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海运 操作实用英文9例. 1.原船在釜山由新船替代,怎么用英文通知客户?Pls kindly be noted, VSL AAA will be phased out at Pusan and phase in XXXX with ETD ...
... 相關分析雖顯示今年航運市場可望較去年度緩慢好轉,但由於新海運聯盟自去年下半年 ... 在轉口櫃、新航線、卸空換船(Phase-out)、藍色公路等項目均加碼提供獎勵金。
#3. National Taiwan Ocean University Institutional Repository:Item ...
貢獻者: 國立臺灣海洋大學:航運管理學系 ; 關鍵詞: 船舶導入暨導出;時間-運具網路;多元商品流量問題;分枝限界法. Phase-in and phase-out;Time-vehicle ...
#4. 船公司常常說的vessel phase in/out是什麼意思?(页1) - 物流论坛
請問船公司常常說的Vessel is phaseing out in Singapore. 這句話什麼意思?是指船正在慢慢離開新加坡港口嗎? 福步外贸论坛(FOB Business Forum) 福 ...
#5. 壹、 - 公務出國報告資訊網
2、反應在高雄港有港區拖車成本,且海運聯盟化之後情況會更明顯。 ... 三、 本公司推動的高雄港全船卸空(Phase out)碇泊費、曳船費全免,業者有興趣也相當認同,應可 ...
#6. 關務業務中英文詞彙對照表
Phase Out. 121 港口海關. Port Customs ... 179 海運快遞專區. Maritime Express Handling Units ... 33 私運貨物進/出口Smuggling of Goods into / out of.
根據其研究結論,針對提升船運規劃師作業績效,對海運公司做出建議,期望能因此 ... Control;PSC)之扣船、船舶導入(Phase In)時之延遲、港口潮汐、港口封閉、節省 ...
#8. 《產業》拚貨櫃量成長,台灣港務獎勵金加碼 - 奇摩股市
2018年2月26日 — ... 新海運聯盟於下半年開始影響台灣港埠,高雄港等港口今年是否能維持成長,充滿挑戰。郭添貴也宣布,將對轉口櫃、新航線、卸空換船(Phase-out)、 ...
#9. 拚貨櫃量成長台灣港務獎勵金加碼- 中時電子報(新聞發布)
... (新聞發布)台灣港務公司總經理郭添貴昨(26)日指出,去年新海運聯盟於 ... 郭添貴也宣布,將對轉口櫃、新航線、卸空換船(Phase-out)、藍色公路 ...
#10. port count - Chinese translation – Linguee
phase -out of HCFCs to count against the consumption [. ... 离海运、货物流量不平均、以及出口品单位价值较低等,以及如何使船只的大小、服务速度、港口装卸能力、 ...
#11. 官宣不再运煤!COP26削减煤炭成定局后,这家船东主动求变!
EPS的无煤炭货物政策还旨在向海运业传达一个信息,即脱碳并不局限于用什么样 ... 在大会的最后,关于削减煤炭能源的措辞由“逐步淘汰”(phase out)改 ...
#12. 期刊篇目查詢-詳情
557.438 · chi · 船舶導入暨導出; 時間-運具網路; 多元商品流量問題; 分枝限界法; Phase-in and phase-out; Time-vehicle network; Multi-commodity flows problem; Branch- ...
#13. 海運出口貨物電腦放行通知 - 財政部關務署
海運 出口貨物電腦放行通知. (簡5204S) ... Customs RFID Seals In The Declaration Phase ... transported out of the controlled area shall be.
#14. 鼓勵航商貨量成長港務公司推出107年度獎勵方案 - 工商時報
... 雖顯示今年航運市場可望較去年度緩慢好轉,但由於新海運聯盟自去年下 ... 櫃、新航線、卸空換船(Phase-out)、藍色公路等項目均加碼提供獎勵金。
#15. TEORRA | LinkedIn
Global coffee powerhouse Starbucks is making big environmental moves: the company has announced plans to phase out its disposable cups by 2025: ...
#16. 趙家緯/格拉斯哥氣候峰會紀事:COP26對台灣帶來什麼啟示?
... 以反對整個大會協議的要脅之下,施壓將「加速努力以淘汰(phase-out) ... 鋼鐵、水泥、石化、貨運、海運、航空等六大部門,因減碳成本高、技術 ...
