🌻Docusign(DOCU), Crowdstrike(CRWD)財報結果
上週這兩家公司發表財報了.
這兩天看了一下他們的財報結果. Again, 兩家的表現都很好, 但發現分析師給DOCU的調價(往上)幅度比較多, 就好奇研究了一下SaaS公司是怎麼被估值的. 有興趣的話可以看看(從中學習到很多. 非常推薦一讀):
https://makingsenseofusastocks.blogspot.com/2021/09/blog-post.html
(By the way, 分析師對CRWD的價格調幅沒那麼大, 主因是成長趨緩了. 而DOCU的free cash flow佔營收比, 以及顧客黏著力在這季創了新高, 是讓分析師按讚的幾個原因).
關於CRWD: "The Street is already modeling revenue growth deceleration in 2022 to 36%, down from 60% expected in 2021, which on its own might prove a hurdle for a stock already trading at a high multiple," said Bank of America analyst Tal Liani in a report.
分析師對於DOCU的評價:
• 11位buy; 給的價格分別是: $310, $320 (x2), $330 (x2), $340 (x2), $345, $350, $350, $389
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst continues to view them as a best in class way to play digital transformation trends with strong growth, cash flow and profitability, and a strong competitive position. Power said DocuSign remains one of his top long-term compounding growth ideas.
o Citi: While slightly shy of the double-digit billings beat in recent quarters, DocuSign still delivered a solid 8% beat to Q2 billings, which grew 47% year-over-year, Radke tells investors in a research note.
o Evercore ISI: he calls "another strong quarter." While some may have wanted to see more aggressive Q3 billings guidance, he believes estimates "continue to leave room for upside," Materne said.
o JMP Securities: While revenue growth decelerated to 50% from 58% in Q1, the company is the clear leader in electronic signature and the broader system of agreement having crossed over 1M customers with a $2B run rate this quarter, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that he sees lots of room for growth as DocuSign targets a $50B total addressable market.
o Needham: The analyst commented, "Docusign reported another strong quarter in 2QF22 with typical DOCU upside to revenue and profitability. Sales metrics and growth decelerated Q/Q, as we expected against a massive pandemic quarter, but at a much slower rate than we believe much of the Street was anticipating. 65k net new customers was lower than the 70k - 90 range of CY20 but was still more than 2x greater than any pre-pandemic quarter, highlighting a strong end-market driving 47% billings growth against a strong comp. Commentary on incremental Agreement Cloud demand was positive, suggesting an additional growth tailwind combined with solid international can further aid 2HF22. Although DOCU shares could be lower near-term due to weak 2H OpMg guidance, we think this guidance is conservative, as the recent OM was greater than the pre-pandemic level even with tough comps."
o RBC Capital: The quarter highlighted the sustainability of the company's tailwinds post-pandemic as most of its underlying metrics such as billings and net revenue retention were solid, the analyst tells investors in a research note, adding that the traction with CLM and Notary was also "impressive".
分析師對於CRWD的評價:
• 12位buy; 給的價格分別是: $300, $310 (x2), $313, $315 (x2) , $305, $320, $325, $330 (x2), $340
• 1位給hold: $280 (from $220 by J.P. Morgan(same))
• 給Buy的分析師的評語:
o Baird: The analyst believes the company has significant room for growth with core modules, opportunities with Humio and in cloud workload security, among others, should help drive a continuation of strong growth over a long time horizon.
o BTIG: The company's "strong" Q2 results "cleared every hurdle", even though the buy-side benchmarks may have been slightly higher, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Powell adds that Crowdstrike is clearly gaining share in its core endpoint security target market at a rapid pace and gaining traction with new products across multiple categories.
o Canaccord: The analyst said the stock is down from its recent highs, and he thinks the re-rating creates a more favorable entry point for longer-oriented investors for a foundational security name. He views Crowdstrike as a long-term secular winner in security due to its native cloud platform advantage versus closely held peers in endpoint security combined with platform expansion into tangential segments to capture greater share of security budgets.
o Goldman Sachs: CrowdStrike last night delivered "another beat and raise quarter as the company benefited from another quarter of elevated demand," Essex said. But it traded lower following net new annual recurring revenue growth guidance that was slightly less than investors had hoped for. Essex, nonetheless, said the quarter demonstrated CrowdStrike's "ability to continue to go down market efficiently."
o JMP Securities: The analyst notes the company's Q2 annualized recurring revenue of $1.34B topping his estimate of $1.30B, with "sustained" 70% ARR and revenue growth along with margin upside seen as key highlights for the quarter. Suppiger adds that the metrics reflect Crowdstrike's "strong execution and robust demand environment".
o Mizuho: "very good" fiscal Q2 results. The annual recurring revenue growth of 70% year-over-year "was strong and still nicely surpassed" the Street's 65%-66% estimate, Moskowitz tells investors in a research note. He believes "strong execution can propel" Crowdstrike's stock higher.
o Piper Sandler: The company's metrics "outperformed across the board" in Q2 with 70% annual recurring revenue and revenue growth and record net new customer adds in the quarter, Owens tells investors in a research note.
o RBC Capital: Hedberg adds that CrowdStrike's record pipeline entering Q3 should continue to fuel the company's "land-and-expand" momentum.
o Stifel: Q2 results that he said "exceeded consensus estimates across all major financial metrics." He continues to believe that Crowdstrike's growth opportunity "remains in the early days" despite the company's scale given continued share capture within its core endpoint security market and incremental module adoption on the Falcon Platform, Reback tells investors.
o UBS: the company reported "pretty good" Q2 results against high expectations.
