關於 u.s. gdp growth by year ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

今天, 應該是最炫最酷的一家公司, Robinhood, 上市的一天. 它獲利了嗎? 我想沒有多少投資人會care. 最關心的, 應該是它的營收成長率, 還有股價.

在我們一直追逐科技成長股, 被他們的高營收成長率, 潛在的高報酬昏眩的時候, 會不會忘記他們醜得要命的財務報表?

而在今年, 大家追逐的這些趨勢股表現不佳的時候, 是不是也給了我們一些省思?

其實美股中, 還有很多財務報表漂亮, 但聽起來一點也不有趣(甚至很無聊)的公司, 但他們股價穩定, 長期下來, 也給了投資人很大的回報. 像之前介紹過的POOL, 過去幾年也是平均一年翻一倍的漲幅.

而在IPO中, 也有這類的好公司.

Carrier Global(CARR), 2020年4月上市的IPO, 算是工業類股, 漲了快5倍. 有在獲利. (開利冷氣應該有聽過?就是這家公司)

Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO), 民生消費股, 也有獲利, 2020年10月上市的IPO, 目前也漲了3倍.

下面這篇文章挺好. 與大家分享. 就像文章作者所提的, 龜兔賽跑, 穩(漲)的烏龜, 不一定會輸.

也祝福大家找到&培養自己的能力圈, 穩穩獲利.

Jim Cramer: The Biggest Thing That Happened Thursday Was the Boring Stuff

No, it wasn't Robinhood or the mega-cap tech companies, it was names we depend on like Carrier Global.
By JIM CRAMER Jul 29, 2021 | 03:38 PM EDT

Stocks quotes in this article: HOOD, FB, PYPL, CARR, RTX, NUE, AGCO, ZM, ALGN, AAPL, EBAY, AMD, XLNX

One of the most glorious things I have seen involving the stock market in ages happened today.

Was it Vlad Tenev ringing the opening bell for his breakthrough, disruptive Robinhood (HOOD) , representing 22 million mostly young new investors? Was it the free-for-all decline in the stock of the "F" in FAANG, Facebook (FB) ? Or the clobbering that Paypal (PYPL) took after what looked to be a good quarter?

Nah. I was bumping into Dave Gitlin, CEO of Carrier Global (CARR) , and his charming daughter, a college student at the University of Wisconsin. They were calmly waiting for me to finish "Squawk on the Street" to say, "Hi," and I couldn't be more thrilled. Because unlike the much ballyhooed Robinhood deal, which seems like a bust, Carrier Global came public back in April 2020 at $12 and today, after tremendous earnings, not sales, but earnings, it made an all-time high at $53, after reporting a terrific number with tremendous HVAC sales, up 31%, and an earnings surprise of 55 cents vs. the 30 cents that Wall Street was expecting.

Carrier, which was spun off when United Technologies merged with Raytheon (RTX) had some tailwinds, like the need to have clean air inside, because of the pandemic and clear air outside because office buildings are responsible for 40% of carbon emissions. But the huge upside surprise and the gigantic buyback belonged to Dave and his team and I that's what I told his daughter. I made sure she knew how proud she should be about how this man made so much money for people. Twelve to 53 in 15 months time is the name of the game.

Look, I am not trying to take away from anything that Robinhood and its co-founder and CEO Vlad Tenev have created. Far from it. They have created billions for themselves and are now letting people participate in their great sales growth. You got a chance to pay a fortune per share and many Robinhoodies did, as tons of stock was allocated to the 22 million people who joined Robinhood, because of a bang up app that every young person seems to know.

I am simply saying that HVAC, yep heating, ventilation and air conditioning is one of the most boring businesses on earth and at times like today, with all of the hoopla of Robinhood it is easy to forget is how lots of money can be made being boring, and I like that. The most exciting thing that happened this year is Carrier helped provide refrigeration for vaccines. That's just fine with me.

