關於 science project for weather ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

TCM Treatments of COVID-19

Written in Chinese by Dr. Andy Lee, March 7, 2020 (http://andylee.pro/wp/?p=7660)

Translated to English by Dr. James Yeh, March 13, 2020

I published an essay “From SARS to Novel Coronavirus” in Chinese on January 21, 2020 (http://andylee.pro/wp/?p=7169). At that time, I tried to discuss possible Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) treatments of Novel Coronavirus based on my clinical experience of treating many severe cases of pneumonia caused by various influenza and other diseases. Since then, I have directly and indirectly participated in treating patients of Novel Coronavirus successfully, had discussions with many doctors fighting the epidemic at the front line and many researchers conducting related researches, and read many reports on this subject. Although the “Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia” has been renamed to “COVID-19” (coronavirus disease 2019) and the name of the virus has officially named from “2019-nCoV” to “SARS-CoV-2”, I now firmly believe that my original judgment, views, and interpretations are correct. For the sake of easiness for people to read and share, in this essay, I am reorganizing my previous discussions and including some explanations on certain confusions as well.

First, there are numerous provinces and cities in China using TCM to fight the “COVID-19” (I will use the term “Coronavirus” from now on.) No matter whether the treatments were primarily using TCM or the combination of TCM and the methods of Western medicine, there have been a significant amount of positive outcomes. On the other hand, the views of how to use TCM to treat and the use of corresponding herbal formulas vary quite a bit. Even when TCM remedies were effective, why did some patients fully recover and were discharged from the hospitals but other patients still could not get the virus-free “negative confirmation” from virus DNA tests?

Many TCM doctors participating in the treatments and discussions often look at the Coronavirus issue from a single “Point” or the condition of the patient at that specific moment. Some interpreted the disease as “Dampness” (濕), “Dryness” (燥), “Cold” (寒), or “Heat” (熱). (Translator’s note: These interpretations are often the opposite ends of the spectra, like Dampness is opposite to Dryness; and Cold is opposite to Heat.) From the clinical practice point of view, those treatments based on such conflicting interpretations all had positive effects to some degrees. Then, which interpretation is the “correct one”? In fact, those simple interpretations all have some merits but don’t fully cover the subject in hand. Although TCM is based on “Dialectical Treatment” (辯證論治), i.e. treatment is derived from “observation and diagnosis” of patients’ complex symptoms, the most important thing is that disease shouldn’t be viewed as an isolated problem at a specific time, but the whole development of symptoms along a timeline. Not only we need to observe and diagnose the current ailment but also we have to understand the development history of the disease and to project how the disease will develop in the future. For a single patient, we might be able to focus on the clinical results of this patient. But for epidemics, we have to look at a bigger picture and take into account how this Coronavirus develops health issues inside the human body from TCM’s perspective. And, in clinical treatments, we also need to consider many variants caused by each patient’s preconditions and one’s strength to fight off the disease.

From my experience of curing many patients who were inflicted with flu-induced pneumonia and complications, and the recent participation in treating and curing Coronavirus patients, it is proper to summarize that no matter whether the virus is Coronavirus, bird flu, swine flu, or the “common” flu, we found that the bodily deterioration caused by the virus, in general, follows the description from the TCM theory first covered in the ancient literature “Treatise on Cold Damage on Miscellaneous Disease ” (傷寒雜病論). However, the progressions of the disease from such special viruses are much faster, more severe, and/or more persistent than that of the common flu. Patients’ own original “health” condition also complicates the progression. (Translator’s note: For example, the infliction rate of young children is much smaller than that of adults for Coronavirus.)