🌻趨勢: 跨境電商 Cross-border commerce
Morgan Stanley:
From our perspective, we think many are underestimating what the cross-border eCommerce demand could ultimately be, once key friction points like FX rates, tax and duties, shipping, language, etc are smoothed—all issues that Global-E directly addresses.
Cross-border ecommerce brings new, high-yield volume: We think elevated levels of cross-border ecommerce (ex-travel) is a structural shift thathas yet to be fully contemplated in MA (and V)'s long-term forecasts. MA's cross-border CNP ex-travel volume was 69% above 2019's level in 2Q and 63% higher in 1Q. Strength reflects both broader ecommerce adoption plus globalization of commerce, as marketplaces and services that reduce cross-border friction (such as those from GLBE) make international online ordering more readily adopted. Early data at V suggests greater cross-border ecommerce spend is persisting even in areas with pre-pandemic levels of international travel. Cross-border transactions also come at a higher yield, making us more optimistic that the trend can bring incremental long-term growth to the networks.
產業的潮流是有連貫性的. 疫情讓電商更發達後, 接下來應該就是加速電商跨境了. 跨境的話, 有很多問題需要解決(稅率, 語言, etc.) 這就需要有公司來做整合的動作. 這種跨境, 也可以想像是omnichannel的一種呈現.
Harley Finkelstein (President of Shopify): "I mean I think commerce in 2021 is cross-border."
🌻SPAC熱潮退卻,初創市值蒸發750億美元
"SPAC熱潮已經退卻。分析顯示,在2月中旬以前完成合併的137家SPAC的總市值已經蒸發25%,市值回落幅度上個月一度超過1,000億美元。"
"像貝萊德(BlackRock Inc., BLK)和富達投資(Fidelity Investments Inc.)這類企業管理的基金,以及許多對沖基金、養老金管理公司和其他一些投資者,都在SPAC的回落中遭受了衝擊,他們在去年年底開始的熱潮中競相投資SPAC。其中許多基金由於在價格還很低的時候就早早入場,所以現在仍坐擁可觀收益。事實上,SPAC市值仍有約2,500億美元,高於一年前的約1,000億美元,反映出這期間股價上漲和新公司上市的影響。
但即便如此,今年年初令人炫目的回報還是讓許多後來者做了接盤俠,扎堆投資所謂穩賺不賠的領域,其永恆的風險可見一斑。在過去的幾個月裡,一些投資者眼睜睜看著帳面財富縮水。"
"股價下跌會在SPAC領域形成惡性循環,因為投資者有權在併購交易前從空白支票公司撤資。一旦SPAC跌破發行價,投資者就更有可能這樣做,而許多SPAC的股價現在正處於這樣的水平。目前,在尚未宣布併購交易的空白支票公司中,超過95%的公司股價低於發行價。
投資者的大規模撤資會讓已經上市的空白支票公司手上的現金大幅減少,讓其更難實現業務目標,並可能加劇股價跌勢。"
https://on.wsj.com/3n6JznC
🌻BNPL (buy now pay later)
But most BNPL providers including Affirm, Klarna and Afterpay have been losing money despite breakneck revenue growth as they invest heavily in marketing to win share. Sweden-based Klarna’s credit losses more than doubled in the second quarter. Affirm has projected adjusted operating losses of $50m-$55m for the fiscal year that ended June 30.
The path to profitability for many of these companies was to achieve massive scale, analysts said.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca201a37-a16d-4223-b123-04d38350a972
Pictures: 一葉知秋; from EarningsWhispers
同時也有4部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過1萬的網紅angelbirdbb,也在其Youtube影片中提到,“Ana Luisa is the perfect treat and gift, and they are currently running an exclusive Valentine’s day sale? Get 15% off all products: ?????? https://w...
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they them分別 在 CheckCheckCin Facebook 的最讚貼文
【吃棗有益】新鮮紅棗就像迷你蘋果的模樣
⭐棗子也叫維他命C果
⭐如身體有偏熱症狀不宜食用
#星期四食材
認識棗子家族
中藥食材常用到各種棗子,包括紅棗、南棗、黑棗、蜜棗,中醫醫籍上都稱為大棗,你知道它們的分別嗎?棗子是棗樹的果實,呈長圓形,未成熟時黃綠色,成熟後褐紅色,可新鮮食用或者製成蜜餞、果乾。大棗性溫,有益氣補血、健脾和胃的功效;而棗子的製法不同,功效上就有差異,適合不同體質人士食用:
紅棗 — 把成熟的鮮棗烘至皮軟後再曬乾而成;有補氣、養血、安神作用,有助面色紅潤、手腳暖和,適合氣虛、血虛體質人士服用。
南棗 — 把成熟的鮮棗以熱水煮過然後曬乾,再以木柴燻過,能滋陰補血,適合陰虛、血虛體質人士食用。
黑棗 — 又名烏棗,把成熟的鮮棗以熱水煮過、烘乾再燻製而成,有滋補肝腎、潤燥生津的功效,比紅棗較為滋補,適合陰虛、血虛體質人士食用。
蜜棗 — 把大青棗周身割一次,使容易吸糖,經白糖煮後曬乾,能生津潤燥,適合各種體質人士服用。
三棗茶
功效:補血養顏、潤髮烏髮、預防指甲折斷,改善面色偏白等血虛症狀。
材料:紅棗4枚、南棗2枚、蜜棗1枚
做法:全部材料洗淨切片去核,放入保溫瓶,以熱開水略沖洗一遍,再注入熱開水焗10分鐘即可。此茶可反覆沖泡至味淡,一星期連續飲用3-4天為一個療程。
注意:有口苦、口乾、口瘡、暗瘡等偏熱症狀人士不宜飲用。
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Getting to know the dates family
In Chinese medicine, there are many different kinds of dates- red dates, south jujube, black dates, and candied dates. According to the Chinese Medicine literature, they are all called dates. Do you know the difference between them?
