關於 financial markets中文 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

昨天看到一份不錯的投資書單。這份書單是 Corey Hoffstein 分享的，他是量化投資機構 Newfound Research 的投資長，所以裡面分享蠻多跟量化有關的書。大部分都只有英文，我把有中文翻譯的整理出來了，疫情在家來慢慢消化。

做量化的人很多都是看跟交易相關的書，如果今天投資週期比較長的人可以先略過。一般投資那幾本我都還蠻推薦的，之前也推過幾次了。風險管理有很多本沒看過，如果有人看過哪本不錯的歡迎推一下。

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【程式】
- 決斷的演算
- Python 自動化的樂趣｜搞定重複瑣碎 & 單調無聊的工作
- 高效能 Python 程式設計

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【風險管理】
- Risk and Asset Allocation by Attilio Meucci
- Tail Risk Hedging: Creating Robust Portfolios for Volatile Markets
- The Second Leg Down: Strategies for Profiting after a Market Sell-Off (有簡體翻譯：如何應對第二輪下跌)
- Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently
- 股價、棉花與尼羅河密碼：藏在金融圖表裡的風險
- 隨機騙局
- Red-Blooded Risk
- 風險之書

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【量化投資】
- The Laws of Trading
- Principles of Financial Engineering by Salih N. Neftci (有簡體翻譯：金融工程原理)
- Equity Smart Beta and Factor Investing for Practitioners
- Trend Following with Managed Futures
- Financial Hacking: Evaluate Risks, Price Derivatives, Structure Trades, and Build Your Intuition Quickly and Easily
- Expected Returns (有簡體翻譯：預期收益)
- The Volatility Smile
- Trading Volatility: Trading Volatility, Correlation, Term Structure and Skew

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【一般投資】
- 金融投機史：揭開貪婪時代九大金融泡沫
- When Genius Failed (有簡體翻譯：賭金者：長期資本管理公司的升騰與隕落)
- Efficiently Inefficient

Retail Today | Global News: Muji Is Struggling from Overseas Markets 今日零售 | 全球視點: 無印良品 海外市場的巨大挑戰 (中文在下)

In April, Muji's parent company Ryohin Keikaku Co. reported its first decline in operating profit in eight years and a financial outlook below analysts’ expectations, as well as a rare drop in same-store sales in China.

Investors are worried: After the value of the company almost tripled from 2013 to 2018, Ryohin Keikaku shares have declined nearly 40% in the past year.

President Satoru Matsuzaki has embarked on new ventures like Muji-branded hotels and Muji-designed buses while pushing into new markets such as India and Switzerland. To drive growth, he’s now taking steps like shifting production to cheaper locations and designing products specifically for Chinese consumers.

However, Muji still requires a faster adjustment to its overseas sales strategies. Muji always expanded to other countries with the same items it sells in Japan, assuming that its product range needs little translation for overseas consumers. That works well enough for, say, pencil cases, but not necessarily other items: It took Muji a decade in China to introduce sheets that fit standard Chinese beds.

Meanwhile, Muji’s “no brand” branding and straightforward, unchanging designs have made it a prime target for low-cost Chinese copycats. Muji’s prices are considerably more expensive outside of Japan due to taxes and tariffs, and a cottage industry of Chinese competitors like Miniso, Nome and OCE has sprung up to offer the same aesthetic for a fraction of the cost.

To avoid the price competition, Muji plans to produce more of its items in the countries where they’re sold. Next year, the company will roll out over 200 made-in-India products for its local stores. It’s also shifting more production to Southeast Asia, where labor is cheap.

In China, it opened its first development office in September, with employees responsible for monitoring local lifestyle trends⁠—a belated acknowledgment that Tokyo-based designers may not have the necessary insight into Chinese desires. Not everything will be internationalized, however. Muji will continue to make cosmetics, for example, in Japan, as the promise of high-quality raw materials is part of their allure.

Given how quickly its low-cost imitators have moved, Muji faces an uphill battle in China. And there and elsewhere, its ambition to become a global retail behemoth to match Uniqlo may require some of the strategic compromises made by other mass retailers—whittling its 7,000 products down to those of greatest sales potential, manufacturing items for speed rather than durability, and opening large locations in expensive shopping districts.

