🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
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a bit of matter and a little bit more意思 在 SU YANG , 蘇婭 Facebook 的最佳貼文
早晨被一個夢打醒⋯
這個夢很有意思 代表我內心的渴求 狀態⋯有一陣子沒有這樣子有點複雜紛亂又清楚的夢⋯。
才知道今天是1月11日~1/11⋯❤️
在我生命中有兩個日子,刻劃很深的記號⋯11/1 和1/11~。我從來沒有覺得數字有什麼特別,但這兩個數字卻讓我永遠記得,紀念甚至感恩!❤️🌹🥰🥰
那是一段刻骨銘心很難明白的艱困過程,多年前1/11那個日子讓我跨了一個大門,有一點像是生孩子的過程,痛到你幾乎不想生,但是忍過那個最痛的階段,就是一個新生命的開始⋯,真的是如此啊⋯若沒有勇敢的跨過去往前走,我就看不到現在一片綠意盎然,充滿生氣的我的人生風景!所有的細節美麗和精彩啊⋯!
我曾經有一個經驗,很可愛很真實!轉換了我面對傷害的態度~!
特別傷你的人是你愛的人,特別難面對⋯。
有一次我跟主禱告,和著眼淚和氣憤⋯,在禱告中,我看見一個影像,就像電影一樣~那個傷我的人對著我扔石頭,但那石頭沒打著我,於是我撿起那塊石頭很生氣的回丟過去,扔過去時,覺得很沒力道手很輕⋯一看,我扔過去的,居然是一個麵包!我突然就噗哧的笑了⋯怎麼那麼沒力呀!連傷人都傷不到!🥰🥰這時上帝對我說,如果別人用黑暗用憎恨來對你,難道你回他的是一樣的嗎?你的心中有的是什麼呢?如果你有了我,你會知道要回應什麼⋯⋯
真的,我即刻從生氣到笑自己,這麼容易被激怒,因為我心中充滿的⋯真的不是這些,我可以給予的美麗和美好太多了⋯。
在黑暗中,唯有你自己成為光,才可以找出一條路⋯不要再等候其他的⋯。
你自己就可以成為光,你自己就是那個美麗!那個力量!那個智慧!那個勇敢!⋯只是你沒有找到那個鑰匙⋯甚至是你不想找~
最近有一個很深的體悟,不管你有多愛一個人,或者有人多愛你,不管你有多少人陪在你旁邊,你最終都是得孤獨的面對自己~靈魂的那一個你~如果你自己不能好好欣賞愛你自己,明白你自己是美麗的,你就沒有辦法自在和滿足~。

對於那些傷害與破碎,還有那些不明白為何傷害你的人~放了吧!
一句傷害的話都不用說,因為你更多的能量是看自己愛自己成為⋯美麗的那一個你~!使人看見你就開心就喜樂!好像吃到麵包那樣滿足!🥰🥰❤️🌹

在2021/1/11的今天~~這曾經令我痛哭欲絕的這一天,我向我的主獻上感恩~
謝謝祢總是不離不棄,在我最艱困的時候,用祢最溫柔有力的胸膛擁抱我!用祢最溫柔最有智慧的言語餵飽我,用祢最溫柔明亮的光帶領我,用祢最深最廣的愛情包裹我⋯。 使我可以在靈魂的海洋裡 大山裡面自由奔放⋯I love you,My Lord....🌷

(馬太福音 5:9) 使人和睦的人有福了!因為他們必稱為 神的兒子。
(Matthew 5:9) Blessed are the peacemakers: for they shall be called the children of God.
🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹
Photographer:Su 蘇婭
🌹❤️🌹❤️🌹❤️🌹
I Waked up by a dream in the morning...
This dream is very interesting. It represents the desire ,my situation in my heart....It hasn't been a somewhat complicated and clear dream like this for a while.
I just know that today is January 11 day~1/11...❤️
There are two days in my life, with deep marks...11/1 and 1/11~. I have never felt that the numbers are special, but these two numbers make me always remember, commemorate and even be grateful! ❤️🌹
It was a difficult process that was unforgettable and hard to understand. ..The day 1/11 many years ago ...made me step through a door. It was a little bit like the process of having a child. The pain was so painful that you almost didn’t want to give birth to ... But to endure the most painful stage is the beginning of a new life... , it’s true! If I didn’t step forward bravely, I would not see the greenery and fullness now. ...My Life...Landscape! All the details are beautiful and wonderful...!