Dates are fruits from the jujube trees and are oblong in shape. They are yellow and green in color when the fruits are young and dark brownish red when ripe. Dates are edible when they are fresh and can also be turned into dried or candied fruits.
Dates are warm in nature, can nourish the qi, replenish the blood, and strengthen the spleen and stomach. Dates processed in different ways would have different benefits. This is to cater to the needs of individuals with various body constitutions.
Red dates - bake fresh dates until skin is soft and leave to dry. Replenishes qi and blood and calms the mind, helps to maintain healthy complexion and warm limbs. Suitable for those with qi deficiency and blood asthenia body types.
South jujubes - Cook fresh dates in hot water and leave to dry, then smoke with wood. Nourishes yin and replenishes blood. Suitable for those with yang deficiency and blood asthenia body types.
Black dates - dates that have been smoked after being boiled in hot water. They can nourish the liver and kidney, moisten the body, and induce salivation. They have more nourishing properties than the red dates and are suitable for individuals who are yin- and blood-deficient.
Candied dates - cut unripe dates multiple times and cook with white sugar, then leave to dry. Promotes fluid production and relieves dryness. Suitable for all body types.
Red date tea with south jujubes and candied date
Effects: nourishes blood, improves skin and hair quality and prevents brittle nails, improves blood deficiency symptoms such as pale complexion.
Ingredients: 4 red dates, 2 south jujubes, 2 candied date
Preparation: Rinse all ingredients, core and cut into slices. Place into thermos, rinse with hot water once. Then add in hot water again and steep for 10 minutes. You can re-brew until its flavor weakens. For best results, drink consecutively for 3-4 days a week as a treatment.
Note: not suitable for those with heat-related symptoms such as bitter mouth, dry mouth, canker sore, pimples.
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#男 #女 #我畏冷 #我疲憊 #我枯燥 #氣虛 #血虛 #陰虛
they them分別 在 元毓 Facebook 的最佳貼文
【停滯型通膨即將來臨嗎?】
我認為我們即將在一兩年內經歷全球大部分地區的停滯型通膨(stagflation)。我認為投資的方向也會因此微調。
1. 濫發通貨的後果比我們想像中嚴重
我在《後疫情時代中國面對的經濟環境》一文中預測的通貨膨脹現象,已經從資本市場、房地產市場逐漸拓展到美國一般消費市場。
從媒體報導或社群網站上的照片記錄看來,普遍性的消費商品價格上漲已然發生。(見圖)
如同諾貝爾經濟學獎得主F. A. Hayek曾以蜂蜜形容貨幣的流動,在注入貨幣的過程,會造成某部分價格上漲,然後才慢慢拓展出去。而以當今Fed的貨幣干預手段,我們可以看到美國國債利率的下跌與股票、衍生性金融商品市場的價格上漲為常見的起點。而最後,亦如另一位諾貝爾獎得主M. Friedman所言:「通貨膨脹始終是貨幣現象」。
我相信讀者也在許多財經媒體上看到有關通貨膨脹的警告或討論了。
經濟學家Joseph Carson指出,美國在1970年代的CPI統計是包含房地產價格,因此1979年CPI成長11.3%中有相當比例是因為當年房地產價格激增。但現今的統計卻排除了房地產價格。而新冠疫情之後美國房地產價格因濫印貨幣而飆漲,故即便美國官方公佈的過去12個月CPI增長5.4%,但如果採取1970年代的標準計入房地產價格因素,則實際CPI漲幅應該是兩位數!
