#Editorial AppleDailyHK|"Now the CCP has launched a jarring, tempestuous Hong Kong revolution and wantonly wielded its iron fists of the dictatorship of the proletariat, it is almost as if the CCP has moved its long-established methods of struggle to Hong Kong, yet in reality, this is completely different from all past sorts of civil wars and power struggles. This is a struggle against universal value. This is a fight against civilized society. And this is no doubt going to be a whole new chapter in the revolutionary history of the CCP. When the flag of the CCP flutters right on top of the Government House (who knows if it would be renamed the Red House or Bauhinia House by then), the CCP can then declare that the theory of the Hong Kong Revolution under the party’s leadership is a core component of Xi Jinping’s thought, as well as the pinnacle of contemporary Marxism-Leninism."
Read more: https://bit.ly/2Pl5WqB
"中共如今發動狂風驟雨的香港革命,肆意揮舞無產階級專政的鐵拳,看似正把中共的傳統鬥爭手法搬到香港,但本質上與過往的內戰、權鬥都有所不同,是與普世價值的鬥爭、與文明社會的鬥爭,勢必成為中共革命史的新篇章。當中共黨旗在香港禮賓府(屆時不知要改名紅旗府還是紫荊府)飄揚時,中共就可以宣佈黨領導下的香港革命理論是習近平思想的重要組成部份,是當代馬列主義的頂峯。"
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leadership theory 在 堅離地城:沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World Facebook 的精選貼文
【#TheDiplomat🌍】難得The Diplomat讀者對香港有興趣:
The series of iron-fisted moves last month in Hong Kong may seem sudden to international observers: Hong Kong government’s earlier reinterpretation of the China-Hong Kong relationship, the election of a pro-Beijing legislator to be a Legislative Council chair through a controversial mechanism, and Beijing’s recent decision to impose a national security law on Hong Kong. The desire to bring Hong Kong under the banner of “one country, one system” is not impulsive. Quite the contrary, it’s a calculated campaign to initiate a so-called “second reunification with Hong Kong” — since the first reunification after the handover, using a lenient soft-power approach, has supposedly failed.
What are Beijing’s calculations that motivate this bold campaign now? And more important, will the campaign work?
While I remain highly skeptical of solely applying the realist framework to study Hong Kong, Beijing’s mentality is nonetheless entirely realism-driven. It is therefore essential to use this lens to understand more of their thoughts.
COVID-19: A Golden Opportunity on the International Stage?
To start with, the coronavirus pandemic seems to have created an ideal backdrop for Beijing to push forward its iron-fisted policy toward Hong Kong. The West has been devastated by the pandemic, more so than China, and has been slower to recover economically. Instead of decoupling from China, Beijing thinks the West is desperate for an influx of Chinese capital and markets. This notion encourages Beijing to pursue brinkmanship, in the form of confrontative “wolf warrior diplomacy,” its escalation of sharp power, and, most recently, Hong Kong’s national security law. As long as the international community does not put their condemnation into action, Beijing will keep pushing the envelope.
Beijing is convinced that the chambers of commerce representing other countries in Hong Kong will always place profits above all else as long as the national security law does not threaten them. Business deals struck at the crucial moment can entice foreign businesses to use their lobby teams in their home countries in Beijing’s favor.
Although anti-China sentiment has become more mainstream, Beijing, the major beneficiary of globalization in the past two decades, has tied its destiny with various elites internationally. These “friends of China” can be swayed to safeguard Beijing’s interests, but the up-and-coming leaders in many countries look less friendly. Therefore, the window of opportunity for Beijing to act is closing before the new value-driven generation comes to power.
The Lack of Incentive Behind the U.S. and U.K.’s Escalating Rhetoric
While U.S. politicians from left to right are vocal against China, their ultimate goal, Beijing believes, is to win votes in the November election. They would hence avoid hurting the interest groups they represent and go easy on actions aiming to punish China, such as denying Hong Kong’s status as a separate customs territory, sanctioning Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong, or escalating the trade war.
Even though the Trump administration is ramping up the rhetoric to sanction China, protecting Hong Kong’s autonomy is not one of the United States’ core interests. In contrast, having control over Hong Kong is China’s core interest. Beijing would rather make concessions over other disputes with Washington in exchange for claiming victory in Hong Kong for its internal propaganda.