Unlike Robinhood, Carrier hasn't brought anyone into the stock market. It's more laser-like focus on air conditioning once spun off from Raytheon means nothing to people. Just Wall Street gibberish. But you have probably walked by a Carrier machine thousands of times and never thought anything of it. Yet, you could have bought it for a song at six times earnings instead of 25 times sales.

The Carriers, with CEOs who pay themselves lavishly but perhaps not excessively, or the Nucor's (NUE) the steel company that's also well managed and sells at six times earnings, represent valuable properties, especially when the U.S. government is about to agree on a trillion dollar infrastructure bill and the country has more than 6% GDP. We don't know why they are re-opening trades or closing trades, delta-variant trades or building and bridge investments. Forgive me, though for comparing the company of Robinhood, with something that may stay special for a while vs. companies that get described as venerable, solid and built to last.

These companies are not rarities. You know people have to eat, right? You know that there would be famine without farming. So why not buy the stock of Agco (AGCO) , No. 2 farm equipment, which went from $40 to $130 in a year and a half without ever being expensive. Combines too boring? Again fine with me. Now that the masks are off -- or at least in some places, although Zoom (ZM) is still crushing it -- I, like many others, including my daughter, didn't like how her teeth looked even as, to me, they were perfect. Dentists tell you to get Align (ALGN) . I wanted them on "Mad Money" but the show was just too darned jammed. The stock's up the most in the S&P 500, with a product that, again, like the Purloined Letter, is right in front of you.

I love tech. Created the term FANG, added the "A" when it was clear that Apple (AAPL) had to take the acronymic stage between another "A" and an "N." I am proud that those who bet against me on Twitter, the legion, are betting against FAANG. I wrote obituaries for a goodly time in my career as a reporter but I never wrote as many as have been penned to talk about the group has already made the ultimate measure on behalf of shareholders.

Oh and it's not like I don't like tech or fin tech. I felt the slings and arrows of Facebook and PayPal today. Facebook's management once again lowered the boom on its future talking about real deceleration in growth. I thought it was too dire. PayPal's Dan Schulman talked about how the separation with its former partner, eBay (EBAY) gets done now and earnings will be hurt. This was one of the least revelatory surprises ever. I think both are practicing UPOD, Underpromising to Overdeliver, and, sure this time might be different, but it's sure been the way they have handled it in the past.

Far better to be in the straight out blow outs like Advance Micro (AMD) which had still one more banner day, this time because the company it is buying, the dowdy Xilinx (XLNX) , a sleepy semiconductor company, had tremendous earnings. The two together could be unassailable and even as AMD is now richly valued it is deservingly so.

I can't wait to hear Vlad Tenev's reflection on Robinhood's debut as a public company and about the novel offering that gave millions of shares to his clients. Vlad's not so much a rags to riches American story. He's a poor Bulgarian to insanely rich American because of his on ingenuity. That's a story with celebrating in itself.

I am simply pointing out that unlike Vlad, whom you would have had invested with when you weren't allowed or able to, Dave Gitlin sure didn't keep you out of the better bet, the stock of HVAC king Carrier.

You did.

整理得很好

【**川普做了哪些40年來其他總統沒做的事?**】中共就是這幾任包括柯林頓，小布希，歐巴馬給搞到為所欲為，不管川普是否連任，這4年能夠把中共搞到崩潰邊緣，他真的不簡單!

**這裡整理幾點，他做了那些前任總統沒做的事?**

**1. 讓反共成為美國共識:**
* 正式公開承認過去幾十年對中政策的錯誤，並將中國與中共分開，認定中共所領導的中國為「有別於民主」的獨裁國家，視其為「新威權主義」

**2. 讓反共成為民主自由國家共識:**
* 呼籲並整合西方國家，在民主自由與極權暴政之間只能選邊站，價值觀勝過經濟誘因
* 在這次疫情，願意第一個出來講真話，讓我們不用活在指鹿為馬的世界，指出就是因為中共隱匿疫情，造成全球染疫超過千萬，死亡超過50萬人，經濟停擺，損失無可計算，四億多全職工作消失不復返，生活模式改變
* 甚至，他點出了 [#宗教自由](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%AE%97%E6%95%99%E8%87%AA%E7%9…)，喚醒我們與中共的差別，西方民主國家不要忘記我們的價值觀，行善止惡的重要性