As I explained before, the TCM theory discussed that for the common flu or “catching a cold”, the disease starts with “Exterior Deficiency or Weakness” (表虛). That is, the “exterior” of the body is invaded by the “External Pathogen” (外邪), like virus, and has adverse reactions. (Translator’s note: Here the exterior doesn’t mean just the outside surface of the body like the skin, but all the surfaces topologically exposed to the outside like lining of throat, nose, and bronchus of the body.) This is the first stage of the whole episode and often can be effectively treated with the herbal prescriptions such as “Gui Zhi Tang” (桂枝湯). If the patient is not properly treated, the body fluids within the surface and muscles could not function properly. It will cause the transition to the next stage “Exterior Excess” (表實). (Translator’s note: The word Excess has various meanings: excessive reactions all the way to neoplasm, excessive wasteful things, etc.) Viral infection at this stage is matched to one of the several syndromes named with the corresponding herbal remedies such as “Ge Geng Tang” (葛根湯), “Ma Huang Tang” (麻黃湯證), and others. The TCM theory calls this stage “Exterior Coldness” (表寒). In history, many TCM doctors considered this stage as the body being hurt by outside coldness (傷於寒) or in plain words “Catching Cold”. However, that is a misunderstanding. While outside coldness is one of the causes leading to the stage “Exterior Coldness”, it is not the only cause. When the body fluids could not function properly, the normal body fluids which had proper fluidity to circulate and to fulfill vital functions (活水) became a pot of “Dead Water” (死水), i.e. wasteful water which can’t fulfill vital functions. In other words, the ancient literature “Treatise on Cold Damage on Miscellaneous Disease” (傷寒雜病論) is much beyond the simple interpretation of how to treat the ailment caused by “cold damage”, but a classical literature of explaining both the physiology and pathology of human body functions.

Normally, the ailment or symptoms of the common flu would be limited at this stage of “Exterior Coldness”. Even without any treatment, the human body often could fight off the virus with an immune response and fully recover. But when the effects of Exterior Coldness started to penetrate into the interior of the body, the first common organs to be affected will be the organs that have a short path to the outside. (Translator’s note: Topologically, trachea and lung are only a membrane distance away from the outside air.) Then the Exterior Coldness gets transformed into the next stages such as “Interior Coldness” (裡寒) and “Lung Coldness” (肺寒). (Translator’s note: Here “Lung” means the whole respiratory system, not only the lung organ.) Clinically, the patients start to show symptoms of the syndrome named after its herbal remedy “Xiao Qing Long Tang” (小青龍湯). At this stage, the patients have serious coughing and running nose. When the respiratory system is “affected by the coldness”, the body fluid function of the respiratory system gets affected. Just like when the cooling system of a car malfunctions, the engine would overheat. The circulation function of the lung becomes “Dry and Overheated” (燥热). This would lead to the next stage of “Heated Interior” (入裡化熱) and often be matched to its herbal remedy “Da Qing Long Tang” (大青龍湯). At this stage, it does not mean that the whole lung is “dry and heated”. In fact, many pneumonia patients exhibit “mixed coldness and heat” (寒熱夾雜) in the lung. For example, while the upper part of the lung is “dry and heated”, the lower part of the lung might suffer excessive mucus of a high density. Pleural effusion and hydronephrosis might start to develop quickly.

Such a complex situation was extensively discussed in Chapter 7 of the ancient literature “Synopsis of Prescriptions of the Golden Chamber” (金匱要略肺痿肺癰咳嗽上氣病脈證治第七篇). At this complex stage, the illness development varies significantly among patients of different preconditions and other variants. It is no longer the situation that a simple herbal remedy can be applied to all the situations. The TCM theory illustrates various treatments by those herbal remedies such as “She Gan Ma Hung Tang” (射干麻黃湯), “Ting Li Da Zao Xie Fei Tang” (葶藶大棗瀉肺湯), ”Ze Qi Tang” (澤漆湯), “Xiao Qing Long Jia Shi Gao Tang” (小青龍加石膏湯), and others. It doesn’t mean that one of the herbal remedies should be selected to treat a patient directly. Instead, the TCM Theory used these herbal remedies to teach its practitioners how to “think” and create a proper herbal remedy based on the conditions of a specific patient.

For example, the Coronavirus has quite a puzzling situation that many Western medicine doctors haven’t yet fully understood. Some severely affected patients exhibited fibrosis of the lung like the SARS phenomenon. Other severely affected patients did not have SARS-like lung fibrosis but had massive liquid cumulated in the lung, which even “drown” some patients to death. From the TCM point of view, it is not strange at all. Fibrosis of the lung is the typical following stage of Heated Interior matching to “Da Qing Long Tang” (大青龍湯). It was named as “Lung Atrophy” (肺痿) in the TCM theory. And the situation that one suffers from massive dense liquid accumulation is matched to symptoms of severe development after the stages matched to “She Gan Ma Hung Tang”( 射干麻黃湯) , “Ting Li Da Zao Xie Fei Tang” (葶藶大棗瀉肺湯), and others as discussed earlier. The TCM theory called it “Lung Abscess” (肺癰). In the TCM theory, Lung Atrophy and Lung Abscess are two progression paths of this virus depending on which path develops faster or even simultaneously. From the past and current reports, SARS virus tilts toward the path of Lung Atrophy, while the Coronavirus tilts a little more toward Lung Abscess.