這也表示,Fed聲稱通貨膨脹只是暫時且不嚴重的論點,很可能是基於刻意被低估的統計方法。另一個值得一提的,是Fed自疫情封城後每個月都買入$400億美元房貸為基礎的金融證券(mortgage-backed securities),但我們也都清楚2008年美國金融危機的一大肇因就是美國聯邦政府轄下兩個專門替房貸信用擔保的房利美、房地美機構(Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac),其相當於政府干預市場的行為扭曲並蒙蔽了市場對真實風險的判斷。
更值得警醒的是如顧問公司MBS Highway指出美國Fed實質買入的房貸基礎證券金額恐怕高達$1000億美元每月,硬生生人為壓低房貸利率0.25~0.35%。
綜合來看,Fed刻意濫發通貨不但眾所周知,很可能實際規模超越我們理解。而美國政府的CPI統計卻因排除房地產與股票等資產,無法正確地理解真實通膨現狀。
2. 政府引發通膨並非萬靈丹 -- 菲利普曲線早已失效
美國上班族實質週薪相較去年同期收入下降了1.7%,製造業員工更是下降了2.2%。
然而根據總體經濟學的菲利普曲線與相關理論認為,通貨膨脹引發的實質薪資下降理論上應該可以提高就業。可事實上我們看到的是五月份高達900萬份職位仍空懸找不到勞工。根據華爾街日報報導,六月份失業率5.9%竟仍高於新冠疫情前的3.5%。
為何如此?早幾年我已經多次撰文談過,菲利普曲線只是基於紐西蘭某一小短時期的統計數字,從經濟理論上就存在內在矛盾與瑕疵,根本不是個普遍可適用的通論,頂多算是個「特例」。因此我們常看到經濟學家質疑此曲線失效實屬正常。
從制度經濟學角度觀察,貨幣政策的確可以引發通貨膨脹造成實質薪資下降,但工作機會與適任員工二者的媒合本身並非不存在交易費用,這意味著並非實質薪資下降馬上需求曲線丟進來,交易量(即就業人數)立即增大。
美國Fed的達拉斯分行4月份報告就指出:30.9%因疫情失業的勞工並未重新回到他們原本的舊工作,此數字還高過去年7月的19.8%。
根據美國人力網站ZipRecruiter近日研究發現幾個目前美國就業市場現象:
a. 本來在娛樂或餐飲旅館行業的就業人士,被疫情的強迫停業嚇怕了,高達70%欲轉行,但多數卻因為行業專業不同難以順利轉換跑道。
b. 過去幾個月來新開出的職缺與失業人數竟然同步上升。
c. 因為疫情許多人跑去城市郊區甚至鄉村避難,結果開出職缺的區域與求職者所在區域出現明顯分離。
d. 同樣因為疫情封城管制造成的後果,紐約市區星巴克的今年五月來店人數相較兩年前同期下降65%,工作機會也隨之發生改變。
e. 每週$400美元的失業補助讓許多失業者不急於找工作。溫蒂漢堡、必勝客、Applebee's、Taco Bell等知名連鎖餐廳提供額外的獎金補貼也依然找不到員工。
而這一些因交易費用增加產生的就業市場成交量下降,從制度經濟學角度來看難以依靠貨幣政策改善,而是必須透過放寬就業市場法規來協助降低交易費用。可是我們看到卻是迷信政府管制的新一任Biden政府。
3. Biden總統的行政命令
今年7月初美國總統Biden簽署了一系列行政命令,新增了橫跨農業、健康產業、物流、交通、科技產業、勞工...等各種管制,聲稱可以透過政府干預帶來產業競爭狀態的改善與消費者/勞工權益。
我們可以從Biden總統的發言看到他對基礎經濟學概念的嚴重無知與缺乏:“Capitalism without competition isn’t capitalism. It’s exploitation,” ... “Without healthy competition, big players can change and charge whatever they want, and treat you however they want. And for too many Americans that means accepting a bad deal for things that you can’t go without.”
經濟學認為競爭無處不在,而不同的侷限條件會導致競爭的態樣改變。某些侷限條件下的競爭會有較高的租值消散,某些則較少。純粹市價競爭的自由市場是理論上完全無租值消散的一種競爭態樣。
因此,政府管制往往帶來的只是更多租值消散與尋租空間。誠如雷根總統說過:「政府本身就是問題,而不是解答。」
所以我們不難發現試圖以更多管制措施、更多政府干預來「使市場健康競爭」的Biden政府,必然是一場徒勞無功且弊病叢生的白工。只是所增加的交易費用,依然是由美國人民來承擔,這對通貨膨脹烏雲蓋頂的底層百姓而言,恐怕雪上加霜。
還記得中美貿易戰多篇文章我均指出,從正確的經濟學邏輯角度來看,時任Trump政府對中國的各種關稅或非關稅貿易壁壘,最終的成本承擔者只會是美國消費者。
我們看到前任Fed主席,現任美國財政部部長Janet L. Yellen也於7月中旬接受紐約時報採訪時鬆口承認Trump時代對中國的關稅障礙結果是在傷害美國消費者。("Tariffs are taxes on consumers. In some cases it seems to me what we did hurt American consumers, ...")
這樣的錯誤,美國政府百年來犯了無數次。例如我們曾談過Milton Friedman 與George Stigler 兩位諾貝爾經濟學獎得主共同撰寫的知名論文「Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem」以1906年甫大地震後225,000人無家可歸的舊金山市為研究對象,發現當時無力管制的市政府放任市場自由定價,結果是多數人很快找到新家,即便是十分貧窮者,也有與之對應的廉價房屋提供(1906 advertisement “Six-room house and bath, with 2 additional rooms in basement having fire-places, nicely furnished; fine piano; … $45.")
但到了1946年,舊金山因人口增長而推出租金管制,明明房屋短缺嚴重性遠不如1906年大地震後的慘狀,但卻發生多數人租不到房子的窘境!