**3. 斷絕中共資金來源:**
* 進行貿易戰，提高關稅，迫使各國紛出走中國
* 提供優惠措施，輔導美企出走中國
* 嚴審中概股，逼迫中企會計公開透明，被迫在自由市場滅頂
* 限制經由香港的資金流動
* 對中國敏感科高科技出口禁令擴展到香港
* 下令美聯邦退休基金撤出中國，禁止用美國公務及老兵的退休基金去投資中國，使其製造武器來威脅美國人/士兵生命，過去幾任總統都是這樣做
* 美國八成假貨來自中港，不但危害智慧產權，消費者安全，更打擊市場公平性，川普對這些產品進行關稅制裁
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**4. 斷絕中共技術來源，消滅「中國製造2025」:**
* 抵制中興、華為及與中共及解放軍有關係的中企
* 阻斷中國晶片來源，沒了心臟，所有設備根本出不了中國
* 對美國涉及千人計劃的學者、科學家開鍘，並對源頭中國駐美使館進行公開譴責
* 反制習近平「軍民融合戰略」竊取高科技，針對中國公民和學生進行簽證禁令，禁止具任何解放軍背景公民、學生與研究人員的再入境，撤銷簽證，甚至逮捕，一解放軍軍官以學術研究到美，在機場被捕，面臨最高10年刑期
* 正在進行「年度國防授權法案 (NDAA)」的簽署: 公布竊取美商業機密、威脅國家安全或經濟健康的個人或公司名單，[#向竊取技術的企業實施懲罰](https://www.facebook.com/…/%E5%90%91%E7%AB%8A%E5%8F%96%E6%8…)，包括凍結他們在美國的資產，及禁止美國公民與這些公司和個人進行交易的制裁，還包括加強美國供應鏈的措施，以及擴大與中國導彈防禦系統整合的限制

**5. 5G:**
* 正式宣布華為國安威脅，目前世界已有多國正式宣布不用華為進行5G基礎建設，這對全世界各國國家安全極為重要，菲律賓即因電網用華為設備，中共可遠端停電菲律賓48小時
* 美憂中國監視及竊盜資料，海纜准通台灣，不准通香港

**6. 印太戰略**
* 美國對中國擴張問題，不再只是內容空泛的抱怨，反而是堅強的執行意志。從新加坡李顯龍公開表示，希望華府不要逼新加坡與東協在美、中兩國選邊，很明顯就是針對美國印太戰略在發言
* 美國正在亞太地區部署前所未見的軍力，目前美軍部署在亞太地區的兵力為37.5萬人，占美軍總兵力的28%，其中包括60%的海軍艦艇、55%的陸軍部隊，以及2/3的陸戰隊兵力
* 美國前總統歐巴馬8年任期中，在南海只執行4次航行自由行動，然而川普上任迄今四年已執行22次，是歐巴馬的11倍