The above explained the progression of flu and other epidemic virus infections. Now you might understand how different TCM doctors had different views or treatment methods, but all of the treatments had some partially positive effects. If a TCM doctor’s diagnosis at one particular moment was slight hotness of the lung, some mild herbs to “clean up the heat” (清熱解毒輕劑), often used by the “Southern School” doctrine (溫病派), might relieve the patient’s symptoms. But if a TCM doctor’s diagnosis at a different point of the progression was massive mucus accumulation, heavy dosage of strong herbs, often used by the “Northern or Classic School” doctrine (經方派) might be needed to treat Lung Abscess (肺癰). That is why we saw some reports that the “Pneumonia Formula One” (肺炎一號) used in Guangzhou city, which was based on mild herbs to reducing the “heat”, had some positive effects in Guangzhou but not so effective in Shanghai. In Shanghai, many TCM doctors had to switch to stronger herbal ingredient often found in “Da Qing Long Tang” (大青龍湯) and “She Gan Ma Hung Tang”( 射干麻黃湯) as discussed earlier. This was due to different weather patterns and different patients, i.e. different progression paths described in the previous paragraphs. In other words, from the specific moment of the doctor’s diagnosis, both views were correct. But neither of them grasped the progression timeline of this severe illness.

Another point raised earlier was why did some patients fully recover while others did not? According to the information given by the doctors on the front line, there were so-called “Western medicine and TCM combined treatments” in which Western medicine drugs were continuously given to the patients and TCM herbs were used as supplements. When adding TCM herbs had a positive effect and made a speedier recovery, it was all goodness. But when adding TCM herbs did not have positive results, then what? According to the doctors on the front line, the medical team did not really think through the stages of disease progression as discussed earlier and switch to different TCM remedies, but only increased the dosage of Western medicine drugs such as Interferon (干擾素), Chloroquine phosphate (磷酸氯喹) used to treat malaria (抗瘧疾藥物), Arbidol (阿比多爾) used to treat influenza (抗流感藥物), and others. Heavy dosages of such drugs had severe side effects and sequelae. In those “combined” treatments, the medical teams didn’t have enough TCM expertise to make sound decisions on herbal remedies. Instead, they simply used TCM herbs as “extra help”.

How about treatments primarily with TCM remedies? The chief Western medicine expert who leads the fight against the Coronavirus, Dr. Nanshan Zhong, admitted under political pressure that TCM was useful against light or even medium threat situations of Coronavirus but insisted that TCM could not cure severe cases. His statement was based on his belief that there is no ingredient in TCM herbs that could kill Coronavirus. I am sorry to say that Dr. Zhong is incorrect in this aspect. With solid patient cases as proof, TCM can actually cure severe cases of Coronavirus infection and other flu-related infections. When it did not, it is the particular TCM doctors who had not mastered the whole theory and methodology of TCM. But one thing that Dr. Zhong said correctly was that no ingredient in TCM herbs can “kill” the virus. However, the TCM treatment isn’t based on the ability to kill the virus. (Translator’s note: Western medicine drugs could not kill the virus either.) Many people still have the level of limited understanding that TCM can only improve the immunization ability or some herbs such as the root of Isatis tinctoria (板藍根) has some natural antibiotic chemicals. Such understanding is unfortunately poor and very limited. Although modern medical science still could not fully comprehend TCM theory and its clinical outcome, against Coronavirus, the better explanation is that TCM remedies can “improve the internal environment of the human body”. (Translator’s note: So that the patient would not fall into the adverse conditions that the organs fail to function.) In plain words, when the virus causes more mucus, TCM remedies reduce the mucus. When the virus causes fibrosis, TCM remedies reduce the “heat level” of the lung. TCM remedies tend to push the body and organs back to the original healthy states. Once the environment is unfriendly for the virus to keep replicating, the patients will have higher chances to eradicate the virus by themselves and recover. One can probably say that this explanation and method is similar to the idea of using Western medicine Interferon but without severe side effects. That is, TCM can cure not because it has the ability to “kill” virus by some ingredients but to help to restore patients’ “internal environment” to healthier conditions that prevent the virus from replicating quickly. (Translator’s note: If one buys the same argument made by Dr. Zhong that a medication needs to have ingredients to kill the Coronavirus, then all the medications used today would not qualify. Then do we give up? In fact, why TCM was not selected to treat severe cases was because those stronger and less commonly used herbs were not applied properly or the TCM doctors at hand had less confidence for doing so. )

