核電不敵再生能源,衰退已成定局
2017《世界核能產業現狀報告》說到,「報告已敲醒鐘,辯論已然結束。世界能源的優先選擇順序上,核電將被太陽和風力所取代。這並非夢想或推估,而已成為現實」。而根據2020《世界核能產業現狀報告》全球能源發展的整體趨勢呈現為再生能源持續有突破性發展,核電則不論在發電量增長、發電占比或是發電成本上,皆 #不敵再生能源。
以下我們整理了幾點核能不敵再生能源的事實:
✅ 均化成本:核電已比風、光貴將近4倍
根據金融諮詢和資產管理公司拉札德(Lazard)2019年的能源技術成本報告,太陽光電的均化成本(註1)從2010年每度電 0.359美元降至2019年0.041美元(USD/KWh),降幅89%;風電從每度電0.135美元降至0.04美元,降幅70%;核電成本十年來則上升了26%,從每度電0.123美元漲至0.155美元,已比風、光貴將近四倍。
✅ 投資金額:全球再生能源投資金額是核電的10倍
《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》(註2)指出,2019年全球挹注於再生能源上的總投資超過3000億美元,是核能發電投資的十倍之多。
✅ 就業人數:未來再生能源就業人口是核電的36倍
根據國際再生能源總署(IRENA)2018年的報告(註3),2016年全球再生能源就業人數已達到近1000萬人,核電為70萬,而在全球升溫於世紀末前控制在2度C的情境中,再生能源至2050年預估可創造2880萬個就業機會,核電為80萬。
✅ 平均建置期:核電比風跟光多花2倍時間
根據五位能源學者分析123個國家的數據後共同發表的報告《對照追求再生電力、核電國家間的減碳排放量差異》(註4),核電的平均前置期為 90 個月,風力和光電僅為 40 個月。因此在投資同樣金額之下,再生能源比易受延宕的核電更能迅速地減少碳排放。
✅ 碳排放量:核電碳排最高將達到再生能源的10至18倍
史丹福大學環境工程學系教授Mark Jacobson的研究報告指出(註5),將不同電力來源生命週期,包括採礦、燃料製造、電廠營運到後端除役與廢料處理過程之碳排都完整計入時,核電的碳排放量將高出再生能源10到18倍。另一個匯集分析了103份核電生命週期碳排的研究(註6)則指出,每度核電的平均碳排約為66克二氧化碳當量,相較之下太陽光電是32克二氧化碳當量、離岸風力則是9克二氧化碳當量。
Jacobson也指出另一個常被忽略的「機會成本碳排」,是指由於興建速度緩慢,需要耗費更多時間依賴化石燃料,因此相較其他更快速的電力選項會再增加額外的碳排。新建核電的機會成本碳排和風電相比,每度電為64至102克二氧化碳當量。
✅ 發電佔比:再生能源占比超越核電
非水力再生能源在2019年時貢獻了全球10.39%的發電量,首度超越核電的10.35%,其中核能發電的發電占比自1996年以來便持續下降,2019年只比前一年微幅成長0.2%。
✅ 裝置容量年成長:風和光是核電的65倍
根據《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》,全球非水力再生能源在2019年新增的裝置容量達到184GW,創下歷史新高,其中風力發電量新增59.2GW,年增率為13%;太陽光電新增了98GW發電量,年增率為24%,相較之下,核能發電的淨成長僅為2.4GW,年增率為3.7%,且有一半來自於中國。
✅ 國際能源總署的評估:再生能源減碳貢獻遠超過核電
國際能源總署(IEA)今年發布的「2050淨零:全球能源部門路徑圖」報告(註7)中指出,為了達到2050年淨零目標,再生能源在全球電力的占比需要達到將近90%,核電則不到10%。
種種對比顯示核電在現今社會已經是過時又危險的舊世紀產物,全世界都在減少核電(除了中國),台灣卻還有某群人在掙扎,不免讓人擔心是否墨守成規,不願接受世界趨勢。因此,我們邀請大家在12/18的全民公投第17案投下不同意票,讓台灣邁向更乾淨、更安全的家園。
#分手吧我們不核四
#核四公投17不同意
#12月18日公投讓我們大家ㄧ起對核四公投案投下不同意票
---
註1:均化成本(Levelized Cost of Energy)用來計算發電設備壽命週期內的平均發電成本,包括投資、運轉與維護、燃料及除役成本,是評估電力技術競爭力的基本指標。
註2:《2020世界核能產業現狀報告》”World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2020” https://www.worldnuclearreport.org/-World-Nuclear-Industry-Status-Report-2020-.html
註3:國際再生能源總署(IRENA)- " Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050 "
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2018/Apr/IRENA_Report_GET_2018.pdf
註4:《對照追求再生電力、核電國家間的減碳排放量差異》(Differences in carbon emissions reduction between countries pursuing renewable electricity versus nuclear power)https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344482658_differences_in_carbon_emissions_reduction_between_countries_pursuing_renewable_electricity_versus_nuclear_power
註5:”Evaluation of Nuclear Power as a Proposed Solution to Global Warming, Air Pollution, and Energy Security” https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/NuclearVsWWS.pdf
註6:"Energy Balance of Nuclear Power Generation" https://www.energyagency.at/fileadmin/dam/pdf/publikationen/berichteBroschueren/Endbericht_LCA_Nuklearindustrie-engl.pdf
註7:"Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector" https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/beceb956-0dcf-4d73-89fe-1310e3046d68/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf
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同時也有122部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過134萬的網紅Point of View,也在其Youtube影片中提到,อ้างอิง - Bendix, A. (2019, June 17). Chernobyl was the world’s worst nuclear-power-plant accident. Here’s how it compares with Fukushima and Three M...
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nuclear power 在 Focus Taiwan Facebook 的最佳解答
Taiwan's annual nuclear emergency exercise will take place on Thursday and Friday at the First #NuclearPower Plant in Shihmen District, New Taipei, and its surrounding areas, the Atomic Energy Council said Monday.
https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202109060024
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In light of the US’ push for green energy development, domestic developers are now eyeing brownfield lands contaminated with industrial wastes in order to both achieve the country’s green energy target and give new life to abandoned, unused land.
nuclear power 在 Point of View Youtube 的最佳解答
อ้างอิง
- Bendix, A. (2019, June 17). Chernobyl was the world’s worst nuclear-power-plant accident. Here’s how it compares with Fukushima and Three Mile Island. Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.nl/chernobyl-fukushima-three-mile-island-nuclear-disasters-2019-6?international=true&r=US
- Blakemore, E. (2019, May 18). The Chernobyl disaster: What happened, and the long-term impacts. National Geographic. https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/chernobyl-disaster
- Borys, C. (2017, January 3). A vast new tomb for the most dangerous waste in the world. BBC Future. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170101-a-new-tomb-for-the-most-dangerous-disaster-site-in-the-world
- Darwell, J. (2006). Legacy: inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone. International Journal of Epidemiology, 35(4), 827–831. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyl123
- Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com). (n.d.). 5 myths about the Chernobyl nuclear disaster. DW.COM. Retrieved June 11, 2021, from https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-5-myths-about-the-chernobyl-nuclear-disaster/a-57314231
- Greenspan, J. (2018, August 22). 8 Things You May Not Know About Chernobyl. HISTORY. https://www.history.com/news/8-things-you-may-not-know-about-chernobyl
- Reuters Staff. (2011, March 15). Factbox: Key facts on Chernobyl nuclear accident. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nuclear-chernobyl-facts-idUSTRE72E42U20110315
- Russia’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle. (2021, May). World Nuclear Association. https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-o-s/russia-nuclear-fuel-cycle.aspx
- ทศพร กลิ่นหอม. (n.d.). ย้อนรอย เชอร์โนบิล มหันตภัยนิวเคลียร์ระเบิด ที่ร้ายแรงสุดใน- ประวัติศาสตร์. Sarakadee Lite. Retrieved June 11, 2021, from https://www.sarakadeelite.com/better-living/chernobyl-nuclear-power-plant/
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nuclear power 在 serpentza Youtube 的最佳解答
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