I once had an experience, very cute and real! Changed my attitude in the face of injury~!
I once had an experience, very cute and real! Changed my attitude in the face of injury~!
The person who hurt you in particular is the one you love.
Once I prayed to the Lord, with tears and anger... During the prayer, I saw an image, just like a movie. The person who hurt me threw a stone at me, but the stone did not hit me, so I picked it up. I picked up the stone and threw it back angrily. When I threw it over, I felt very weak and light in my hand... At first glance, what I threw over was actually a piece of bread! Suddenly I laughed...how could I be so weak! Can't even hurt people! At this time, God said to me, if someone treat you in hatred in darkness way ,would it be the same for you to treat him? What is in your heart? If you had me, you would know what to respond...
Really, I instantly went from being angry to laughing at myself, I am so easily irritated, because my heart is filled with...it really is not this, I can give too much beautiful things and kindness...
In the dark, you can only find a way out by becoming the light yourself...don't wait for others...
You can become light yourself, and you yourself are the beauty! That power! That wisdom! That brave! ...But you didn't find the key...even you don't want to find it~
Recently, I have a deep realization that no matter how much you love someone or how many people love you, no matter how many people being with you, you will eventually have to face yourself alone~ the soul of you~ If you can’t appreciate and love yourself well, and understand that you are beautiful, you can’t be comfortable and satisfied~.
For those who hurt and broken, and those who don’t understand why they hurt you~ let it go!
There is no need to say a hurtful sentence, because you should take more energy to see yourself loving yourself and becoming...the beautiful you~! Make people happy when they see you! As satisfied as if they had bread! ❤️🌹
Today on January 11, 2021~~This is the day that once made me cry, I give my thanks to my Lord~
Thank you for always staying true to me. In my most difficult time, hug me with your most tender and powerful chest! Feed me with your tenderest and wisest words, lead me with your softest and brightest light, and wrap me with your deepest and broadest love... So that I can be free in the ocean of the soul...I love you, My Lord...🌷
🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹
a bit of matter and a little bit more意思 在 Campus TV, HKUSU 香港大學學生會校園電視 Facebook 的精選貼文
【專題訪問 Interview Feature】2019年度香港大學學生會周年大選中央幹事會候選内閣蒼傲訪問(內務篇) | Interview with Prism, the Proposed Cabinet of Executive Committee, The Hong Kong University Students’ Union of Annual Election 2019 (Internal Affairs)
(Please scroll down for English version.)
中央幹事會候選內閣蒼傲就內務議題接受本台訪問,就內閣理念、參選原因、及政綱如增設中央幹事會席位專注管理國際生事務等發/表意見。
訪問節錄如下:
1. 你們可否簡單自我介紹?
鄭鎮熙(下稱鄭):大家好我是鄭鎮熙(候選會長), 來自理學院五年級。 今次參選學生會因為對學生會有一些意見、 一些改進空間、 自己一直以來都希望為學校和學校未來的發展而發出一些聲音。
張信一(下稱張):Hi, so I am Shaun, studying Economics and Finance Year 3. The main reason why I have nominated myself to be the executive committee of the HKUSU is because, I have been a little bit unhappy with the way it has been running in the last few years I have been here. I want to see if I could make a difference.
李鎔津(下稱李):我是李鎔津, 候選大學事務秘書, 現就讀文學士及法學士二年級,參選中央幹事會的原因與其他兩位一樣希望令港大變得更加好, 我們有意見想提出和改進。關於議題參與率低的問題,若果我們有很幸當選, 便會為各個議題製作簡介, 希望讓同學知道怎樣從議題入手,從而提高參與率。 第二個原因是希望學生會會作為橋樑與校方討論大學事務,大學事務與每一個同學息息相關, 於各種議題同學都會想提出意見。
2. 你們可否解釋莊理念?