#17. 路透基点: 台湾慧洋海运集团寻求三年期1亿美元再融资贷款
此次贷款利率为较伦敦银行间拆放款利率(Libor)加码230个基点。如果Libor与台北金融业美元拆借利率(TAIFX)之差超过35个基点,借款方将支付超出部分的利率。
#18. Initial IMO GHG Strategy - International Maritime Organization
IMO remains committed to reducing GHG emissions from international shipping and, as a matter of urgency, aims to phase them out as soon as possible in this ...
#19. 亞洲銀行業首家玉山金承諾2035年全面「撤煤」 | 金融脈動
為實踐COP26減碳目標,玉山金控(2884)今宣布,將於2035年全面撤資(Phase-out)煤炭相關產業,為亞洲首...
#20. 加拿大海运-深圳市鹏成运通国际物流有限公司 - 集运出口运输
Address: building A2, phase II, Fuqiao Third District, Fuhai street, Bao'an District, Shenzhen. Company news ... 鹏成运通|加拿大海运渠道上线.
#21. RTC-900R - 强固型平板电脑 - AAEON
Phase -out Reason(s): Key Part Phase out and Marketing less requirement. Last Buy Date: Dec. 14, 2017 ... 工业; 海运业; 政府; 商务自动化; 公用事业; 后勤 ...
#22. 不再运煤!干散货船东东EPS实行“无煤炭货物”政策 - 国际海运网
EPS的无煤炭货物政策还旨在向海运业传达一个信息即脱碳并不局限于用什么样船舶的 ... 在大会的最后关于削减煤炭能源的措辞由“逐步淘汰”(phase out)改 ...
#23. IMO海运减排战略下航运企业面临的挑战及应对建议
IMO温室气体减排初步战略提出争取使国际海运温室气体排放尽快达到峰值,并在本世纪尽快逐步消除(Phase Out)海运温室气体排放。可以预见,随着相关措施的 ...
#24. How to get to 海運觀點in Hong Kong by Subway, Bus or Ferry?
Moovit provides free maps and live directions to help you navigate through your city. View schedules, routes, timetables, and find out how long ...
#25. paints containing lead-翻译为中文-例句英语
Its broad objective is to phase out the manufacture and sale of paints containing lead and eventually to eliminate the risks posed by such paints. 其广义的目标 ...
#26. Shipping industry sets out bold plan to global regulator to ...
So, our net zero offering sets out the 'how' as well as the 'what' for ... of phasing-out CO2 emissions from large oceangoing ships.
#27. CARM 門戶網站網絡研討會 - UPS
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) is preparing to roll out the second phase of its CARM (CBSA Assessment & Revenue Management) Client Portal (CCP).
#28. Search results - GARD
From the 2019 renewal, we will begin to phase out the distribution of paper ... 成蟲常在船舶和海運集裝箱上產下卵塊,由於這些卵群通常會存活下來並在世界各地的 ...
#29. 3rp1527-1ec30 Timing Relay Electronic Phase-out - Alibaba ...
3rp1527-1ec30 Timing Relay Electronic Phase-out , Find Complete Details about 3rp1527-1ec30 Timing ... 运输:: 支持 快递 · 海运运费 · 陆运运费 · 空运运费.
#30. 中部地區貨櫃車運輸業如何用資訊科技管理的方式建構長期競爭 ...
... smaller either choose to phase out or is still striving to get survived. ... 王誠煦(2008),探討企業員工即時通訊軟體採用意願之關鍵影響因素-以海運承攬業為 ...
#31. Soong wants to phase out `go slow, be patient' - Taipei Times
Independent presidential candidate James Soong ( 宋楚瑜 ) yesterday urged the government to phase out its current \"go slow, be patient\" policy ( 戒急用忍 ) ...
#32. 削减煤炭成定局,运煤船航运公司和资方开始撤退 - 国际船舶网
来源:海运圈聚焦 编辑: 国际船舶网 我有话要说 ... 代表提出把有关削减煤炭能源的措辞由“逐步淘汰”(phase out)改为“逐步减少”(phase down)。
#33. 244-2021: Upcoming extension of sea container measures ...
244-2021: Upcoming extension of sea container measures (Phase 6A) to protect against khapra beetle · Who does this notice affect? · What has ...
