#立會去留 #RTHKLettertoHK
Participating in the upcoming extended term of the legislative council is, I feel, the lesser of two evils. Of course the one-year postponement of the election which should have been held this month was an anti-democratic trick by the government to avoid facing the voters. The extended term surely lacks legitimacy in the public eye.
But with liberal and democratic institutions being constantly undermined by an executive seeking to bring the other arms of government under its control, we must take every opportunity to voice our concerns, use every forum to fight back in the interests of Hong Kong’s governance, and the promises enshrined in the Basic Law.
Of course previously I’ve had my reservations about staying on, as it would mean accepting a quasi Beijing appointment in an un-elected legislature, ie without the people’s mandate. I’ve had my moments of a psychic tug-of-war.
It’s also understood that many of our young view some of the veterans in the democratic camp as washouts, that they belong to an earlier civilisation and should have been “outed” anyway. Some online criticism would go as far as, and I quote, “Can’t let go of the pay and the glory associated with a Legco seat, can you? Like you are being thrown a bone, a bone only but you can’t wait to go get it”, unquote.
Amongst the democrats I’m probably, probably, the one with the least
political baggage: The fact that I do not have a political party background; that I’m not young and as a result I wouldn’t need to worry too much about career development or prospects. And so perhaps I am more able to consider the “stay or quit” question with an even more free mind.
What’s happened is the number of pro-democracy legislators has already been thinned by legal manoeuvres to oust elected members. But we can perhaps muster just enough votes to deny the pro-government camp absolute control over the council.
Unrepresentative though it is, the council often is not just a talking shop and rubber stamp. It does have some ability to query officials, demand information and make constructive criticism of government proposals and policies. Even when the criticism is not particularly constructive, or some would even call it destructive, it could at least help vent public anger and frustration.
We need opposition voice to at least better health policy, labour rights, pollution, education and public transport problems.
Between now and next September we should be able to show Hongkongers that we can be of value in fighting for their interests. Although the system remains heavily weighted against us, the legislature remains a place where we can stand up, on the spot, against the arrogance and incompetence of the administration.
We don’t just make noise, we carry on to serve as the voice of the people. We shouldn’t become outsiders looking in. We need feet on the ground.
Sure we could be running into a storm without even an umbrella. Things could get painful. It’s so much easier to quit. But to quit would just be taking a placebo line. We cannot pretend the pain is not there, we just need to deal with it, fight it.
The lawmaker capacity does carry a degree of power. Once I called the agriculture and fisheries department, demanding to speak to the department head, saying it’s a matter of utter emergency. What was happening that day was a government wild pig hunting team armed with Remington's was scheduled to go to a village, provoking an unnecessary but possible violent standoff between villagers and animal rights campaigners.
My little intervention was successful. The AFCD head heeded and cancelled the hunting mission that day. And thanks to joint efforts on the civil society and Legco fronts such wild boar hunting squads have now been scrapped altogether.
Another episode that has been lodged in my head involved what happened on August 31 last year. Speculation was rife that there were fatalities inside the Prince Edward MTR station that evening, at the peak of our protest movement. I made a number of official enquiries and subsequently managed to have a face-to-face meet-up with the fire services chief.
Although in the end neither the police nor the fire department could satisfactorily explain the discrepancies in the number of injured and the state of injuries, at the time it was the only way to prompt —- if not force —- the civil servants involved to do their explaining in public, to the media.
It’s experiences of the kind that help to solidify my opinion that democrats should remain on the inside. Because of what we do, a lot of incompetence and hypocrisy, sometimes even some crookedness get exposed.
Beijing loyalists and the pro-government type would keep on politely tip-toeing around issues so as not to offend the authorities, they would keep on spinning mistruths, the democrats can counter that performance.
At a time when Hong Kong is politically, financially going down the tubes, with our young in particular feeling helpless, at a time when hope seems to be dismissed and punishment dealt, when discontent could morph into pure hate and antipathy to the government, democrats should help by not abandoning any battleline.
Anyone who wants to query government policies, draw attention to abuses, obtain information now faces increasing difficulties.
Assembly is restricted. People have to guard their words. Much mainstream media simply reflect official policies and journalists now have to be approved by the police to be treated as such. However inadequate it may be, the legislative council remains a forum for questions and comment, and is widely reported.
And popularly elected legislators in particular have standing which cannot be ignored at home, and they are also focus of foreign inquiry about Hong Kong issues. Journalistic institutions magnify the impact of such individuals who would otherwise find themselves crying in the wilderness, lone voices without a platform. Legco is a platform, however shaky.