鄭:我們內閣名字是蒼傲, 分開八個字便是「蒼茫大地,傲骨依然」,頭四字是我們認為今屆學生會選舉只有四個人出選,反映出港大學生投入讀書以外活動有很大的疑問。蒼汒大地、傲骨依然正正代表了學校現在的情況、社會現在的情況、甚至整體香港的未來其實都是一個大問號。至於「傲骨依然」四個字我們認為作為港大學生應有一份榮譽感,畢竟港大是最高學府,所以每一個在港大學習的學生都是十分有能力,所以傲字不單是自我的鼓勵,亦是向所有的學生說面對不如意或逆境時,都希望能有一份永不放棄、倔強的精神,去迎接當下的困難,因為我們相信困難過後必會雨過天晴,會看見彩虹,所以這也是我們選擇Prism為我們英文閣名的原因。
張:What we think Prism represents is simple. We want to act like a prism, and we think everybody in HKU is like a light. We have a lot of potential in all of us and we want to use your light and turn the campus into a more vibrant environment for all of us. Hence, Prism, we think is pretty good symbol of what we intend to do.
3. 你們為何於重開提名期後才報名參選?
鄭:我們在(12月)24、25日左右收到重開提名期的電郵,剛好我跟一大班的朋友舉行聖誕派對,期間我們就這問題(重開提名期)進行討論。剛好認識到Shaun和 Kelly,我們三人想法上十分接近,就是認為既然沒有人參選,我們或者可以試一試,所以最後參選今屆的學生會。
4. 為何沒有人競逐外務副會長一職?
鄭:其實我們希望將視線放在會務及校務上。當然我們並非將外務議題全面拋棄,只是我們認為就校內參選氣氛、學生關注的事情等,都是在提醒我們今年學生會認該將更多的時間放在內務常務的議題上。
5. 你們於政綱提出「是時候做不同的事」,是什麼意思?
張:The thing we want to do differently, is to provide a more positive atmosphere that I think is more reflective of the student body in HKU as a whole. Because, if you look around, a lot of the posters and and lot of notices put out by the Student(s’) Unions of the past have been predominantly negative, I think they are right to be upset about some of the issues, but I think it’s a bit overboarded and a bit dramatic, and it turns a lot of students off. So, we acknowledge that there are issues but we will face them in a positive manner.
6. 近年學生會就社會時事(如DQ議員事件) 出聲明 ,若果來年當選會否出聲明?
鄭:我們認為學生會代表了全學校的學生去發聲,所以學生會應該絕大部份的時候保持中立,因為它只是一個連接外界及學生的橋樑。
7. 你們可否解釋就國際生議題上與往年學生會有何分別
張:First thing is, we are going to consider opening a new seat in the executive committee that is dedicated to non-local students' affairs. And of course we are going to have a series of activities that we hope to be more effective (in the issue of international students). For example, we are considering hosting a non-local orientation camp and some other cultural immersion activities, for example a mahjong class for non-local students, and also some cultural heritage tours. We hope to invite students of different nationalities to take part in it.
Campus TV has interviewed with Prism, the Proposed Cabinet of Executive Committee, The Hong Kong University Students’ Union, Session 2019, with regards to their treatment of internal affairs. Prism has expressed their opinions on internal affairs, which include: the Cabinet’s mission statement, the reasons for running as candidate, and details on their platform such as increasing the seats in the Students’ Union, and focusing on international students’ affairs.
The interview excerpts are as follows:
1. Could you please introduce yourselves?
Andrew Cheng Chun Hei (Cheng): Hello, I am Andrew Cheng Chun Hei (Proposed President), from the Faculty of Science Year 5. I am running for the Students’ Union because I have some opinions about the Union, I think there is some room for improvement. All along, I have wished to voice my opinions regarding the school and the school’s future development.
Shaun Cheung Shun Yat (Cheung): Hi, so I am Shaun, studying Economics and Finance Year 3. The main reason why I have nominated myself to be the executive committee of the HKUSU is because, I have been a little bit unhappy with the way it has been running in the last few years I have been here. I want to see if I could make a difference.
Kelly Li Yung Chun (Li): I am Kelly Li Yung Chun, the Proposed University Affairs Secretary, I am a Year 2 pursuing the Bachelor of Arts and Bachelor of Laws. The reason why I am running as candidate in the Annual Election 2019 is in line with the other two candidates in a sense that I wish to see the University of Hong Kong become better; we have comments we wish to raise and matters we wish to improve on. The first reason (of running as candidate) is due to the (students’) low participation rate in (social) issues. If we have the honour to be elected, we will make an introduction for each issue or topic, so that students know how to understand these issues, thus increasing (their) participation rate. The second reason is (we) wish to act as a bridge between students and the school in discussing about university affairs. Since each and every student are related to university affairs, they would want to express their opinions on various issues.