根據二位經濟學大神研究,1906年每一個想租屋的人,大約有10間房子供選擇;但租金管制後的1946年,每375個求租客對應10間房子供給。
更嚴重的實例還有1970年代石油危機期間,美國政府出台的各種價格與非價格管制干預措施的結果,反而更抬高國內石化產品價格,加劇石化產品短缺現象,不但各地加油站大排長龍,不少妙齡女子以身體為代價與加油站老闆員工上床以取得汽油的新聞不絕於耳。
因此我推斷,美國如不放寬對中國的制裁,只會加重自身通膨惡果,同時惡化真實失業狀況。
一方面,管制會加重人民負擔提高交易費用這點已經敘明不再重複;另一方面,中國是美國過去二十年瘋狂印鈔卻未引發嚴重通貨膨脹現象的最大助力。
這點不僅我這樣看,如經濟學名家張五常教授、前任美國聯準會主席Alan Greenspan於2005年美國國會聽證會發言,乃至於經濟學人雜誌2004年10月份的特別報告「Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates」也做如是想,且不說還有許多經濟學家也持一樣的觀點。
誠如Greenspan於前述聽證會上發言指出,對中國貿易制裁結果必然導致美國民生物價上漲與人民生活品質受損,但卻無任何經濟學理與客觀證據支撐政客謬論 -- 制裁中國並無法改善美國就業率。
可即便Greenspan早在2005年國會上已言者諄諄,顯然後來十幾年美國政客們是聽者藐藐。因為政客利益往往不等同於人民利益,這是民主國家最大的侷限條件。
回過頭看,Biden政府上台以來,不但沒有放寬Trump時代對中國的諸多基於污衊指控而實施的貿易制裁,甚至有變本加厲的態勢。但如此舉措對美國自身其實極為不利。行文至此我們已經可以確定實質經濟成長停滯與通貨膨脹雙擊的「停滯性通膨」將來臨。
4. 歐美國家與日本普遍高負債結果只能以提高稅率或利率為結果。
所謂的「現代貨幣理論(MMT)」根本是一套無視成本的胡扯,違背了「凡有選擇必有代價」的經濟學最基礎侷限。各國瘋狂印鈔當然最後會出現通貨膨脹,不負責任的政府只能以提高稅率或提高利率為代價。
只是每個國家面對的侷限條件不同,使得代價發生的時程或「閥值」有所不同。
通貨膨脹現象說到底是個「貨幣增長率對上經濟成長率」的過程 -- 當貨幣增長率追不上實質經濟成長率,通貨收縮會發生;當貨幣增長率超過實質經濟成長率,則通貨膨脹會發生。注意,我這裡指的「實質經濟成長率」是「真實」的經濟成長,而不是GDP、凱因斯經濟學那套錯誤的觀念。這部分我以前就為文批評過,有興趣的讀者請自行查找。
故,同樣因應新冠疫情而寬鬆貨幣的俄羅斯,其面對的國際經貿環境不比美國日本,自然很快就承受不住通膨壓力於近日宣布一口氣調升利率100個基點至6.5%。(見圖)
美國聯邦政府2021年政府負債$28.5兆美元,是GDP的128.31%。僅利息支出達$4025億美元,佔年度預算5.3%,佔聯邦稅金收入9.8%。如果美國無法成功抑制通貨膨脹,則隨之而來的利率飆升將造成美國財政風險。畢竟市場利率始終是由「無風險利率+風險貼水+預期通貨膨脹率」組成。
我們可以注意到1980年代初期,美國國債淨利息支出增加的時期,其相對應的10年國債利率也大幅攀升。
同樣地,在高通膨率的1980年代初期(藍線),市場利率也曾一度飆升至近20%(黑色虛線)。(見圖)
再看看目前世界主要經濟體的債務狀況(見圖)
新冠疫情之後,世界主要國家的債務風險只增不減。
英國經濟學家,前英格蘭銀行與英國貨幣政策顧問Charles Goodhart警告:「中國帶給全世界的經濟紅利若因其人口結構老化而逐漸消失,則世界必將面對通貨膨脹衝擊。」("...as aging populations in China and other nations spend more of their savings, average interest rates will rise higher than governments have bargained for...China’s greatest contribution to global growth is now past. This great demographic reversal will lead to a return of inflation.”)