今年四月，無印良品的母公司 Ryohin Keikaku Co. 報告中顯示，8年來他們的營業利潤首次下滑、財務前景低於分析師的預期，以及中國同店銷售額出現罕見的衰退。

投資者擔心，在2013年至2018年間，公司價值幾乎翻了三倍之後，Ryohin Keikaku 股價卻在過去一年中，下跌了將近40％。

品牌董事長 Satoru Matsuzaki 已開展新的企業體，包括開設無印良品酒店、無印良品設計的巴士，同一時間也進軍印度和瑞士等新市場。為了推動增長，他正在採取新措施，例如將生產工廠轉移到成本更便宜的地方，並專門為了中國消費者設計產品。

然而，無印良品仍需要更快速調整海外銷售策略。Muji 在拓展到其他國家時，多半採取與日本銷售產品相同的策略，也就是假定自家產品到其他市場販售，並不需要太多的修改或客製化。這對鉛筆盒這類商品是還不錯，但卻不一定可以複製到其他品項；舉例來說，無印良品實際上花了十年，才推出適合中國標準床尺寸的床單。

同時，無印良品的「無品牌」品牌、直觀和一成不變的設計，使它變成中國低成本仿冒商的主要目標。由於稅收和關稅的影響，無印良品在日本以外的價格相當昂貴，而Miniso，Nome和OCE等中國競爭對手，透過大量的家庭手工業製造，只需花費很少的成品，就能為消費者提供相同的生活美學。

為了避免落入價格競爭，無印良品計劃在其銷售的國家生產更多產品。明年，他們將為印度門市推出200多種當地製造的產品。還計畫將更多產品轉移到勞動力便宜的東南亞。

在中國，無印良品在去年九月成立第一個開發辦公室，員工負責觀察、搜集當地的生活方式趨勢 - 這也代表著無印良品終於承認，在東京的設計師不見得了解中國當地消費者真正的需求。然而，並非需要把一切都做到國際化。例如，無印良品選擇繼續在日本生產化妝品，因為日本所代表的高品質原材料是一項承諾，仍對消費者存在著重大的吸引力。

因為低成本仿造商的快速推進，無印良品在中國正面臨著一場苦戰。他們將自己定位與全球零售巨頭「優衣庫」齊頭並進的野心，可能需要參考其他大眾零售商一些在戰略上的妥協 - 像是把七千種產品減少，直到只保留最具銷售潛力的品項、快速製造商品而非強調產品的耐久度，以及在高消費購物區開設大型旗艦店等。

⭐ 明年真的可以發大財嗎？⭐　
　　　　　　
本院經濟所發布2019年臺灣經濟情勢預測結果：
　　　　
我國出口需求及消費動能相對減弱，第三季實質GDP年成長率僅達2.27%，預期2018年經濟成長率將微幅調降為2.64%。展望2019年，全球經濟前景仍因貿易戰紛擾與中國需求放緩，加以美國減稅政策效應遞減，以及金融情勢轉趨緊縮，全球經濟成長動能將有所趨緩。

預估2019年實質經濟成長率為2.45%📊

💰物價：1至10月的消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期成長1.60%，核心消費者物價指數於相同期間則為1.34%，顯示物價仍相對穩定。

💱貨幣供給：10月雖受股災衝擊而使國內資金需求下滑，然累計前10個月M1B及M2年增率分別為5.30%及3.60%，顯示市場資金仍呈適度寬鬆。

👥勞動市場：今年前10個月之平均失業率為3.71%，顯示就業情況良好，情勢穩定。

國際情勢不明的情況下，我國政府積極推動重大公共工程建設、促進投資及強化內需產業發展等擴張性財政政策之實質效果，將成為臺灣經濟成長動能是否延續的重要關鍵。
　　
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Due to the heating up of China-U.S. trade conflict and more dramatic fluctuations in international financial markets, the pace of expansion in the global economy has shown instability and the downside risk is gradually getting realized, suppressing the growth momentum. Whist the U.S. economic performance is strong, growth of other major advanced economies such as Europe and Japan are not as strong as anticipated.
　　　　
The slowdown in China's economic growth partly due to the trade war is resulting in weak demand in both export and domestic markets. As for Taiwan, the real GDP grew by 2.27% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2018 as consumption weakened and export markets were affected adversely by the trade war.
　　　　
Therefore, the revised estimate of economic growth rate in 2018 is 2.64%. Looking forward to 2019, the global economic outlook is still suffering from the risk of trade wars, slowdown in China's demand, diminishing effects of the U.S. tax cuts and a tightening in financial markets, implying the global growth momentum will continue to slow. We expect the real GDP growth of 2.45% in 2019.

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中文新聞稿：https://www.sinica.edu.tw/ch/news/6076
English: https://www.sinica.edu.tw/en/news/6076