左右,十年債殖利率約0.5%,假設環境不變,2%的殖利率是可以長期存在的水平,那是一個safe的報酬率,如果有人來跟我扯,房價所得比太高,空屋率太高,持有稅多高,然後用他的幻想價格來論述,我基本上也不想理他,因為市場機制下,那個錨點是不容易驟變的,只靠自己的情緒思考,而不是用真實存在的市場經濟數據去量化評估,那種討論價格是否合理都是沒意義的,真實世界中,不存在的錨點,都是不切實際的
inspection fee 在 泰國粉絲大本營 Thailandfans Forum Facebook 的精選貼文
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