通膨來襲加上實質生產力成長受損的停滯性通膨夾擊下,歐洲與日本等主要經濟體不得不面對更棘手的債務危機。這些國家未來政治與社會的動盪將會是常見的現象。
美元20多年來快速通貨成長下而無明顯國內通膨的一個重要因素,在於其做為世界最主要國際貿易交易結算貨幣的角色,使得世界整體經濟成長大於等於美元通貨成長時,通膨率不易上升。就如Greenspan 2005年在美國國會作證所闡釋,中國作為1990年代以來美國成長最快且體量非常大的貿易夥伴,中國對美元的需求本身就保證了美元的購買力,同時物美價廉的中國製造產品也大幅壓低了美國國內物價增長率。
上個世代扮演此角色的是日本,因此我們也看到日本與中國分別是目前美國國債最大持有國。(Foreign governments owned US$7.053 trillion of US debt in November, including China's US$1.063 trillion, and Japan's US$1.260 trillion, US Treasury data showed. )
然後在此次疫情重創且血虧的奧運會之後,其逐漸衰退的整體生產力與相當惡化的債務狀況,我懷疑日本還有多少殘存力量支撐美元。
因此我們不難理解為何美國新任Biden政府上台後汲汲營營地尋求與中國高層會面。
結論
人民幣國際化的推進與中美經貿脫鉤二者都會帶來美元實質購買力的衰退與美國通膨惡化。因此美國政府如要避免財政危機,必須做到二件事:a. 解除貿易壁壘,尤其是針對中國的貿易制裁;b. 確保中國繼續願意大額購買美國債券以及使用美元為主要國際貿易結算貨幣。
中國數字人民幣推展與歐洲也開始積極發展數字貨幣的背後,都是直接對美元在國際貿易、金融體系的競爭。一帶一路若越成功也越能協助人民幣國際化。
這些都是美國非常不樂見。因此我們可以看到美國不斷在造謠污衊中國的一帶一路與科技後門監聽等事項,就算明明被抓包踢爆監聽全世界的是美國自己。
然而如同我多次解釋過,美式民主制度下政客的利益與人民利益往往不一致。當鼓動對中仇視有利於競選時,美國政客很難選擇與中國和平、更深度交流的道路;當增加更多政府管制干預與有利於尋租時,政客也是毫不猶豫地如此選擇。所以我們會在未來相當長時間看到精神分裂的美國 -- 又不希望中國在世界經濟影響力增加而欲打壓,但自己又不能真的因打壓中國與之脫鉤。
這種人格分裂狀態恐怕未來十幾年都會是美國政壇主旋律。
因此站在投資人的角度,我選擇把財產壓在美國利率終將上漲這一大方向上。
文章連結:
https://tinyurl.com/58hauwkf
參考資料:
WSJ, "How Much Are Prices Up? Here’s One Family’s Day-to-Day Expenses." July 9, 2021
WSJ, "Job Openings Are at Record Highs. Why Aren’t Unemployed Americans Filling Them?" July 9, 2021
WSJ, "Governments World-Wide Gorge on Record Debt, Testing New Limits" July 12, 2021
范一飞, "关于数字人民币M0定位的政策含义分析" 2020年09月15日
元毓, "宏觀經濟學的尷尬—菲利普曲線死了嗎?" May 8, 2018
NYT, "Yellen Says China Trade Deal Has ‘Hurt American Consumers’" July 16, 2021
WSJ, "Biden Targets Big Business in Sweeping Executive Order to Spur Competition" July 9, 2021
WSJ, "The 2021 Olympics Are Turning Into a $20 Billion Bust for Japan" July 20, 2021
Bank for International Settlement, "CBDCs: an opportunity for the monetary system" BIS Annual Economic Report | 23 June 2021
Barron's, "The Housing Market Is on Fire. The Fed Is Stoking the Flames." July 23, 2021
Barron's, "Disco Inferno: The U.S. Could Be Headed Back to ’70s-Style Stagflation" July 16, 2021
Reuters, "Russia raises key rate to 6.5% in sharpest move since 2014" July 23, 2021
Milton Friedman & George Stigler, "Roofs or Ceilings? The Current Housing Problem" September 1946
Alan Greenspan, "FRB: Testimony" June 23, 2005
The Economist, "Unnaturally low -- China is helping to keep down global interest rates" Oct 2nd 2004
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聲明:所有視頻都是原創未經允許視頻不得轉載,部分連結為返利連結,對購買價格没有任何影響
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they them分別 在 賢賢的奇異世界 Youtube 的最佳解答
但是這個東西沒有讓他覺得自滿,但是由於他懂得
怎樣去跟這些名畫的交易商談價錢還有抬高價錢,
因此大部分的名畫都可以買到很好的價錢,
那大家都知道,我們想起畢加索,就會想起那些抽象畫,
而這些抽象畫才是他真正賺大錢的名畫。
在那個時候,從來沒有人做過這些超現實主義的畫,就是這種抽像畫
可以說是在創作裡面的一片藍海,但是要讓歐洲的畫商
還有收藏品的收藏家,接受那麽前衛的作品,
需要非常好的營銷還有編排,而他非常善於社交還有非常有商業頭腦,
成功的把這些非常前衛的抽象畫賣到了歐洲的貴族的手中,
大家看看這一幅畫,這幅叫【讀書】,畫的就是他的情人Walter,
在2011年倫敦拍賣裏面,成功以2520萬英鎊拍賣給一名俄羅斯的商人。
而且他是打電話來訂的。
畢加索一生裏面創作最少有37000副畫,在他死後留下來兩億美金的財產,
以通膨來計算,到現在為止大概價值100-200億美金,
當中還有幾萬副畫,還有一些別墅和雕像留給了他的後代。
那麼問題來了
為何梵高和畢加索,兩個都是畫畫的天才,
但是兩者的遭遇為什麼會不一樣呢?那梵高究竟做少的什麼東西呢?