#34. attenuator switch是什麼意思、英文翻譯及中文解釋 - 三毛英語季
... 詞語:attenuatorswitch解釋:衰減器開關詞典:海運專業英漢詞典. ... the baby out with the bathwater; 05-28alternating current three phase four wire system ...
#35. IMO海運GHG減排戰略六大易誤讀內容- 壹讀
正解:逐步停止(PHASE OUT)溫室氣體排放。 4. 船舶碳強度下降 減排力度或目標(LEVELS OF AMBITION)之一. 誤讀指數:⭐️. 誤讀:提高下一階段船舶設計能效要求。
#36. 航海及海运专业词汇A - 福建船政交通职业学院
abandonee 被遗弃者打捞货物的接受人(海运保险中 ... AC single phase three wire insulated system 交流单机三线绝缘系统 ... amount of cable out 抛出锚链长度.
#37. 中遠海運控股股份有限公司 COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co ...
In order to phase out obsolete and worn-out transportation vessels with high energy consumption, pollution and safety risks, promote energy ...
#38. 一路通有限公司OnePort Limited
匯入貨物:在我的貨物下,匯入你所須的海運提單/貨櫃(*請於收到船公司發出的 ... OnePort Ltd, 9/F, Warehouse Bldg Phase I, Berth One, Kwai Chung, ...
#39. 財團法人中國驗船中心CR CLASSIFICATION SOCIETY
(八), MMC-376:Phase out and Prohibition on Installation of Equipment Containing ODS, ... (六), MSC.442(99)決議案:修正國際海運危險品章程.
#40. 與「Manager, Logistics Asia」相似的工作 - 104人力銀行
Carry out risk assessment / re-assessment (LSP) and analysis regularly based on the complaints, ... 德翔海運股份有限公司海運 ... Phase out check 3.
#41. Policy mixes for just sustainable development in regions ...
... and/or phase-out of incumbent carbon-intensive industries. ... 从事碳密集型产业的地区的可持续发展政策组合:以挪威两个石油海运地区为例.
#42. 削減煤炭成定局,大型散貨船資方開始撤退,船東怎麼辦?|船順
就在13日快要達成協議的最後關頭,印度代表提出把有關削減煤炭能源的措辭由「逐步淘汰」(phase out)改為「逐步減少」(phase down)。
#43. Conference-Handbook.pdf - DEHUKAM
財團法人中國驗船中心、陽明海運股份有限公司、富邦產物保險股份 ... In order to fulfil the overriding aim to phase out greenhouse gases (GHG) ...
#44. 國庫業務中英文詞彙對照表
14 海運業務. Marine Transport Business ... The First-in, First-out Method. 76 加權平均法 ... 118 易腐品. Perishable Goods. 119 逐漸取消. Phase Out ...
#45. At Playacar Phase 2 (公寓)(墨西哥普拉亞德爾卡曼)優惠
Villa Mayamar - 3 Bedroom villa 提供烤肉設備和露台。 這間住宿距離普拉亞卡門海運碼頭(Playa del Carmen Maritime Terminal) 2 公里,距離ADO 國際巴士站3.3 公里 ...
#46. CHINA INTERNATIONAL MARINE CONTAINERS (GROUP ...
(中國國際海運集裝箱(集團)股份有限公司), a joint stock ... the phase-out project with Environmental Protection Ministry of Foreign.
#47. Three SOEs Signed Time Charter and Shipbuilding Contracts ...
The 'cloud signing' ceremony of phase II thre...。 ... In his speech, Zhu qiangmeng pointed out that in the face of the complex situation of ...
#48. Nuclear power stations maintain a risk | Arthur D. Little
The ideological battles for the future of nuclear power are over. The nuclear power phase-out has already been decided. Critics worry about the provisions ...
#49. 國立交通大學機構典藏:越太平洋航線貨櫃運量之影響因素探討
... well as dig out carriers' competitive advantage and the reasons caused difference. ... Do not blindly pursue mega-vessel phase in and high market share.
#50. [情報] 2023年及其之後:海運市場的展望- 看板Stock
標題:2023年及其之後:運力、運費,以及海運市場的展望2. ... pandemic-induced bottlenecks in the system will eventually work themselves out.
#51. 美華軍語辭典 - 國防部
aircraft out of commission for part 停飛待料飛機 aircraft patrol 飛機巡邏 ... alert phase 警戒階段 ... Army ocean manifest recapitulation 陸軍海運艙單摘要.