Now, we can go back to discuss how clinically TCM can treat and cure Coronavirus patients. For light to mild cases, most of the different TCM treatment methodologies could help. For medium to severe cases, as I discussed in my previous essay, we need to utilize the strength of certain herbs:

- Sheng Shi Gao (Gypsum, 生石膏): To reduce heat inside the lung (清肺熱) and enhance the liquid circulation in the respiratory system (加強肺津液運作)

- She Gan (Belamcanda chinensis, 射干)、Zi Wan (Aster tataricus, 紫菀) 、Kuan Dong Hua (Tussilago farfara flower, 款冬花)、Sheng Ban Xia (Pinellia ternate, 生半夏)、Ting Li (Sisymbrium indicum, 葶藶)、Da Ji (Euphorbia pekinensis Rupr., 大戟), etc.: To reduce accumulation of excessive mucus and wasteful fluids inside the respiratory system (去肺下方濃稠痰飲、肺積水、胸腔積液等)

- Ma Huang (Ephedra sinica Stapf., 麻黃), etc.: To enhance the lung function (宣肺、發陽)

- Mai Men Dong (Ophiopogon japonicas, 麥門冬)、Xing Ren (Prunus armeniaca, 杏仁): To moisturize the lung (潤肺)

That is, we need to combine the theory and targeted responses of the various herbal remedies such as “Da Qing Long Tang” (大青龍湯), “She Gan Ma Hung Tang” (射干麻黃湯) , “Ting Li Da Zao Xie Fei Tang” (葶藶大棗瀉肺湯), ”Ze Qi Tang” (澤漆湯)“, etc. as discussed earlier, and properly adjust the dosages and ratios of ingredients to fit the requirements of individual patients based on their conditions. In addition, if the patients have other ailments, those conditions need to be taken into account also, such as:

- For “Coldness and Wetness of the Middle and Lower Abdomen“ (中下焦寒濕) or “Deficient Kidney Function” (腎陽不足): Add Bao Fu Zi (processed Aconitum carmichaelii Debx root, 炮附子)、Xi Xin (Asarum sieboldii, 細辛), etc.

- When the liver function is weak or damaged by heavy dosages of Western medicine drugs such as interferon: Add Chai Hu (Bupleuri Radix, 柴胡)、Huang Qin (Scutellaria baicalnsis Geprgi root, 黃芩), etc.

There is no question that it is very challenging to fight off the Coronavirus. The clinical treatments will seriously test TCM doctors’ thorough understanding of TCM and their ability and courage to call the right shots under a great amount of pressure. On the other hand, it is also a good time to prove that TCM can be effectively used to fight various viruses in a superb and speedy fashion with little sequelae and at a much lower cost.

For fighting such a new and aggressive virus epidemic, there is no single TCM herbal formula that can treat all situations. One must have deep knowledge of the stages of the disease, along with close examinations on patients’ preconditions, so one can use the most effective prescription to intercept and turn the symptoms around. On the other hand, many provinces and cities in China provided TCM guidelines on Coronavirus treatments and pre-fixed herbal formulas to address people’s demands on a herbal remedy for “common usage”. Among them, I found the current recommendation from the Chinese National TCM Administration the most appropriate for a good percentage of Coronavirus patients. The herbal remedy was recently named as “Qing Fei Pai Du Tang” (清肺排毒湯), which could probably be translated to “clean up the lung and get rid of the toxic”. In line with the discussion above, this specific herbal formula includes Ma Huang (Ephedra sinica Stapf., 麻黃), Zhi Gan Cao (processed Glycyrrhiza uralensis Fisch., 炙甘草)、Xing Ren (Prunus armeniaca, 杏仁)、Sheng Shi Gao (Gypsum, 生石膏)、Gui Zhi (Ramulus Cinnamom, 桂枝)、Ze Xie (Alisma orientalis, 澤瀉)、Zhu Ling (Polyporus umbellatus, 豬苓)、Bai Zhu (Atractylodes macrocephala Koidz., 白朮)、Fu Ling (Poria, 茯苓)、Chai Hu (Bupleuri Radix, 柴胡)、Huang Qin (Scutellaria baicalnsis Geprgi root, 黃芩)、Jiang Ban Xia (Pinellia ternate, 薑半夏)、Sheng Jiang (Ginger, 生薑)、Zi Wan (Aster tataricus, 紫菀)、Kuan Dong Hua (Tussilago farfara flower, 款冬花)、She Gan (Belamcanda chinensis, 射干)、Xi Xin (Asarum sieboldii, 細辛)、Shan Yao (Dioscorea oppositifolia, 山药)、Zhi Shi (Citrus aurantium, 枳實)、Chen Pi (Citrus reticulata Blanco, 陳皮)、and Huo Xiang (Pogostemon cabin, 藿香). Since such an herbal remedy was designed for “common usage”, it has to consider all degrees of disease severity. Therefore, the dosages can’t be too heavy, as the majority of the patient cases are light to mild. As the result, “Da Qing Long Tang” (大青龍湯) discussed earlier became a lighter herbal formula named as “Ma Xing Gan Shi Tang” (麻杏甘石湯). The stronger herbal ingredients such as Ting Li (Sisymbrium indicum, 葶藶) and Da Ji (Euphorbia pekinensis Rupr., 大戟) to treat pleural effusion and hydronephrosis are not included. Hence, for severe cases, the herbal remedy from the Chinese National TCM Administration needs to be enhanced with additional ingredients and larger dosages.