2. Could you explain your Proposed Cabinet’s vision/ mission statement?
Cheng: Our (Proposed) Cabinet’s name is Prism, in a non-abbreviated form (of the Chinese name of the Cabinet), it means “in face of the boundless land, remain a lofty and unyielding character”. The former part of the phrase reflects how we view Annual Election 2019, it shows a problematic lack of extra-curriculars for the University's students outside of academics. The whole phrase precisely represents the school’s current situation, the society’s current situation, even the whole of Hong Kong’s future, which is actually a huge question mark. The former part of the phrase means that the students of the University definitely has a sense of pride and honour, nevertheless it is the elitist of educational institutions, every student of the University must have superb abilities. Therefore, the words “lofty” and “unyielding” are not only a form of self-encouragement, they are to tell students to always have a persevering spirit in face of predicaments. Because we believe after tribulations, there is always rainbow after rain, which is why we chose “Prism” to be the English name of our Cabinet.
Cheung: What we think Prism represents is simple. We want to act like a prism, and we think everybody in HKU is like a light. We have a lot of potential in all of us and we want to use your light and turn the campus into a more vibrant environment for all of us. Hence, Prism, we think is pretty good symbol of what we intend to do.
3. Why did you run as candidate only after the reopening of nomination?
Cheng: We received the email about the Notice of Reopening Nomination (of Annual Election 2019) on around the 24th or 25th (of December). Coincidentally, me and a group of friends were having a Christmas celebration, during which we discussed about the matter (of reopening of nomination). Coincidentally, I met Shaun and Kelly, the three of us shared similar thoughts, that if nobody was running as candidate, perhaps we could give it a try, and so we nominated ourselves as the candidates.
4. Why is nobody running for the position of the Vice-President (External)?
Cheng: Actually, we wish to focus on affairs of student societies and organisations, and university affairs. That being said, we are not neglecting all of the external issues, we just believe that in view of the school’s participation atmosphere, and students’ awareness to issues, all of these (situations) are reminding us as the (Proposed) Students’ Union that we should spend more time in dealing with internal affairs and general affairs.
5. In your platform you raised that “it is time to do something different”, what does that mean?
Cheung: The thing we want to do differently, is to provide a more positive atmosphere that I think is more reflective of the student body in HKU as a whole. Because, if you look around, a lot of the posters and and lot of notices put out by the Student Unions of the past have been predominantly negative, I think they are right to be upset about some of the issues, but I think it’s a bit overboard and a bit dramatic, and it turns a lot of students off. So, we acknowledge that there are issues but we will face them in a positive manner.
6. The Students’ Unions of recent years have always issued statements in response to social issues. If you are elected for the coming session, will you do the same?
Cheng: We think that the Union represents and speaks on behalf of the whole of student community. Therefore, the Union should for the most part stay neutral on matters, because it is merely a tool that bridges the outside world and the students.
7. Can you explain what are the differences of your Proposed Cabinet compared to last year’s regarding the issue of international students?
Cheung: First thing is, we are going to consider opening a new seat in the executive committee that is dedicated to non-local students' affairs. And of course we are going to have a series of activities that we hope to be more effective (in the issue of international students). For example, we are considering hosting a non-local orientation camp and some other cultural immersion activities, for example a mahjong class for non-local students, and also some cultural heritage tours. We hope to invite students of different nationalities to take part in it.
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二零一九年度香港大學學生會周年大選其他候選人包括候選常務秘書麥嘉晉、校園電視候選內閣、學苑候選編輯委員會及候選普選評議員。
2019年度周年大選中央諮詢大會將於一月二十一日至一月二十五日在中山廣場舉行,時間為下午十二時半至二時半。
Other candidates for the Annual Election 2019 include the Proposed General Secretary Mak Ka Chun Eugene, the Proposed Cabinet of Campus TV, the Proposed Editorial Board of Undergrad, and the Proposed Popularly Elected Union Councillor.
The Central Campaign for Annual Election 2019 will be held from the 21st to 25th of January at the Sun Yat-sen Place, from 12:30 to 14:30.
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