#52. 裕民航運召開2019年股東常會
... 裕民(廈門)海運有限公司」等兩家公司,加速開拓中國沿海及進出口散裝航運業務。 ... competitive and they are expected to be phased out sooner than expected.
#53. 英文翻譯及中文解釋 - 英語點津幫
alternating current three phase three wire system with earthed hull as neutral ... 解釋:利用船體作為中性線迴路的交流三相三線系統詞典:海運專.
#54. Review of Maritime Transport 2021 - UNCTAD
implementation of the Phase One trade agreement boosted some ... to phase out 5.8 million barrels per day of production cuts (OPEC, 2021).
#55. 请重点关注!COP26会后,干散货航运市场将面临哪些影响?
协议中的“逐步淘汰”(phase out)因印度坚决反对,最后改成“逐步减少”(phase down) ... 需求决定供给,煤炭的海运运输量也将同步下降。
#56. 台北市|新北市|EDI工作職缺/工作機會-2022年3月
... 報關電腦傳輸人員、【總公司】程式設計師、【台北】海運部助理OP、PHP網站工程師等 ... life cycle (new products, end of life, and phase-in / phase-out) 6.
#57. AC three phase four wire system with neutral earthed是什麼意思
AC three phase four wire system with neutral earthed是什麼意思、英文翻譯及中文解釋 ... 解釋:中性點接地的交流三相四線系統詞典:海運專業英漢詞典.
#58. 優惠推薦- 2022年4月| 蝦皮購物台灣
你想找的網路人氣推薦When will bitcoin halving phase out miners【Input∶962883.com】Honorable Mention ... 儲值服務倉儲配送服務運費充值服務打包台灣服務海運.
#59. 译问
... 林化学化工高分子化学核电水利流变学地球物理生态细菌学电信电力电工电子电力电子电气科技空运计算机SAP思科图灵机通信矿业煤炭会计音频食品能源航空船舶海运航海.
#60. 海運名詞 - 旭達國際通運有限公司
FREE OUT 船東艙底交貨條款. FOB. FREE ON BOARD 離岸價格. FOR. FREE ON RAIL 工廠價. FORWARDER. FORWARDER 海運承攬運送業. FOUL B/L.
#61. 缅甸深水港选址与波浪特征数值模拟- 博士
因此,本研究的主要目的之一是建立除东盟和缅甸境内的边境贸易之外的海运和物流的综合蓝图。 ... prediction is practically only possible in a phase-averaged sense.
#62. KTX2サービス:本船入れ替えのご案内( OOCL JAKARTA ...
M/V:OOCL JAKARTA VOY:053N は南沙出港後、高雄に追加寄港しPhase Outとなります. OOCL JAKARTAの代替船としてOOCL SVANNAHが高雄からPhase Inとなり ...
#63. Live animal exports: NZ Government confirms ban from 2023
World Animal Protection NZ executive director Simone Clarke thanked the Government for agreeing to phase out the "abhorrent" live export trade ...
#64. 航运术语表 - 术语解释 | 马士基 - Maersk
Such charges are usually for agents' forwarding fees and incidental expenses paid out of pocket for account of the shipment by an agent or other carrier.
#65. UK Hydrogen Export Capability Guide 英國氫能出口指南 - GOV.UK
combustion engine phase out, all create commercial opportunities ... 提供數百萬英鎊支援運輸業脫碳,包括氫能巴士、重型貨車(HGV)、海運、空運、和多式聯運運輸.
#66. 2014 月第6期刊总第124期 - 盐田港集团
的人及扭有船前或经营船舶的人提供良好服务,促进了海运. 经贸发展。于是上經調之的起源地之一, ... companics may be squeezed out of the top three main routes. But.
#67. China's freight forwarding and logistics (hktdc.com)
Its accession to the WTO is widely expected to boost China兼s trading activities with other countries. There will also be a gradual phase-out of restrictions on ...
#68. 中國擺脫對煤炭的依賴並非僅是經濟問題
而且,大部分天然氣將需要通過中亞等不穩定地區的管道,或通過公海運入,而目前中國與其主要地緣政治對手和世界上最重要海軍強國的關係正迅速惡化。
#69. 12th JECKU OSAKA 2003 Chairman's Note
... on the other hand there is an urge to advance the phase-out schedule of single-hull tankers, triggered by accidents involving oil spills from tankers.