In summary, as long as the TCM doctors have sufficient knowledge and clinical experience, by applying the proper methodology, TCM alone is capable of dealing with severe Coronavirus infections. (Translator’s note: There is much to do to develop a comprehensive diagnostic and treatment methodology which can help many TCM doctors to pinpoint the patient’s condition and stages of the infection to make the proper decision, especially when fully qualified TCM doctors are of short supply.) At this moment, there is no “special drug” in Western medicine to cure Coronavirus, but to resort to cortisone, antibiotics, interferon, anti-malaria, anti-flu drugs to maintain the lives of patients and passively wait and hope that the patients’ bodies can find their own way to turn the situation around. Even then, the Western medicine drugs mentioned above all potentially have significant side effects and sequelae. Patients with severe cases might be able to get out of the deathbed but most likely live with some permanent damages to the body. Dr. Zhong, China’s chief Western medicine expert on the Coronavirus epidemic, also warned that the current path of developing the “special drug” would most likely lead to severe sequelae to the patients. Given that is the case, why don’t we put much more effort to fully develop the TCM treatment of viral infection, not just for Coronavirus but also for future viruses which will bound to happen in the future?

(Translator’s note: As China is getting good control of the virus spread and gradually recovers from this epidemic, the knowledge learned will be invaluable to the rest of the world. Europe and the United States are on the exponential rise of new cases as of the writing on 3/14/2020. Various models predict that in the US alone Coronavirus infections can reach millions, as discussed in the Opinion Column of New York Times, “How Much Worse the Coronavirus Could Get, in Charts” by Nicholas Kristof and Stuart A. Thompson, March 13, 2020. China should continue to put efforts to develop TCM diagnostic and treatment methodology so that millions of people in the rest of the world can be helped and saved. TCM is not just for science, it is for humanity.)

（http://andylee.pro/wp/?p=7729）
#當張仲景遇上史丹佛

【全球氣象產業的發展前景 32 高投報率的效益】

有網友說，『如果你們不要攻擊氣象局，我就支持民間氣象產業….』，也建議您可以把過去這三十多篇的文章看清楚，這是在討論資料、制度的議題，因為這在氣象界內部已經討論了十多年，始終石沉大海。我盡量努力心平氣和的來談這議題，但每個人角度不同，如果您覺得我是在攻擊，也請見諒~

為何會想要用每天一個議題方式出來，因為農曆年前一個會議中，交通部氣象局葉局長一席話『台灣沒有氣象產業…』 『你們反映規費法的問題，這不是我們權責….』 點醒我們過去期待政府能正視資料經濟的期待，原來過去的會談都是有目的的保護交通部氣象局，有計畫的打壓民間發展。

例如上一篇我們曾想要過雷達的第一級 (Level 1)資料，曾遇過這幾類問題
1. 一開始回答說雷達資料涉及國家安全，不能提供
2. 這資料很複雜，你們會用嗎?
3. 這不是我們單位可以負責的，建議你找更高層來談
4. 這資料非常龐大，你們有能力處理嗎?
5. 這資料如果給你了，到時國外也會來拿，到時候你們都不是對手，我們是在保護你們
6. 這資料傳輸很大，需要特別的專線，數據量很大，你說的時間落差還是在
等到我們發現其他單位也在拿，原來這是不公平的對待，也逐步釐清後，問題就來了，這資料高達七百多萬，是全世界氣象資料中最貴的，這對我們提倡開放資料、資料經濟的台灣願景，無疑是一個很弔詭的環節。

