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Continue ReadingKuwait case study. Oil rich country but money is running out / by investman
Kuwait, one country in the Middle East region.
Rich from occupying oil resources for a long time.
But you know, Kuwait is in big trouble today.
Well, the country's reserve funds are running out.
What happened to Kuwait? Invest man will tell you about it.
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Kuwait is an Asian country in the Middle East region.
Which is an abundance of oil resources.
In 2019, Kuwait had a GDP value of 4.3 trillion baht and a population of 4.4 million people.
Make GDP per capita of Kuwait population equal to 977,000 baht.
4 times more than GDP per head of Thai people.
Kuwait has an area of 17,818 square kilometers, which is about 30 times smaller than Thailand.
Despite being the world's 152th small country.
But Kuwait is the world's 6th most crude resource country.
And one of the country members who expired oil (OPEC)
Kuwait has a crude oil reserves up to 101,500 million barrels. This amount is estimated to be 6 % of the world's crude oil reserves.
If crude oil prices are around $ 40 per barrel, Kuwait's crude oil reserves will be worth 128 million baht.
When things are like this, it means
Oil resources are highly important to Kuwait economy.
Year 2019 Kuwait's crude export revenue is worth 1.5 trillion baht.
In which such value is considered.
90 % of Kuwait's total export income
90 % of Kuwait government income
And 35 % of GDP, Kuwait
In 2016
Anas Al-Saleh, Kuwait's finance minister in those days, warns the government to lower the country's expenditure budget to be prepared for a moment when petrol prices will fall in the future.
But his warning is right. Many people laugh at me.
Because most people believe that the country will continue to earn massive oil exports income.
After that, come on
During the 2016-2018 s, crude oil prices continue to adapt.
It's something that makes many people confident that Anas Al-Saleh warnings won't happen.
But then the emergence of the trade war between US and China in 2019 begins to pressure the global oil demand to slow down.
And the incident started worse than that
When the world later, the COVID-19 outbreak begins.
Plague plague making global travel and production drops.
The global oil demand is reduced from the same.
Besides, there's a fuel war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that both of them won't reduce their production capacity. The oil prices are increasingly adapting.
2018 Dubai crude oil prices average $ 70 per barrel
2019 Dubai crude oil prices average $ 64 per barrel
While the first 6 months of 2020, the average Dubai crude price is only $ 41 per barrel.
What happens is income from crude oil exports
90 % of Kuwaiti government income is greatly reduced.
Make the government not enough money to pay for public sector employers.
At present, more than 80 % of Kuwait people, or around 3.5 million people work as government employees.
Make government spend money in country's reserve funds during the 3 months after COVID-19 outbreak. The fund has gone down to over 411,000 million baht.
Which if crude oil prices don't rise from the same.
It will only make Kuwait government pay for public sector employees until November this year.
Enough is like this next year, Kuwait government needs to make a budget deficit.
Which will cause budget deficit to the level of 1.4 trillion baht
Thinking about a deficit, increasing almost 3 times more than the 2019-2020 fiscal year.
And the budget deficit is the 7th year in a row since 2014
What's worrisome is if the government needs to borrow money.
Among lower oil prices, Kuwait may earn enough oil export income to pay back the loan.
Make it now Kuwait has to have a concept of country reform.
Under Vision 2035 slogan: New Kuwait
The point is that it's important to try to reduce oil industry revenue reliance on revenue.
Which is to follow how much Kuwait's long-term plan this time will accomplish.
From this story preview of Kuwait country
It's something to remind us whether it's a country, corporation or individual.
Being too dependent on income in any way is a high risk.
Like this case, Kuwait relies on income from crude oil exports up to 90 % of export income.
If one day the main income drops or disappears.
From a long time ago, I might lose money easily too..
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References
-https://www.pionline.com/economy/oil-rich-kuwait-running-out-cash
-https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Kuwait-Is-Running-Out-Of-Money-To-Pay-Public-Salaries.html
-https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20200820-kuwait-will-not-be-able-to-pay-salaries-after-november/
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_area
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuwait
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves
-https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)
-http://www.worldstopexports.com/kuwaits-top-10-exports/
-https://fanack.com/kuwait/economy/
-https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M
- Form 56-1 Year 2562, Thai Oil Public Company Limited
-https://www.set.or.th/dat/news/202008/20088082.pdfTranslated
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