Britain, the co-signer of the Joint Declaration for Hong Kong’s handover, is arguably most entitled to denounce Beijing’s violation, which would give mandates to the United States to act. But Beijing is convinced that Britain, not as powerful as it used to be, will not make such a move. Beijing’s recent plans to withdraw businesses from the United States and list them in the London stock market is a move to place a wedge between the two powers. U.S. President Donald Trump’s unilateralism and his harsh stance against U.S. allies also strengthens Beijing’s conviction that the West will not follow the United States’ lead.
Beijing’s Divide and Conquer Strategy in Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s parliament, the Legislative Council (LegCo), is a major roadblock to Beijing’s control, as demonstrated twice since the handover — in 2003 when the national security law was first introduced and in 2019 with the anti-extradition legislation that sparked city-wide protests. In both setbacks, Beijing lost control when moderate pro-establishment legislators broke away from the party line in the face of public outcry. As the September LegCo election approaches, the last thing Beijing wants is for the election to become a de facto referendum on the single issue of the national security law, which could result in another landslide win for the democratic parties. The law would be untenable to the international community if it’s opposed by both pro-democracy voters, which according to polls account for 60 percent of the votes, and moderate pro-establishment voters.
The moderates, despite their reluctance to embrace hardline rule in Hong Kong, differ from the more militant faction within the non-establishment camp in that the former rejects the so-called “mutual destruction” option, which risks Hong Kong’s special trade status — its economic lifeline — as a bargaining tactic to force Beijing to back off. Now that Washington is considering withdrawing Hong Kong’s privileges, the possibility of mutual destruction is becoming real. As Beijing has been promoting a narrative that all supporters of the protest movement’s “Five Demands” are bringing about mutual destruction, Beijing hopes the moderates, in fear of losing their financial assets, might turn toward the establishment.
On the other hand, the pro-democracy camp is at risk of breaking apart. Moderate pro-democracy supporters have been going to rallies to keep up with the political momentum. However, marches with more than a million participants would be impossible under the current oppressive environment. For example, the authorities abuse COVID-19 social distancing measures to suppress rallies, permits for peaceful protests are increasingly difficult to obtain, pro-establishment businesses heavily censored the social media activities of employees, and outspoken individuals are often cyberbullied.
Without support from the moderates, some within the pro-democracy camp may radicalize, as Beijing expects. The radicalization would fit Beijing’s tactic of painting protests as separatism and terrorism, justifying the imposition of the national security law. The trajectory would be similar to Beijing’s handling of the 1959 Tibetan “riots,” during which Mao Zedong’s directive was “the more chaotic the scene, the better.”
The Nationalistic Agenda to Divert Domestic Attention
But after all, to Beijing, Hong Kong is not just Hong Kong. In the wake of the pandemic, Beijing urgently needs to uphold nationalism to divert unwanted attention from its economic crisis. That includes a global propaganda campaign to promote its triumph over COVID-19. Upgrading the Hong Kong protests to a national security issue — as a battle against foreign interference to complete the “reunification with Hong Kong” — best suits the nationalist atmosphere. The all-time low sense of belonging with China among the new generation in Hong Kong further justifies a strong-arm approach. The success of the strategy would offer a way to reunite with Taiwan, which would consolidate Xi’s leadership within the Communist Party.
Also, including the Hong Kong issue as part of the national agenda means that the Hong Kong government, which has already lost its will to govern, will dance to Beijing’s tunes.
This comprehensive crackdown on Hong Kong’s civil society is unprecedented. Beijing believes that the heavy-handed approach would pervade Hong Kong with a sense of powerlessness and bring it to its knees. As long as the international response is limited, the execution of the national security law, according to Chairman Mao’s “theory of contradiction,” will follow a script of “a soft hand” and “a firm hand.” That is, after its imposition, the law will initially apply restraint and be used only on individuals to set a stern example, so that the general public would feel as if the law does not impact them at all and property and stock prices would not fall. Gradually and subtly, if the realist formula of Beijing works, the “second reunification” could become a self-proclaimed success story for Beijing’s propaganda.
However, Beijing’s evaluations are not foolproof. Any single miscalculation could lead to a contradictory outcome for the People’s Republic of China. Is it really prepared?