#70. 航海及海运专业英语词汇(B1) - 食品伙伴网
航海及海运专业英语词汇(B1) ... 扣back order 待交订货单back order 待交订货单暂时无法满足的订货back oscillation 回波振荡back out 扭出back over ...
#71. Global Product Manager | Xylem China
Oversees & manages the phase out and phase in of new product lines, including Spares management. Provide input to strategic planning cycle for products.
#72. Marine-i, Cornwall
Marine-i enters a new phase. Discover Marine-i, a pioneering project designed to help ... Events Find out about our industry leading events Count me in.
#73. 英文測驗題庫彙編05~110-new年(解答顯示檔)
The last thing you want on a vacation is to find out[ ]fees that you must ... Importantly, they are able to do this at the decision-making phase of the ...
#74. Global container shipping with a personal touch | Hamburg Süd
Due to the phase out of the “Cardiff” , the “Aegiali” 20 S will be slightly ... 通过连接拥有良好配套设施及便利通关服务的宁波港,引入了铁路和海运的联运服务。
#75. Opening up the Chinese shipping market 1988–2018
In terms of Chinese shipping policy, not only did China phase out cargo ... Bank of China helped cosco shipping acquired OOCL [中国银行助力中远海运集团要约 ...
#76. 深圳国际控股有限公司
Topping-out ceremony of He Feng Xuan(和風軒), the first phase of the ... 開展煙台-大連航綫甩掛接駁項目;以及開發覆蓋深圳港的海運無紙化項目以及拓展廣州 ...
#77. State variable decoupling and power flow control in PWM ...
... of the PWM-CSR model, their control has usually been carried out using direct line current control in a three-phase stationary frame (abc).
#78. 元捷國際物流股份有限公司Oriental Vanguard Logistics-客戶服務
海運, 水工模型試驗, Hydraulic model test. 海運, 免責, Immunity. 海運, 進口艙單, Import Manifest, 文件. 海運, 進/出港(主)航道, Inbound/Outbound (Main ...
#79. hmm promise vessel. - The right logistics solution for each ...
Check out Listly's Action Script service. ... 如今,现代商船(hmm)已成长为世界上最大的多式联运海运公司,船队包括散货船(bulk carrier)、矿砂船(ore carrier)、 ...
#80. flexport disruptor. Flexport is the modern cloud platform ...
Here are the disruptive retail businesses to watch out for: 1. ... the company was still in its startup phase. davidknezevic 9:15:44 pm on October 1st 2021.
#81. Notice - YangMing Marine Transport Corp.
陽明海運股份有限公司全球員工秉持”團隊、創新、誠信、務實”之價值理念, ... To find out more about the cookies we use, see our Privacy and Security Statement.
phase out海運 在 [情報] 2023年及其之後:海運市場的展望- 看板Stock 的推薦與評價
1. 標題:2023年及其之後:運力、運費,以及海運市場的展望
2. 來源:MoreThanShipping
3. 網址:https://reurl.cc/zMjoQk
4. 內文:
今天在網上閒逛,
看到海事諮詢公司SeaIntelligence執行長Lars Jensen
2月份一篇預測2023年後海運市場的文章,
覺得很有意思,隨手譯出分享給股板鄉民。
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2023 and Beyond:
What to Expect for Shipping, Rates, and Deliverability
2023年及其之後:運力、運費,以及海運市場的展望
The current disruption in the supply chain obviously has everyone’s
attention. However, the current situation is not permanent, and the
pandemic-induced bottlenecks in the system will eventually work themselves
out. Hence, it is prudent to contemplate the nature of the market in 2023 and
beyond already now, especially since some shippers are already negotiating
freight contracts stretching for both two and three years.
近來,明眼人都注意到全球供應鏈面臨的困境。然而,因疫情導致的供應鏈瓶頸並不會永
久存續而終將被解決。因此,那些眼光長遠的人此時將開始思索:2023年以及之後的海
運市場,將會是什麼光景?有些發貨業者甚至已開始簽訂兩至三年的海運長約。
Basically, there are elements in the market right now which are temporary,
and there are elements which will lead to permanent changes. Let us start by
contemplating the more temporary elements.
市場上的變數大致可分為暫時性的,
和那些導致深遠後果的因子。
我們不妨先探討那些暫時性的因素。
First of all, there is the issue of the bottleneck problems globally.