1. 不善於社交還有公關,他鄙視那些販賣藝術品的商人,
覺得他們是在侮辱了藝術,就好像劉青雲講的一樣:
‘做人公關不好,食屎啦,沒公關,屎都沒得食’
2. 包裝和銷售
產品每一個都需要經過包裝,還有有一個銷售的技巧方能賣出
這些東西都是梵高沒有做到的
3. 情緒管理
就是因為他的之前愛情的問題。。。
啊~不是愛情啦~單戀的那些問題,所有他在情緒上沒有管理好
4.這個是最重要,他就是低估了自己藝術品的價值。
那麼我們把這些東西放在自己的身上,我們有時會覺得自己的價值不高,
覺得自己不值那個價錢,我應該只適合這些工作,或者是領這一些薪水。
那我來跟大家講一個例子,一罐在超市裡面的可樂,
和一罐在馬爾代夫度假村裡面的可樂是不是一樣的呢?
可樂的本質其實沒有改變過,在馬爾代夫的可樂其實還是可樂,
並不會特別的好喝,
但是在超市的一罐賣Rm2,馬爾代夫的一罐買USD8,(不知道,應該更貴吧)
整整相差了RM30,那麼究竟是哪裡的分別呢?
重點在於如何讓顧客覺得值得,而不是你自己覺得值得
只要讓顧客覺得值得,那麼他用多少錢來買都可以
就好像梵高的畫一樣,他一生裡面只買過一副畫,
而且還是他親戚幫他買的,賣了400,
但是他死後他的畫在拍賣會上,最高的那一個
是7。。。8250多萬美金,不懂有幾千幾萬倍?
那我們來想啦~為什麼買畫的人覺得7150萬美金值得呢?
那除了它是獨一無二之外,畫背後的淒慘故事,
這幅畫帶給他的感覺等等
也有可能是因為這幅畫的投資價值,還有背後的那些故事
那所有他才買了這幅畫。
所以銷售就是要讓顧客覺得你的價錢值得,而不是你自己覺得值得。
讓顧客覺得值得,除了就是一些基本的條件
例如是品質啊~或者是公司的名氣等等,更重要的就是情緒,
80%的購買都是感性(情緒)而做出決定的,尤其是在這麼貴的東西身上,
理性的原因根本不可能成為他購買的關鍵。
那麼情緒購買,大概可以分為5種:
1. 視覺效果
那視覺效果,除了就是產品的包裝,產品的一些廣告之外
那個銷售人員(的外表)也是很重要的,
那如果彭于晏和八兩金一起賣同一個產品給你,
那你自己覺得是選誰呢?那答案就是很明顯的
不然賣跑車的商家幹嘛聘請一大堆的模特兒來賣跑車呢?
2. Pride ,就是身份和地位的象徵
如果你能讓顧客,在買了你的產品過後,
他的身份和地位會比以前不一樣,或者變得與眾不同
儘管那不一定會成為事實
但是那種感覺會讓他們,得到嚮往的生活。
就好像賣屋子的人一樣,他為什麼要花那麼多錢,
去做好那個示範屋呢?
原因就是讓顧客覺得他們以後的家園就會是這樣的,
那就從此過著幸福快樂的生活,那當然啦~不一定會達成
但你有讓他有那種感覺是最重要的
還有一些就是Limited edition, 就是獨一無二的那些東西
也是非常好賣的
3. 貪婪
讓顧客覺得賺到的一個假象,也是利用他貪婪的其中一種
例如好像那種promotion啊!買一送一啊~
那種其實是用這種因素的
4. 喜歡和偏愛,這個不需要解釋,喜歡就是喜歡
如果他是喜歡你的產品,喜歡你的人,或者是喜歡那個品牌
對於那個品牌有一定的偏愛
那麼根本不需考慮到其他理性的因素。
5. 恐懼
恐懼也是其中一個購買的因素,例如好像有限期的Promotion,
或者是你錯過了這個就會賣更貴啊~類似好像那種Promotion
好像保險的銷售其實也是利用恐懼這一個點,來做銷售的
那麼大家的人生想做梵高還是畢加索呢?由你自己來決定!
最後送上畢加索的一句話,這句話其實是蠻有意思的
我們都知道藝術並不是真相,它只是尋找真相的一個謊言,
所以藝術家需要會講解還有說服,讓大家明白你的謊言
那好啦!今天的影片就到這裡啦,
最近我的工作其實是很忙
那今天我就來嘗試一下激勵和自我成長的一個主題,
那當然啦~奇異世界的影片還是照樣會做的
那如果大家想看什麼主題的話~,歡迎大家留言給我讓我知道吧!
