20161006 早上參加台經院國際處舉辦的The 31st Pacific Economic Community Seminar “Quest for Economic Growth Engines”研討會。我被安排開幕做一個致詞，及第一場的主持。結束就已經近12點。致詞稿如下，請批評指教。(說實在有點太長，會不會？)
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,
Welcome to the 31st Pacific Economic Community Seminar. The theme of this year’s seminar is “Quest for Economic Growth Engines”, which is also an international project of PECC. We initiated this project to the PECC Standing Committee in Yangzhou, China last week.
The reason for proposing such a project is because we have noticed that the IMF has constantly revised downward its outlook for global economic growth since the fourth quarter of 2014. In addition, economists have been stressing a “new normal” or a “new mediocre.” Strong growth or solid recovery seems very unlikely for the time being.
In addition, geopolitical factors are furthering uncertainties amid deteriorating economic conditions; large economies are not showing leadership to pull the world economy along, rather they are desperately trying to cope with their own difficulties. In the face of heavy fiscal constraints and debt pressure, extreme monetary operations, through quantitative easing, have become one of the few workable options. Overcapacity due to overinvestment at bad times has been an issue causing inexhaustible structure reforms, whereas continuous reforms have also slowed growth momentum and limited growth potential. When big players are dealing with either tepid growth or periodical headwinds, soggy demand holds back others that are closely associated with global or regional supply chains.
As every economy is specialized in specific ways, almost none are immune to shrinking world demand. Therefore, to pick one’s growth potential is no longer simply to seek the betterment of oneself, but the well-being of all. Consumption, investment and trade are main engines that used to drive economic growth yet have seemingly lost steam in recent times. Decision makers are responsible for building healthy environments that are able to encourage consumption, investment and trade.
Private or household consumption is the most important component of GDP. Despite consumption preferences and decisions being dissimilar among the economies, it is a rule of thumb that demand for consumption goods is strong in good times, whereas consumers tend to retreat in bad times. Since the marginal propensity to consume theory indicates that an increase in consumer spending occurs with an increase in disposable income, avoiding income traps is essential to support consumption. Income traps have been present in different forms: emerging economies are suffering from middle-income traps, while advanced economies are stressing high-income traps.
In addition, to escape from income traps, building sound social safety nets is also a necessary task to promote private consumption. Saving is critical, especially for developing economies when lacking sufficient social safety nets. However, high saving rates restricts other economic activities, such as consumption. With well functioning safety nets, people will be more willing to spend.
As for investment, it is the key for growth. Besides the fact that investment is a crucial component of domestic demand, it also paves the way for supplying external demand. Not only emerging, but also advanced economies have strived to attract foreign investments. For emerging economies, foreign investment comes with technology and the chance to upgrade economic capacity. For advanced economies, foreign investments bring in capital and job opportunities. Complicated and excessive regulations, poor infrastructure and unstable political systems are some of many reasons that could impede potential foreign investments. Hence, capacity building to create healthy environments through information and knowledge sharing among economic partners to eliminate or mitigate those unattractive factors is much needed.
Last but not least, trade is an engine for GDP growth; otherwise negotiations for most free-trade agreements would not be so difficult to conclude. The conclusion of the TPP has been in the spotlight, as regional supply chains will be reshuffled when the treaty comes about. The TPP also sets a high quality benchmark for others, including the RCEP and the TTIP. However, we are certainly not sure if TPP can be ratified at this moment with respect to so many uncertainties.
Even so, free trade is in theory good for all participants. If an agreement covers the region, then it would be beneficial for the entire region. When a free-trade deal is implemented, tariff and non-tariff barriers are eliminated. As a result, suppliers’ and consumers’ surpluses are maximized; overall welfare increases and resources are optimally allocated. However, free trade poses serious threats for outsiders. For example: rules of origin require a high percentage of intermediate components of a final product to enjoy duty-free treatment. Those requirements reduce outsiders’ chances to compete with members in that trading bloc. As more members will certainly create more benefits, making sure every economy is included would be to seek the well-being of all.
To address the “new mediocre” and revive or explore growth engines, CTPECC is undertaking an international project in line with this seminar. We are honored to have many opinion leaders here to share their views with us today.
Ladies and gentlemen,
With these words, I wish our seminar all success and I wish you all an enjoyable day in Taipei. Thank you.
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