如果大家對氣象產業不理解，或是我以偏概全，圖利自己，歡迎大家可以看看國際上的數字，可看附錄，許多國家或商業公司都有類似的報告，相信交通部有很多專家及科研計畫，說氣象沒有產業，這完全不是事實。

我先整理如下，後續大家可以看接下來的文章
全球氣象產業
1. 每投資一元在天氣/氣候預測上，在全球大約有三元到十元的投資報酬率，這是在減少天災的損失上的估算。
2. 全球天氣/氣候預測服務市場在2015年有 560億美金，2011年才410億，四年內成長36%，其中54%是天氣服務，46%是氣候服務，在這560億美金當中，150億是政府氣象單位的預算支出(約27%)
3. 美國氣象局一年預算約10億美金，採用開放資料的政策，創造美國一年70億美金的氣象產業市場。
4. 全球民間天氣預報市場預計將從2019年的23億美元增長到2025年的33億美元，從2019年到2025年的年增長率為5.7％。

後續我會陸續整理出來

【文獻來源】
Georgeson, L., Maslin, M., and M. Poessinow. 2017. Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services. Science Advances. 3(5):1-9. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/5/e1602632.full. Accessed 26 September 2017.

Qadir, U. (2017). Toward Sustainable Climate Information Services in Sub-Saharan Africa: A literature review. Developed as part of the USAID project Assessing Sustainability and Effectiveness of Climate Information Services in Africa (Sustainable CIS Project).

https://www.kmatrix.co/. Competitive Market Intelligence making a difference. Accessed November 23, 2017 27

Georgeson, L., Maslin, M., and M. Poessinow. 2017. Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services. Science Advances. 3(5):1-9. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/5/e1602632.full. Accessed 26 September 2017. 28 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/5/e1602632.full

Georgeson, L., Maslin, M., and M. Poessinow. 2017. Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services. Science Advances. 3(5):1-9. http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/5/e1602632.full. Accessed 26 September 2017.

WMO. (2015). Valuing Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological Services. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/amp/pwsp/documents/wmo_1153_en.pdf.

Clements J., and A. Ray. 2013. The Value of Climate Services Across Economic and Public Sectors: A Review Of Relevant Literature. United States Agency for International Development, Washington DC. http://www.climate-services.org/wpcontent/uploads/2016/04/CCRD-Climate-Services-Value-Report_FINAL.pdf

Hallegatte, S., A Cost Effective Solution to Reduce Disaster Losses in Developing Countries: Hydro-Meteorological Services, Early Warning, and Evacuation (May 1, 2012). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 6058. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2051341

【全球氣象產業的發展前景 總整理】
https://www.facebook.com/170435726987/posts/10158593491761988/?d=n
#globalweatherenterprise
#台灣真的可以發展氣象產業
#交通部氣象局局長說台灣沒有氣象產業
#會以連載方式讓大家了解全球氣象產業
彭啟明

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I would like to introduce new management science and technology before the 4 plans that everyone will have equal opportunity to contribute in community and play a role in decision making with direct democracy in order to regulate perceived disequilibrium in human civilization. New management science of direct democracy will not put cat and fish together that is the only way we can keep financial discipline and transparency. Direct democracy is not campaign in every 4 years. It is new life in ICT century. The new management system can sell itself due to the benefit is huge that will create New Renaissance for peace, health and prosperity.

We are so blessed and so lucky to live in ICT era that systematically reform is a matter of finger tips. Human thought and information can transfer so fast and so massive that can perform direct democracy easily with ICT platform. It can start with housing and facility management industry that global residents in housing communities can perform direct democracy to form a global trend of new politics and new management science. We can create equal opportunity in different agendas with ICT platform that will liberate global productivity and lift efficiency to create new revenue $30 trillion dollars in New Renaissance.