If results of an opinion poll —-expected by Tuesday —-commissioned by the Democratic Party tell us to go —- easy, we’ll just pack up.
But Im hoping for the opposite. I for one would want to keep staying on the Legco frontline, standing up for what I believe. Nothing egotistical about it. We will simply take what's left and fight it out.
I’m prepared to take the lesser evil.
XXX
https://www.rthk.hk/radio/radio3/programme/lettertohongkong
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[WHERE TO PUT YOUR MONEY AFTER MALAYSIA AIRLINES MH370 DISASTER : ONCE IN LIFETIME OPPORTUNITIES BY DR NAZRI KHAN]
I say it again. Malaysia Airlines (BURSA : 3786) is a super excellent buy for long term investors. A perfect buy for three year holding period. Note that MAS is now trading at super cheap Price Book of 0.8 and exactly one fifth of its original par value of RM1.00. Its financials now stand with Debt RM11bil, Cash RM4bil and 2013 losses RM1.2bil.
My personal view, regardless of all MH370 Grand Theory (mostly illogical) being bandied around from (1) poor weather (2) pilot error (3) engine failure (4) Xinjiang Separatist aka Chinese 9/11 (5) pilot commit suicide (6) Asian Bermuda Triangle (7) Airasia Ops Telanjang Attacks (8) Anwar Ibrahim Court Diversion, MAS will definitely suffer loss of confidence in the short term which open up a huge buying opportunities for long term investors.
As we know MAS is facing its most severe turbulences that threatens its very survival. Hence, I personally speculate two things may happen to MAS now. Privatisation or Bankruptcy Protection.
While I believe the latter is extremely & highly unlikely (given MAS strong intangible asset), both scenario may reinvent stronger MAS over three years time frame. If there is any case, Japanese Airlines is a good example which rose miraculously from 5 Japanese cents (a day before delisted from Tokyo Stock Exchange in January 2010) to as high as Japanese Yen 3,790 immediately on relisting day in September 2012 (an absolute gain of 75,800% after three years of painful restructuring ie. cutting a third of its workforce, cancelling unprofitable routes and replacing older planes).
Three major reasons why I believe MAS is a fail-proof-long-term-investment (1) Government will not let MAS go under due to its massive strategic role to Malaysian economy (2) MAS has lasting intangible asset namely Best Airline Brand, Best Cabin Crew & Safest Airline Track Record (3) MAS has numerous business sharks ready to pounce on cheap privatisation.
The Most Likely Scenario : Privatisation, White Knight & New Leadership :
With MAS price now standing at dirt cheap of RM0.23, privatisation attempt may be highly viable as the total acquisition cost is a cheap RM4bil (MAS Total Market Cap as at Monday 10th March is RM4.1bil, the lowest in its 50 years business history). Judging from the highest volume transaction spotted yesterday, I expect more bidding sharks to quietly accumulate for control after the last Airasia-led privatisation attempt was aborted in May 2012. Exactly what we see yesterday, MAS fell the most since June 2013 (11% plunge) but made a strong turnaround to 24 sen with volume at 39.96 million shares, the highest single day transaction ever in one year. If this scenario materializes, expect MAS share price to range bound (say RM0.15 to RM0.30) with mysteriously active trade sparked by insider accumulation.
The Unlikely Worst Case Scenario : Bankruptcy Protection
Should operation continue to bleed, MAS may have no choice but to trigger a drastic bankruptcy protocols to break out from the financial doldrums and close it under creditor protection. This is highly unlikely but is still MAS last option to deal with its legacy hurdles namely the demanding union politics, overstaffing and lopsided procurement contracts (from engineering, maintenance to catering). Filing for bankruptcy under Section 176 of the Malaysian Companies Act will give MAS a fresh start and emergency room to resuscitate its operation and do what is necessary to face the cut throat competition (which include selling business units and shed staff as Japanese Airlines did). This scenario however is remote in probabilities given that MAS has strong intangible assets and MAS shareholder, national asset manager Khazanah Nasional has consistently ruled out winding down the airline. If this scenario materialize, expect a Flash Crash on MAS share price with RM0.10 as the most likely downside target for aggressive buy.
As for strategy, expect the following stocks to be the biggest losers from MH370 disaster :
(1) Airport Operator : Malaysia Airports (Bursa : 5014) : SELL
If security concerns are to be blamed, we should expect Malaysia Airports to impose more measures at higher cost. Don’t forget the repercussion may also create flight delay & cancellation, adding to the bottom line of Malaysia Airports.