**7. 台灣**
* 稱蔡英文為台灣總統，國務卿蓬佩奧公開稱讚台灣在民主自由的貢獻，並支持台灣加入WHO等國際組織
* 台灣被確認是美國印太戰略核心夥伴，公開邀請參加八月南海軍演
* 2016年共和黨首度將《六項保證》納入黨綱
* 《台北法案》: 內容涵蓋台灣對外關係、美台經貿關係和台灣參與國際組織，增強美台雙邊經貿關係，並要求美政府促進台灣國際參與
* 《2018年亞洲再保證倡議法》其中第209條款「對台灣之承諾」重申支持美國與台灣在政治、經濟及安全的合作，規定「美國總統應依來自中國之威脅而定期對台軍售」
* 《台灣旅行法》: 促進兩國高層交流
* 重啟台美FTA談判
* 美方加強參與台灣國艦國造
* 軍售台灣: 18枚MK-48 AT重型魚雷，66架F-16戰機，派里級巡防艦、AAV7兩棲突擊車、人攜刺針飛彈250枚、拖式2B型飛彈769枚、標槍飛彈及迅安系統後續支援，HARM反輻射飛彈50枚、聯合距外武器（JSOW）空對地飛彈56枚、MK48魚雷46枚、標準二型（SM-2）飛彈16枚、MK54輕型魚雷168枚、4艘紀德級驅逐艦AN /SLQ-32（V）3電戰系統性能提升、SRP偵蒐雷達後續維持、MK41垂直發射系統，C-130 運輸機、F-5 戰鬥機、經國號戰鬥機，M1A2T戰車、M88A2裝甲救濟車、M1070A1 重裝備運輸車、M1000 重裝備運輸板車、FIM-92刺針便攜式防空飛彈、122把M2重機槍、216把M240通用機槍
* 進行《台灣防衛法》的簽署: 確保美軍有能力保護台灣安全，包括評估採取有限核武來嚇阻中國

**8. 香港**
* 制裁傷害香港自治的中港官員，包括: 中共政治局常委，負責港澳事務的韓正，加速中共高層內部的分裂
* 通過《香港人權與民主法》，撤銷香港特別待遇，包括禁止出口軍民兩用技術到香港
* 著手撤銷香港在引渡條例、出口管制、旅遊及獨立關稅區地位等領域所享有的特殊待遇
* 進行《香港自治法》的簽署: 對破壞香港自治的中港官員，凍結其在美資產，禁止入境美國；潛在制裁對象還首度包括國際金融機構，可導致中港銀行無法與美國銀行交易、不能使用美元結算，以打擊中港方資金鏈

**9. 新疆**
* 2019年10月，美國宣布將28個打壓新疆穆斯林的中企列入黑名單
* 2020年5月，美國宣布將中國公安部法醫研究所和8家中企列入經濟黑名單，並將33個協助中國政府監控維族，或與中國解放軍及大規模殺傷性武器有關聯的企業、機構、個人列入黑名單
* 通過《2020 年維吾爾人權政策法案》，呼籲禁止在中國境內外對這些族群的任意拘留、酷刑和騷擾，將制裁監禁超過百萬穆斯林的中國官員，制裁手段包括：凍結中國有關官員的在美財產、拒絶他們入境、拒發或取消簽證

**10. 媒體:**
* 今年2月，美國已將新華社、中國環球電視網（CGTN）、中國國際廣播電台（CRI）、《中國日報》發行公司，以及《人民日報》發行商美國海天發展公司列為外國使團
* 今年3月，美國要求削減60位中國籍記者
* 今年4月，白宮史無前例地批評美國之音為中國政府做宣傳。新任執行長在6月初通過國會核准，原本貝內特（Amanda Bennet）在內多名美國之音高管宣佈辭職
* 今年5月，美國限制中國籍記者簽證90天
* 今年5月，川普與推特等社群媒體槓上，怒斥打壓言論自由
* 今年7月，新增4家中共官媒為外國使團，包括: 中央電視台（CCTV）、中國新聞社（中新社）、《人民日報》和《環球時報》，從此需向美國國務院提供在美員工的名單及他們在美租賃或持有的房地產清單

**11. 疫情前，2019年底的美國經濟表現**
* 失業率維持在 3.5%，創 1969 年以來新低
* 執政 3 年美股飆逾 50%，高居歷屆總統第一
* 招聘人數的增加和工資的上漲推動了消費者支出，消費者支出占美國經濟的三分之二以上
* 美國是2019年G7唯一經濟增速將超過2%的國家
* 至2019年12月，美國經濟已連續第126個月持續增長，是有記錄以來最長的經濟增長期
* 美國股市的總市值攀升至創紀錄，1.5倍於其GDP
* 強勁的美國經濟在2019年繼續吸引來自世界各地的投資，使美元匯率升至歷史新高