Most communities, cities and nations will enjoy the new infrastructure of cloud conference in ICT platform for new management system that can stop human ordeals in politics, finance, education, ecology and economy. New generation will live in prosperity, peace and health with new management science. China reformed in 1980’s with global synergy platform to lift economy tremendously. New Renaissance with new management science will reform global nations in economy, education, politics, ecology and other different agendas that we can cross barrier of time and space to explore new worlds. If we adopt the new management system of direct democracy, we shall live peacefully in New Renaissance that people will not snipe at police any more.

Your institution can lead global think tanks, communities, governments, and enterprises in New Renaissance. It not only will reform management system but also will increase 40% productivity globally that equal to lift $30 trillion dollars revenue annual plus to save resources wasted in mismanagement. Direct democracy is green management for global sustainable development.

ICT sponsors will donate $30 million dollars to the institution annual that can promote New Renaissance and create $3 trillion dollars revenue annual for ICT industry. ICT can fabricate new platform of cloud conference for direct democracy that can apply in housing and facility management industry globally before it can lift to city level, national level and UN level eventually.

A housing community is a small nation. Nation will change when communities change. Residents in housing communities will enjoy surfing new management system to solve unrest and create pleasant environment. New Renaissance will start in housing communities and lift to higher levels accordingly. It will be a project that sells itself and build 200 ICT platforms globally. Each platform will be at the size of Facebook.

Since we can trade stocks directly in NASDAQ, why can’t we use civil power directly in cloud government and cloud conference? Initially we can operate both cloud conference and reality conference synchronously like Dow Jones operating both cloud trading and floor trading. NASDAQ has never operated floor trading since establishment. Literally politics is like the stock exchange. We can trade without brokers in stock exchange as well as in politics.

Everyone has access to information that information can spread massively and quickly without limit of time and space. Global development is the task of how to apply with synergy ICT platform for human activities especially for the public affairs that can lift efficiency, productivity and revenue with new management system to achieve prosperity, peace and health globally.

I am glad to learn we pursue the same goal and we might choose the same approach when we find polluted air in China and India can spread to Japan, America and Europe at the speed of hundreds miles per hour along jet stream in 6 miles height. Particles in polluted air can damage human health as well as catalyze extreme weather globally. We can benefit or hurt consequently with all events happening on the Earth.

What if African will pollute air and water seriously like China and India have done? How soon the Earth will become uninhabitable? Our knowledge and experience convince us the global is a holistic life body. Development should prevent from damaging the holistic life body. We had to protect the holistic life body by all means with new ethics and new code of conduct for sustainable development. The best way to achieve the goal is to operate new management system on ICT platform globally that all people can contribute and play a role in decision making. Everyone can watch, report and maintain the health of the holistic life body in every corner of the Earth without limit of time and space.

New management system and ICT platforms rely on consistent electric power supply. We need to develop green energy as electric power industry is major factor of pollution and global warming. Most energy in nuclear power plant has been applied to heat up sea water and vaporize into the sky that can rise up temperature seriously. Green energy and green management undoubtedly are strong pillars to support sustainable development for the holistic life body.

With continuous high growth rate, Africa has become new engine to pull global economy. Walmart is landing in Lagos. Major manufacturing facilities moved to Africa like Japan Panasonic. Chinese companies have operated in Nigeria since 1980’s. I met chiefs of CCECC in 1982 when they started water bore hole contracts in Lagos and looked for railroads contracts.

Plan 1 is to construct river flow power plants combining irrigation canals in Nigeria with water flushing out of existing hydro generators to rotate river mills for additional 30,000 MW that equals to 20 nuclear power plants. It can irrigate farms for 30 million tons rice annual to improve food shortage and inconsistent power supply not mentioning to create huge employment. Plan 1 is a project of one stone for many birds.

A river generator can be installed in every 7 meters along irrigation canal with minimum water flow at 5 tons per second. 1 KM canal with slight slope at 0.3% can install 140 units of river flow generators at 15 KVA through 150 KVA each depending on water flow. 1 KM canal can equip 2 MW through 20 MW that 1,000 KM canal can install 2,000 MW through 20,000 MW.

In 1920’s Japanese engineer Yoichi Hatta built Wusanto Reservoir in Taiwan with irrigation canal 7,400 Km for rice farm of 145,000 hectares that could reap 3 times annual. Land, water and good weather are available in Nigeria that can develop farms of millions hectares with irrigation canals and river power plants. One hectare farm will produce rice 18 tons for 3 reaps annual.

