今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.
在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?
而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?
其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.
而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.
Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)
Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.
下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.
也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.
Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff
No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT
Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX
One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.
Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?
Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.
Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.
Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.
I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.
Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.
The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.
These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.
I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.
Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.
Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.
I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.
I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.
You did.
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【為什麼「別擔心錢了,去旅行吧」是個蠢到不行的建議
Why “Don’t Worry About Money, Just Travel” Is the Worst Advice of All Time】
(Sources: Rob@flickr, girllostinthecity.com)
(Time.com, Jul. 1, 2015) —by Chelsea Fagan
I have an internet acquaintance that I’ve been following on social media for a little over two years now, an all-around nice, smart girl who blogs and does odd jobs and has recently decided to go back get a Master’s. In Europe. For a degree that, by all reasonable accounts, is probably not going to lead to a great job. And she knows this, I think, because she talks about it as “an opportunity to learn and expand her mind,” more than any sort of preparation for a future career. Which is fine, but the truth of the matter is that she is able to enjoy such freedom — to be a wanderer of sorts who enjoys travel, study for the sake of study, and long conversations over good dinners — because she comes from a good bit of wealth and, if not subsidized entirely, never has to worry about her safety net. She won that particular bit of genetic lottery, and it’s useless to begrudge her the freedom that fate bestowed on her.
我有個網路上認識兩年多的女性友人,是個在社群網站上人緣頗佳且聰明的女孩,只做些打工、寫寫部落格過日子,最近又決定回去修個碩士學位。那是個位於歐洲,且是個無論怎麼合理的解釋也肯定對未來找到好工作一事永遠派不上用場的學位。而且我想這位女網友也知之甚詳,因為她描述起這學位時,只提到說「想有個機會擴展心靈」,而非是要用來準備將來就業所需。乍看之下這女孩的一切令人稱羨,但上述中她之所以能夠享有這樣的自由,像是漫無目的的出國旅行、為了念書而念書、花費很多的時間討論美味晚餐…,這些全因她來自有錢的家庭。這女孩就像是中了基因的樂透一樣,她的自由自在是投對胎所致的,所以一般人對其毋需羨慕也毋需妒恨。
But it is useful — important, even — to begrudge her the attitude that comes with it, one that is all too prevalent amongst young people who do not have to worry about the foundations of their future financial security: This idea that you must travel, as some sort of moral imperative, without worrying about something as trivial as “money.” The girl in question posts superficially inspiring quotes on her lush photos, about dropping everything and running away, or quitting that job you hate to start a new life somewhere new, or soaking up the beauty of the world while you are young and untethered enough to do so. It’s aspirational porn, which serves the dual purpose of tantalizing the viewer with a life they cannot have, while making them feel like some sort of failure for not being able to have it.
但真正有用甚至可說必須的是,去妒羨像這個女孩背後代表的這種生活態度。在美國就有一大群奉行這樣教條式信念卻又衣食無憂的年輕人,他們認為:趁年輕就要出國旅行、不必擔心金錢這種小事。這女孩在自己飲食作樂的照片上面,寫滿了膚淺的勵志小語貼文,像是:「拋下所有束縛,逃脫一切吧!」;「辭去妳討厭的工作,去另一個新天地展開新的人生吧!」;「趁著妳依舊年輕且無拘無束的時候,就該沉浸在世界的美麗之中」。這種意識型態活脫就是「夢想生活的情慾賁張」,且在其背後隱藏著雙重意涵,一是要去誘惑、折磨那些過不起這種生活的人們,而其二就是要讓他們自責受挫,認為自己為何不能像那些人一樣「想走就走」。
It’s a way for the upper classes to pat themselves on the back for being able to do something that, quite literally, anyone with money can buy. Traveling for the sake of travel is not an achievement, nor is it guaranteed to make anyone a more cultured, nuanced person. (Some of the most dreadful, entitled tourists are the same people who can afford to visit three new countries each year.) But someone who has had the extreme privilege (yes, privilege) of getting out there and traveling extensively while young is not any better, wiser, or more worthy than the person who has stayed home to work multiple jobs to get the hope of one day landing a job that the traveler will assume is a given. It is entirely a game of money and access, and acting as though “worrying about money” on the part of the person with less is some sort of trivial hangup only adds profound insult to injury.
「為了旅行而旅行」只不過就是上層階級彼此自我標榜的行為,不過他們卻沒有意識到這只不過是另一項「只要有錢就能做到」的事情。出國旅行本身稱不上是成就,也不保證會讓你變成更有文化、更與眾不同的人(有些最駭人、最有聲名的遊客也就是那種每年都有辦法去三個新國家觀光的族群);同樣的,趁年輕出國旅行並不表示你更有智慧、更成功、更高人一等,那只代表你有錢有優勢、有資源這樣做而已。那些非常努力、身兼數職才能得到那些經常出國旅行的人覺得理所當然屬於他們的工作的那些人,就真的較低下嗎?出國旅行完全就只是個金錢跟門路的遊戲,卻有人把實質上深深困擾多數人的經濟問題,講成「瑣碎不重要的小事」,這只會加深社會的貧富傷口。
I was able to travel, and even though I paid for my life abroad with my own work, it was still a result of a healthy amount of privilege. I was from a middle-class family who I did not need to support or help financially, I knew that I could always slink back to their couch if things didn’t work out, and I had managed to accrue a bit of savings while living at home for the few months before I left. There are millions of people who have none of these things, and even if they wanted to pay for travel on their own, would simply not be able to because of the responsibility or poverty they lived with. For even my modest ability to see the world, I am eternally grateful.
