🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
low post意思 在 Re: [閒聊] 籃球小教室(教你看懂亂入live文) - 看板Jeremy_Lin 的推薦與評價
跟著補充一些。
請老手指教，這些是給之前甚少接觸籃球的版友看低。
box score的+/-值
就是指球員在場上時，球隊的得失分。
例如揪咪上場20分鐘，在他上場時間裡，尼克得20分，對方得10分，
那+/-就是+10。
painted area/paint 禁區；油漆區
泛指球場裡面（三分線內）有個矩型區域。
進攻三秒違例、進攻三秒
常聽到的三秒、進攻方被吹三秒就是指這個，
進攻方的球員待在禁區內超過三秒，必須在3秒之內雙腳皆離開禁區之後才能再踏入…
EX：尼克隊進攻時，揪咪還在弧頂持球，拳王或阿罵待在禁區裡超過三秒（只是假設）
所以大家會看到球員踩在禁區邊緣移動，避免三秒。
大家聽緯來的主播轉播時，可能會聽到Traveling、Loose ball foul，
Traveling是走步，
Loose ball foul是無持球時的犯規，
進攻防守方都沒有持球時發生的犯規，
EX：雙方搶籃板時。
（這樣寫是不是比較好？）
還有有人說揪咪應該往雙能衛的方向走，
雙能衛（Combo guard），指既能控球組織隊友，又能攻擊得分的雙重角色後衛。
犯規戰術；籃球賽技戰術之一。籃球比賽過程，因為比分落後、且時間即將
終了；為了爭取時間，採用犯規讓比賽計時暫時停止，如此假如防守落後一
方可以獲得控球權，或者抄、撥到球，就有機會反敗為勝。
EX：對Celtics時，大家在戰冷笑話為啥不用犯規戰術，可以往前翻翻文章。
High post 高位
罰球弧虛線地區至3分線圈頂區的周圍，
經常聽到的中鋒/前鋒拉到高位單打，
或者是外線球員要突破時，需要內線球員掩護的高位掩護，
高位指的大概就是這個位置。
EX：揪咪檔拆時，需要拳王或JJ上來幫忙掩護。
Low post 低位
中立區(neutral zone)以下到底線之間區域，包括籃筐兩側。
理論上就是指靠近籃框底下靠近底線附近的區域。
不過，高低位大概是一種相對性的概念。
Mismatch 防守錯位、錯位防守，被大吃小，
是指進攻與防守方體型、體能或速度差距太大，不是最佳的防守配對，
可能因為交換防守（swtiching）或是轉換防守（Transition）造成矮個子守高個子，
這組一對一防守幾乎會被破。
EX：因為防守錯位，讓Lin對上KG就被吃了。
尼克最近這幾場經常被人家擋拆後missmatch玩到爽...
Isolation/ISO 孤立單打戰術
進攻戰術之一。
規劃4位進攻球員在一邊，而讓第5位球員在單邊單打對方球員。
EX：揪咪帶球過半場後，把球丟給甜瓜ISO單打掉。
Screen/Pick 掩護
球員利用身體為障礙物，對隊友製造遮蔽防守方跟隨的障礙，
以利隊友獲得空檔攻擊。
EX：就如同上邊提到的高位掩護，拳王或JJ來幫揪咪擋一下，
讓他擺脫防守者以利切入或是尋找傳球機會。
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