Plan 1 can change Nigeria and Africa and benefit the global ecologically. USA and China compete in Nigeria and Africa very hard. China promoted railroads construction with loan at $6 billion dollars. IMF offered direct loan to governors at $3.2 billion dollars. I heard GE tried to involve in the railroads construction. Japan plans to invest $30 billion dollars in Africa. Employment, sufficient food and consistent power supply can support Nigeria to lead Africa nations to join the New Renaissance for global peace and sustainable development.

Dangote is an aggressive entrepreneur who might join us for Plan 1. He ranks 25 richest people and is nephew of my friend, Alh. Abdul Dantata. When I was in Nigeria, Abdul gave me his driver Alh. Uba who used to buy ice bars for young Aliko Dangote. Dongote cement can benefit since Plan 1 will need huge cement for river power plants and irrigation canal.

Dangote will donate generously if we can initiate Plan 1 with him and Nigeria president Buhari who is lack of convincing economy policy that a hot pot of food on fire becomes popular target of thieves. Buhari can use Nigerian agric bond to attract investors and complete Plan 1 if he can apply leverage properly. Global donors will support green energy industry in Nigeria if Buhari can show his determination. Good plan, advanced management and talent people will create hope and confidence for a nation and the world.

Plan 1 will attract $1 billion dollars donation and create annual revenue $10 trillion dollars in Africa. The core value of Plan 1 is by all means to prevent Africa from pollution and global warming like China and India. Eventually Plan 1 will attract investors to build river flow power plants with 700,000 MW globally that equal to 400 nuclear power plants. Irrigation canal will boom agric and housing communities synchronously that can develop new cities to attract investors and migrants for new economy in Nigeria and Africa.

European nations will collaborate to construct river power plants with irrigation canal for agric in Africa and in the Middle East to improve economy, ecology and peace. It can reduce refugees flooding into Europe like fleeces. Hopefully it will stop casualty drowned in the Mediterranean Sea.

Big waves attract great surfers. Great surfers can't attract big waves. Good leader can see the trend and keep right direction for delicate surf. I can see 4 trends are going to surge into big waves where we can approach for delicate surfs. New Renaissance will surge with ICT that can promote new platforms for communities, governments and public companies globally. The institution will rank as the 1st think tank in the world if leaders can find new trends of big waves and lead all teams to surf delicately.

Plan 2 is to reform China peacefully with 2 tactics that will turn China into a positive power for regional peace as well as free market for global enterprises. China market is still inaccessible to Facebook, media industry and many other sectors who are looking for tickets to China. They might join us if they learn our plan can benefit them hugely. Apple and Google have been tumbling in China from time to time. Donors from ICT industry and different sectors will donate $3 billion dollars for Plan 2 that will create $10 trillion dollars revenue annual.

Plan 2-1 is to reform China peacefully with platform of cloud conference in housing community management with direct democracy. It will support liberal leadership to emerge in China and open gate wider for global enterprises duly. How can we reform China into democracy when there is only one communist party? No matter one party or no party, residents in housing communities can use cloud conference to perform direct democracy that will create internal climate for liberal leadership.

Plan 2-2 is to mobilize people in global nations to carry out judiciary project in local courts and subvert the apex policy of China i.e. to occupy Taiwan. China has been lying that Taiwan is part of China and there is only one China. Most nations have tolerated Chinese lies for some benefit but lies can’t last forever when global people feel it is enough. Lie can’t never become the truth.

There are extreme groups against China in most nations. They can have suits in courts to win the verdict that Taiwan is not part of China and there are two China in the world. There is nothing wrong to have two China since there are two Congo and two Korea in UN. Nigeria is the only nation considers two China and accept Taiwan to register in the name of the Republic of China in Nigeria. The verdict surely will discredit leadership in Beijing and bring stronger impact than the South China Sea Arbitration has done. It will split leadership in Beijing and support emergence of liberal leadership.

Justice of speech is as important as freedom of speech. It is new trend in ICT century that human can solve global conflicts with judiciary power and public opinions instead of wars. Verdict of Plan 2-2 will become huge external power to shake dictatorship in Beijing that can collaborate with internal pressure from direct democracy in housing communities of Plan 2-1. Plan 2 will catalyze emergence of liberal leadership and lead China to join New Renaissance.

Plan 2 will reform China and North Korea with direct democracy and judiciary power peacefully that will attract $3 billion donation and create $10 trillion dollars revenue annual. Taiwan people can donate $1 billion dollars referring to Taiwan people donated $252 million dollars in 2011 for Japan tsunami.