▶️ 國安法:中國的現實主義框架
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HjhRbV8qTgo
⏺ 中美夏威夷峰會
https://www.patreon.com/posts/38378214
leadership theory 在 財經主播/主持人 朱楚文 Facebook 的最佳解答
【財經選文】
就在中國擔憂恐爆發第二波疫情之時,美國正積極拚復工,然而在經濟與健康安全天平上,如何能在擺盪中不至於失足真的是考驗人類智慧。
這篇華爾街日報英文版評論探討最近在美國討論熱烈的議題,到底政府能否或該不該以法律來控制?到底經濟重要還是健康安全重要?有沒有可以兩全的辦法?
翻譯其中兩段:
As Congress considers another Covid-19 rescue bill, the usual partisan divide has opened over limiting pandemic-related tort liabilities. Republicans and business owners argue that litigation will hamstring recovery. Trial lawyers, unions and Democrats counter that liability limits would encourage businesses to endanger employees and consumers. The Senate Republican leadership proposes immunity for all businesses that comply with public-health guidelines except in cases of “gross negligence” and willful misconduct.
正當國會考慮進行另一波新冠肺炎疫情紓困時,對於是否該開放造成疫情流行的責任限制,出現黨派分歧。共和黨和企業認為限制將會阻礙復甦,但民主黨、工會與律師則認為,責任限額將可能造成企業員工與消費者的安危。參議院共和黨領導人則提議,除非出現“重大過失”和故意不當行為,否則對所有符合公共衛生準則的企業應該給予造成疫情流行的責任豁免權。
Republicans’ approach is appealing in theory, but in practice it can’t be implemented without detailed regulatory standards—which in the case of Covid-19 won’t be written for some time. Rather than permanently change liability standards based on incomplete information about the virus, it would be wiser to enact an immediate but temporary immunity. That would permit the economy to begin reopening while allowing time for federal regulators to promulgate standards on which long-term immunity could be conditioned.
共和黨的政策理論上具有吸引力,但實際運作上,若缺乏詳細監管標準將無法實施。與其現在根據不完整的病毒資訊永久改變責任規範標準,不如制定暫時豁免權更明智,這將有助於經濟重啟,也讓聯邦監管機構有更充裕的時間根據變動情況制定更完整規範。
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這篇文章搭配最新消息:福特汽車復工後又出現3名員工確診,不得不再度停工來看,美國企業復工真的還是一條漫漫長路,畢竟誰擔得起造成疫情二度蔓延的責任呢?即便股市表現不錯,但全球經濟情勢仍應該保守看待。
楚文專屬VVIP華爾街日報訂閱,訂就送《全球頂尖領袖親授17堂課》和300元SOGO禮券,一起加入:https://events.storm.mg/member/TWWSJ/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lawsuits-neednt-block-recovery-11589993211?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
leadership theory 在 メンタリスト DaiGo Youtube 的最佳貼文
\Dラボが20日間無料⏩/
月額599円〜【本1冊の半分の値段】で
毎月20冊以上の書籍・論文の知識が
1日あたり【わずか10分】で学べる
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Ozubko JD, Macleod CM. The production effect in memory: evidence that distinctiveness underlies the benefit. J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 2010 Nov;36(6):1543-7. doi: 10.1037/a0020604. PMID: 20804284.
Patton, W. W. (1991). Opening students’ eyes: Visual learning theory in the Socratic classroom. Law and Psychology Review, 15, 1-18.
Mueller PA, Oppenheimer DM. The pen is mightier than the keyboard: advantages of longhand over laptop note taking. Psychol Sci. 2014 Jun;25(6):1159-68. doi: 10.1177/0956797614524581. Epub 2014 Apr 23. Erratum in: Psychol Sci. 2018 Sep;29(9):1565-1568. PMID: 24760141.
Kapur, Manu, and Katerine Bielaczyc. “Designing for Productive Failure.” The Journal of the Learning Sciences, vol. 21, no. 1, 2012, pp. 45–83., [www.jstor.org/stable/23266307][1].
Cyr, A.-A., & Anderson, N. D. (2012). Trial-and-error learning improves source memory among young and older adults. Psychology and Aging, 27(2), 429–439. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0025115
Grilli MD, Glisky EL. Imagining a Better Memory: Self-Imagination in Memory-Impaired Patients. Clinical Psychological Science. 2013;1(1):93-99. doi:10.1177/2167702612456464
Westwater, Anne & Wolfe, Pat. (2000). The Brain-Compatible Curriculum. Educational Leadership. #今なら
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