那好啦~我們下個奇異世界見,Bye Bye
Vincent
Starry, starry night (繁星点点的夜晚)
Paint your palette blue and gray (为你的调色盘涂上蓝与灰)
Look out on a summer's day (你在那夏日向外远眺)
With eyes that know the darkness in my soul (用你那双能洞察人性灵魂的双眼)
Shadows on the hills (暗影铺满群山)
Sketch the trees and the daffodils (树木与水仙花点缀其间)
Catch the breeze and the winter chills (捕捉着微风与寒冷的冬天)
In colors on the snowy linen land (用那雪原斑驳的色彩)
Now I understand (如今我才明白)
What you tried to say to me (你想对我倾诉些什么)
How you suffered for your sanity (你为自己的清醒承受了多少折磨)
How you tried to set them free (你多么努力想让自己全然超脱)
They would not listen they did not know how (他们却不予理睬, 那时他们不知该如何面对)
Perhaps they'll listen now (也许现在他们会知道)
Starry, starry night (繁星点点的夜晚)
Flaming flowers that brightly blaze (火红的花朵明艳耀眼)
Swirling clouds in violet haze (紫幕轻垂,云舒云卷)
Reflecting Vincent's eyes of China blue (映照在文森特湛蓝的双眼)
Colors changing hue (色彩变化万千)
Morning fields of amber grain (清晨里琥珀色的田野)
Weathered faces lined in pain (张张饱经风霜与苦痛的脸)
Are soothed beneath the artist's loving hands (在艺术家的画笔下显得栩栩如生)
Now I understand (如今我才明白)
What you tried to say to me (你想对我倾诉些什么)
How you suffered for your sanity(你为自己的清醒承受了多少折磨)
How you tried to set them free (你多么努力想让自己全然超脱)
They would not listen they did not know how (他们却不予理睬, 那时他们不知该如何面对)
Perhaps they'll listen now (也许现在他们会知道)
For they could not love you (他们根本不会在乎你)
But still your love was true (但你的爱却依然真实存在)
And when no hope was left in sight (当最后一点希望都一去不返)
On that starry, starry night (在那繁星点点的夜晚)
You took your life as lovers often do (你愤然结束自己的生命,如绝望的恋人们一样)
But I could have told you Vincent (但文森特,我要告诉你)
This world was never meant for one as(像你这般美好的灵魂)
beautiful as you (本不该来这肮脏的世间)
Starry, starry night (繁星点点的夜晚)
Portraits hung in empty halls (空旷的大厅里画作高悬)
Frameless heads on nameless walls (无名的墙上无框的肖像)
With eyes that watch the world and can't forget (用注视整个世界的双眼,把一切铭记在心)
Like the strangers that you've met (就像你曾遇见的匆匆过客)
The ragged men in ragged clothes (褴褛的人们穿着破衣烂衫)
A silver thorn on a bloody rose (就像血红玫瑰上的银刺)
Lie crushed and broken on the virgin snow (零落成泥,摧折寸断,散落于皑皑白雪)
Now I think I know (如今我才明白)
What you tried to say to me (你想对我倾诉些什么)
How you suffered for your sanity (你为自己的清醒承受了多少折磨)
How you tried to set them free (你多么努力想让自己全然超脱)
They would not listen they're not listening still (他们却不予去傾聽,以後也還是不會)
Perhaps they never will (可能。。。。他們永遠也不會)
they them分別 在 傅長膨AnimaJinx Youtube 的最讚貼文
↓點進網址找到"VOTE"按鈕投票!一人有三票唷↓
https://faceawards.nyxcosmetics.com.my/video/579
============================
如果喜歡我可以訂閱,或者到我的臉書粉專按讚給我支持~
If you like me pls subscribe, or Like my FB Page to suppport me :)
臉書專頁 Facebook Page : https://www.facebook.com/AnimaJinx
我是男生, 但是女聲,
喜歡感恩, 不喜慢走~
如果你在我的歌聲找到溫暖,力量,
那是對我最大的讚美!
謝謝:)
I'm a boy with girl's voices,
thanks for like, haters bye~
if you found strength and courage within my voice,
that is the biggest compliment to me! Thank you :)
=============================
從前有兩個王,分別掌管日與夜,他們總是合不來,每當吵架都會造成人民巨大的災難。
有一個強大又善良的女術士,為了解救人民的災難,她狠下心,詛咒了兩個王,讓他們永遠陷入沉睡,並奪取了他們的力量。
女巫同時擁有了日與夜的力量,但是因為她使用不正當的方法得到了力量,她無法成為王,她成為了掌管時間的半魔神,隱居在深山裡。她犧牲了自己的自由換取人民的安全,從此人民擁有平均的白天和夜晚,不再受苦。
Once upon a time, there were two kings. One was in charge of the light of day, while the other was in charge of the dark of night. Unfortunately, they could not get along with each other. The kings were constantly fighting with each other, so much so that they brought great disasters upon their people.
But then, a kind and powerful enchantress stepped in to save the world from the disasters. She was left with no choice but to cast powerful spells on the kings. The kings fell into deep sleep. While they were sleeping, the enchantress took the kings’ powers from them.
Although she possessed the powers of day and night, there was no way for her to wield them, for she had gotten the powers without the kings’ permission. Therefore, she would never become a queen. Nevertheless, she was transformed into half-demon half-goddess and had also gained the power to control time. She concealed herself in the deep mountains, sacrificing her freedom for the safety of the people. Ever since then, there was a balance between day and night and there were no more suffering.
#NYXCosmeticsMY
#FaceAwardsMY
#HermoMY
#RedKenMY
#FreshkonMY
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#ClarisonicMY
上期影片:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y55uIGlfRS4
=============================
解釋區:
剪輯軟體:Adobe Premier Pro CS6
BGM使用:
Fight or Flight
Theme for Villains
Gods of Victory
(Sponsor by Audio Network Music)
https://www..com/user/AudioNetworkMusic/featured
Majestic Hills
Majestic Hills by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100423
Artist: http://incompetech.com/
they them分別 在 島嶼筆記- [中性/無性別代詞]... | Facebook 的推薦與評價
較為常見、或說重複率較高的是they/them和ze/hir[註]。 ... 不同的拼法及不同格的組合,以下三個連結裡分別有三組不同的表格,我覺得好複雜哈哈哈。 ... <看更多>