Bottlenecks have been caused by a variety of factors such as major surges in
demand, ports closures, blockage of the Suez Canal, shortages of truck and
chassis, shortage of labor due to Covid-19, etc. Whilst these problems loom
large presently they will eventually be resolved. Global demand in 2021 was
only 5-6% higher than in 2019. This means that the amount of ships and
containers in the world is not a major problem. The major problem is the port
and hinterland congestion tying up these assets for far too long. As the
inland logistics problems gradually get resolved, the operations will come
back to normal.
第一、造成全球供應鏈瓶頸的因素大致可歸納如下:
貨運需求驟升、港口壅塞、蘇伊士運河阻塞、卡車及車架短缺、港口工人染疫…等等。
但這些短期負面因子終將消弭。
在2021年,全球貨運需求僅比2019年高出5至6%,
這表示貨櫃船的數量並非不足。
瓶頸主要來源還是來自塞港以及腹地貨運不暢。
當物流問題解決,運輸營運自然可回歸正常。
Looking at the largest congestion for which there is solid data, namely the
labor disputes causing massive queues off the U.S. West Coast in 2015, it is
found that it will take at least 8-9 months before the supply chain can be
fully back to normality. And, given the high likelihood of additional
curveballs in 2022, it is more realistic to assume full normality is not
restored until we are into 2023.
回顧西岸港口在2015年的勞資糾紛,
大量數據表明,要讓供應鏈復原,起碼需時8至9個月。
若再加上2022年可能發生的「天有不測風雲」事件,
合理預估海運市場能回歸正常的時間,
大概落在2023年。
But this also means that shippers need to plan from the perspective that 2022
is all about contingency planning just as we saw in 2021 – but from 2023 it
should increasingly be about gradually bringing their supply chains back into
a normal shape.
這也意謂著,託運人可以把2022年的海運市場當做2021年看待。
而2023年開始,供應鏈就會逐漸回歸「正常」。
But this brings us to the second part, because what does “normal” mean in
this context?
但問題來了,所謂的「正常」是什麼意思?
From an operational perspective shippers should expect schedule reliability
to revert back to pre-pandemic levels when it comes to vessels arriving on
time. However, there are two other operational elements which must be
carefully noted.
對託運人來說,這代表貨櫃準班率能回到疫情前的水準。
但還有兩個因素必須留意。
One element is the prospect of sailing vessels slower.
第一、船舶行駛速度調降
Bunker fuel prices for low-sulphur fuel is setting new records these days and
match the peaks seen for old heavy fuel in 2012. Back then, carriers slowed
vessels down to alleviate the high fuel costs and this might well happen in
2023 as the bottlenecks are removed. Furthermore, 2023 sees the introduction
of new environmental legislation under IMO2023 rules. This forces shipping
lines to improve fuel efficiency of the individual vessels and can likely
also lead to more slow-steaming. Shippers might therefore experience that
reliability becomes normal, but transit times might be slightly longer than
the pre-pandemic normality.
近來,低硫燃料油的價格不斷創高。
如同2012年重燃料油價格的飆漲,
當時船舶為了應對高額燃料費,不得不降速行駛。
而相同情形也會在2023年重演,
即使那時供應鏈瓶頸已疏緩。
而國際海事組織在2023年的環保規範
亦將迫使船舶降低航速以提升燃油使用效率。
託運人將會發現,
準班率可能回歸正常,但貨運航程將較疫情前費時更久。
The other element relates to blank sailings.
第二:空白航班
Right now, all blank sailings in the market are basically because the
carriers do not have the necessary vessels to deliver on their planned
schedules. In itself, this is caused by the bottlenecks. When the bottlenecks
are removed, blank sailings once more become a yield management tool for the
carriers. They were already beginning to do this to larger extent in 2018-19
and we saw how they used it with great effect in the spring of 2020 where
they managed to keep rates stable in the early phase of the pandemic where
demand suddenly dropped sharply. Shippers should therefore expect blank
sailings to be a normal part of the market in 2023.
現在全球的空白航班基本上都歸因於港口壅塞。
當供應鏈瓶頸疏緩,空白航班將成為航商調整效率的工具。
可以注意到,航商在疫情前期的2018-2019年,需求大幅減少的時期,
已經使用空白航班維持運價穩定。
託運人會發現,2023年後空白航班將會是海運市場的新常態。
And this leads us, finally, to the freight rates.