我曾經出國旅行,但即使我是自食其力的工作賺旅費出遊,我知道這一切終究還是一種特權,這都是因為我來自一個中產階級的家庭。我不需要在金錢上去資助或協助家裡,就算狀況再怎麼壞,我至少都有爸媽家的沙發可以回去依靠,況且我外出旅遊前我也能藉由住在家裡擠個月來利用利息累積身上的存款。可是這世界上有成千上萬的人沒有我所具備的上述條件,而且即便是他們想要自費出國「見見世面」,也會因為他們與生俱來的責任感或窮困而裹足不前。因此對於能夠出去見識這個世界的小小能力,我一直心懷感激。
And what’s more, I understand (perhaps even better after having traveled a good amount) that nothing about your ability or inability to travel means anything about you as a person. Some people are simply saddled with more responsibilities and commitments, and less disposable income, whether from birth or not. And someone needing to stay at a job they may not love because they have a family to take care of, or college to pay for, or basic financial independence to achieve, does not mean that they don’t have the same desire to learn and grow as someone who travels. They simply do not have the same options, and are learning and growing in their own way, in the context of the life they have. They are learning what it means to work hard, to delay gratification, and to better yourself in slow, small ways. This may not be a backpacking trip around Eastern Europe, but it would be hard to argue that it builds any less character.
更甚者,我了解到(也許是在經歷了好一些旅行之後變得更加了解),一個人有沒有出國旅行的經驗,根本就跟你是什麼樣的人沒有關連。不論是否天生如此,有些人就是肩負著更多的責任和承諾,以及較少能自由分配的收入。而且也是有人因為要養家活口、或是還學貸、還是要盡早達到經濟獨立,所以選擇留在自己可能不喜愛的工作崗位上,不去旅行。這並不表示他們想要學習跟成長的渴望輸給那些常旅行的人。這只不過是他們沒有相同的選擇,而改用他們所擁有的生命型態自我學習與成長而已。他們學習的課題是努力工作的意義,學習先苦後甘,慢慢地,以細微的方式讓自己變更好。這聽起來固然不像東歐背包行一樣酷炫,但是無法否認這樣做也能形塑同等的人格特質。
Encouraging that person to “not worry about money,” or to “drop everything and follow their dreams,” demonstrates only a profound misunderstanding about what “worrying” actually means. What the condescending traveler means by “not worrying” is “not making it a priority, or giving it too much weight in your life,” because on some level they imagine you are choosing an extra dollar over an all-important Experience. But the “worrying” that is actually going on is the knowledge that you have no choice but to make money your priority, because if you don’t earn it — or decide to spend thousands of it on a trip to Southeast Asia to find yourself — you could easily be out on the streets. Implying that this is in any way a one-or-the-other choice for millions of Americans is as naive as it is degrading.
在鼓勵別人「別擔心錢」或是「拋開一切,來去追夢」的行為背後,表現出來的是一種對於為了金錢「擔心」的深刻誤解。那種居高臨下的旅遊鼓吹者說出「別擔心」的同時,意味著「別把錢排在第一位,或是在生活中別把錢看得太重」,因為在他們某種程度的想像裡,你是因為想多省一些錢而放棄了重要的人生體驗。但是對於「真正在擔心錢」的人來說,這其實代表著他們別無選擇而必須把錢擺在第一位,因為要是他們真的狠下心灑錢來去東南亞進行一趟尋找自我之旅,接下來就很有機會流落街頭。把這種真正的「擔心」拿來當成一種這樣也好那樣也好的個人價值觀選擇,不僅是想法太過天真而且還相當地侮辱人。
Everyone needs to forge their own path to financial independence and freedom. And perhaps you are lucky enough that your path involves a lot of wandering around, taking your time, and trying a bunch of new things — because you know that security will be waiting for you at the end of the rainbow. That’s fine, and there is no need to feel guilt or shame over your privilege, if only because it’s unproductive and helps no one. But to encourage people to follow your very rare path, because you feel it is the only way to spiritual enlightenment or meaning, makes you an asshole. It makes you the person who posts vapid “inspirational” quotes that only apply to a tiny percent of the population who already has all the basics covered. And God forbid anyone who needs the money actually does follow that terrible advice, they won’t be like you, traipsing around South America and trying degrees for fun. They will, after their travels are over, be much worse off than when they started. And no souvenir keychain is going to make that reality sting any less.
每個人都需要打造自己通往經濟獨立與自由的前程。也許有些幸運的人們是可以在自己的路途上繞來繞去,好整以暇,還是嘗試些新玩意兒,因為他們知道在彩虹盡頭處也是一片康莊祥和的安全道路在等待著。反正沒有關係,擁有優勢不必感到有罪惡感或深以為恥,就算是這種優勢被利用成並無生產力也沒有對他人產生助益。但是鼓勵別人也走上他們這條稀罕至極的道路,只因為他們認為這是唯一可以通往精神啟蒙、發現人生意義的路,那就真的混帳加三級了。這種心態讓他們淪落成那種發表乏味枯燥勵志小語的人,只能跟一群本來就已經夠有錢的人相互取暖。再說上帝有知也會禁止那些真正需要擔心錢的人聽從這些糟糕的建議,他們可不比有錢的傢伙們,能去漫步遊蕩全南美洲找著各式各樣的樂子。他們在旅程的最後會發現,從另一個地方回來之後,一切變得比出發時還更糟。道時再多的紀念鑰匙圈都拯救不了現實椎心的殘酷。
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