(2) Tourism Player : Genting Malaysia & Shangrila (Bursa : 4715 & 5517) : SELL
Tourism may plummet in the short term, causing marginal loss with Genting as the most vulnerable targets. Following this, we should expect hotel occupancy to fall as well due to psychological distress and shorter tourist tenure immediately after the event.
(3) MAS Partner : China Southern Airlines (HKEX : 1055) : SELL
MAS operational code-share partner will get the immediate negative impacts from the repercussion as reflected by China Southern Airlines which fell 3.85% on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
(4) Insurance : Willis Group Holding (NYSE : WSH) : SELL
Willis was the broker for Malaysia Airlines liability insurance cover. The size of the potential claims for workers/clients compensation following the disappearance of a Malaysia Airlines jetliner can be in the tens to hundreds of millions depending on the results of the investigation.
The following companies may set to be the biggest winners :
(1) MAS Competitor : Airasia (Bursa : 5099) : STRONG BUY
The missing of MH370 will trigger short term loss of confidence for MAS and results in last minute cancellation of booking with competitors such as Airasia and Malindo to stand the most from the disaster. This is especially true given AirAsia recent foray into the medium-range (five and eight hours flight) to further steal booking of Malaysia Airlines specifically with flights to Japan and Australia.
(2) MAS Supplier : Brahim (Bursa : 9474) : STRONG BUY
Regardless of MAS direction, Brahim stand to win as the contract has been fixed and MAS must pay RM250 mil a year until contract ends in year 2028.
(3) Technology Communication Software & Security Hardware : Willow, Vitrox, iTronic and KESM (Bursa : 0008, 0097, 9393 & 9334) : BUY
The incident may force substantial resources to be put towards improving security, in the areas of communication technology be it hardware or software.
In conclusion, Buy MAS for three year time frame. Buy Airasia & Buy Brahim for one year time frame. Sell MAS for one month time frame
Good luck and all hearts to the victims of MH370.
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Google攝影師帶你走進日本「鬼城」(007 Skyfall電影取景地)
日本軍艦島距離長崎縣約15公里,其最顯著的特徵是遭廢棄的混凝土建築和周圍的海堤。谷歌街景拍出一名攝像師,前往該島拍攝那些被人遺忘的美麗細節。
軍艦島以日本工業化時期島上的煤礦及其開礦活動聞名。1959年,軍艦島整個島的人口密度達到每公頃835人,居民區人口密度為每公頃1391人,是有記錄以來世界上最高的人口密度之一。
隨著20世紀60年代日本國內石油代替煤炭,日本政府開始在全國各地關閉煤礦,軍艦島的煤礦當然也不能倖免。今天那裡人煙稀少,光禿禿一片,是該島也被稱為鬼島的原因,後來成為007 Skyfall電影取景地。
這名攝影師爬過瓦礫和廢墟,捕捉並傳遞著那些早已被人遺忘的美麗細節。
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5kmKO_gGsc
喺香港, 亦有一個類似嘅地方, 又係成日有人去拍戲, 聽日開估
你可以親身用Street View上個島玩下:
https://maps.google.com/?t=m&layer=c&panoid=A3tTI4JZsf22r2rcUZch3w&cbp=13,353.58,,0,-11.61&cbll=32.627125,129.738635&ie=UTF8&ll=32.601277,129.738579&spn=0.090818,0.192947&z=12&source=embed
Villain's secret island in James Bond movie Skyfall
Do you remember the villain's secret island hideout in the latest James Bond movie Skyfall, the one that looked like a decaying industrial wasteland? That fictional location was actually based on a real place — the island of Hashima off the coast of Nagasaki Prefecture in Japan. Due to its unique flat shape, the island is most widely known in Japan by its nickname Gunkanjima — aka "Battleship Island."
Starting in the late 19th century, Hashima served as a coal mining facility and residential complex for 5,000 people. After the decline of coal mining in the 1970s, however, the island became completely abandoned, only opening up again to tourists in 2009. Hashima has transformed into an eerie tourist destination where you can see a once thriving town decaying and totally devoid of life. Apparently, Hashima's buildings are deteriorating so rapidly that you can hear parts of the concrete collapse as the wind blows from the ocean.
While we can't replicate those unearthly sounds on Google Maps, we can now give you 360° panoramas of the Hashima with today's launch of Street View imagery for the island. Thanks to assistance from Nagasaki City, we were able to collect imagery with the Google Trekker beyond the cordoned-off areas for tourists and into off-limits paths around the island. We also used our Business Photos technology to let you peek into the abandoned buildings, complete with ancient black-and-white TVs and discarded soda bottles.
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