最後,我們探討運價將如何變化。
The current spot rates are dominated by the physical shortage of capacity due
to the bottlenecks. As this becomes better spot rates will start dropping,
but even in a “free fall” scenario a reversal to more normal levels will
likely take more than a year. And, what is the post-pandemic normality for
rates?
現在供應鏈的瓶頸,造就高昂的運價。
但就算運價開始下滑,回歸到「正常」水平,
需時也將超過一年。況且,在後疫情時期,
「正常的運價」應該是什麼水準?
Carriers have clearly learned over the past two years that many shippers,
especially on the consumer-heavy head haul trades, are fully capable of
paying thousands of dollars more than before 2020. Major cargo owners such as
Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc. are all showing very good business results
for 2021 despite the supply chain problems. This shows quite clearly that a
substantial part of the market is capable of paying rates in line with late
2020/early 2021 and still have a fully viable business model. These larger
customers account for a larger proportion of the carriers’ capacity and
hence the carriers have little incentive to drop the rates below those levels.
過去2年,航商們都發現,像是沃爾瑪(Walmart)、家得寶(Home Depot)、
目標百貨(Target)等等大型客戶,完全有能力支付高昂的運費
同時有著亮眼的營收。
這表示,貨櫃託運的買方完全有能力
在維持營運模式不變的前提下,負擔現今的高運費。
加上,這些公司都是航運業者的主力客戶,
因此,航商完全沒有動機對運費做出調降。
At this point it must then be noted that the pandemic period, and especially
the past 12 months, has seen a rapid growth in the amount of new services
offered either by smaller existing carriers starting services in major
deep-sea trades or by entirely new carriers launched to offer services in
this highly challenging market. On top of that, we see some sailings being
offered by freight forwarders chartering own vessels or even cargo owners
chartering vessels.
值得注意的是,過去一年,許多現存的或新加入海運市場的
小型航商開始提供貨櫃託運服務。
尤有甚者,貨運承攬業和貨櫃商也來分食這塊大餅。
It could therefore be thought that this injection of new carriers – and
their capacity – would increase competition going forward and as a
consequence eventually force rates downwards. However, it is much more likely
that these are all temporary developments and they will disappear when the
market normalizes.
運力的注入導致更多競爭,而無可避免的將導致運價下跌。
但在市場回歸「正常」後,這些新玩家很可能也將隨之消失。
It is not difficult to start a profitable service in a market where freight
rates are in the $10-20,000 USD/FFE range. But when rates start to come down,
these newcomers will become squeezed on cost. Their vessels are often much
smaller and hence have higher unit costs and many have been chartered in 2021
where the charter rates have been in the range of 5-10 times more expensive
than before the pandemic. There have even been deals where vessels which went
for 10-15,000 USD/day before the pandemic has now been chartered at
100,000-250,000 USD/day.
在運費報價2萬美金的時候,要賺錢當然很容易。
但是當運價開始下滑,特別是當集貨船日租金達到
一天10萬至25萬美金的時候,將大大侵蝕這些新航商的獲利空間,
他們的船隻相對較小,單位營運成本當然也較高。
Therefore, when the market starts to come back to normal it is very likely
that rates will drop to a point where many of these newcomers are no longer
profitable and will have to leave the market again. Remember that we also saw
a range of newcomers surge into the market in 2010 as we had a very tight
market in the rebound after the financial crisis, but these services all went
away again when the bull run was over.
因此,當市場漸漸回歸正軌,
運費終將達到這些新手無法負荷營運的水位,
而必須退出市場。
就像在2010年,當海運牛市結束後,新手航商只能黯然離開。
Hence, all in all, shippers should start preparing for the outlook that 2023
and beyond may well see operational performance restored, albeit with longer
transit times and more blank sailings, but they also need to plan in such a
way that their business models are robust in an environment where rates are
permanently at levels seen in late 2020 or early 2021 – and those levels
were substantially higher than in 2019.
這就表示,貨櫃市場的買方將發現,
在2023年及其之後,貨運船期將拉長,空白航班也會增多。
而這些需要貨櫃運輸的公司
最好開始調整公司的體質以適應高昂的運費。
因為往後的運價,
將很可能被永久定錨在2020-2021年之間的水平了。
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