**12. 國際組織**
* 川普大聲譴責目前「過於以中國為中心」的國際機構，包括WHO等
* 以行動退出世衛及拒絕提供資金後，世衛終於在6月30日承認中國並非第一個告知疫情，也就是中共違反世界衛生條例，並沒有在24小時內告知世衛，也代表全球都有法源依據跟中共求償
* 川普政府的國家安全小組甚至在考慮建立一個全新的國際衛生組織，以使美國能擁有更大影響
* WTO秘書長突然在今年5月辭職
* 川普表示: 聯合國是一個過時的組織。暗示應成立一個以民主自由國家，有共同價值觀為前提的組織，並開始邀請各國參加G11

What did Trump do that the former presidents did not do?

1. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the United States:
* Formally and publicly acknowledged the mistakes of the China policy over the past few decades, separated China from CCP, and regarded China led by CCP as a dictatorship, different from democracy countries

2. Making Anti-CCP a consensus in the democratic and free nations:
* Appealed the democratic and free nations to stand together against CCP. Western countries is forced by CCP to choose side between persistence in freedom and acceptance of Beijing’s bully tactics, between value and economic incentives.
* In this epidemic, told us the fact that it’s because of the CCP’s deliberate concealment, more than 10 million people have been infected, more than 500,000 people have died, more than 400 million full-time jobs have disappeared, and our lifestyle is forced to be changed.
* Pointed out the importance of religious freedom and awakened us the differences between us and the CCP. CCP is a regime that oppresses her people’s religious freedom. Western democracies should not forget our insistence on freedom and beliefs

3. Cut off the sources of CCP funds:
* Carried out trade wars, raised tariffs, forced the companies and the investment to move out of China
* Provided preferential measures to assist US companies to move out of China
* Passed a bill that would prevent companies that refuse to open their books from listing on Wall Street. This move is aimed to "kick deceitful Chinese companies off US exchanges."
* Restrict the flow of funds through Hong Kong
* Directed federal pension fund to halt investments in Chinese stocks
* Imposed tariff sanctions on Chinese fake products
* Passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act to require the imposition of sanctions on foreign individuals and banks that participate in China’s oppression of Hong Kong

4. Cut off the sources of high-tech technology and knowledge acquired by CCP, and eliminate the possibility of Made in China 2025:
* Boycotted ZTE, Huawei, and the Chinese companies which are related to the CCP and the PLA
* Block CCP's access to acquire the high-end chips
* Arrested the scholars and scientists involved in the Thousand Talents Program, and publicly condemned the Chinese Embassy accused to lead this program in the US
* Ordered a ban on issuing visas to the Chinese people, students and researchers with PLA background, in order to prevent Xi Jinping's "military-civilian integration strategy" from stealing US high technology
* Signed "National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)": published a list of individuals or companies that steal US trade secrets, threaten national security or economic health; Penalize the companies that steal technology, including freezing their US assets; Prohibit U.S. citizens from trading with these companies and individuals...and so on.

5. 5G:
* Barred American firms from selling tech and supplies to huawei without first obtaining a license to do so and restricted companies like TSMC, a Taiwan-based firm, from exporting computer chipsets and other key components to Huawei.
* At the same time, warned the world that Huawei products will pose a risk to their national securities. Now, the tide is turning against Huawei, many countries have given up using Huawei equipments on their 5G instructure.
* According to CNN, because of using huawei equipments, the Philippines' power grid is under the full control of the Chinese government and could be shut off in time of conflict
* Denied Google to use a direct connection between the US and Hong Kong, due to a significant risk to security

6. Indo-Pacific Strategy
* The United States is no longer just complaining about the content of China's expansion, but rather a strong will to execute. Li Xianlong from Singapore stated publicly that he hopes that Washington will not force Singapore and ASEAN to choose sides in the United States and China.
* The United States is deploying unprecedented military power in the Asia-Pacific region. Currently, the US military has 375,000 troops deployed in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 28% of the total US military strength, including 60% of naval ships, 55% of the army, and around 66% Marine Forces
* During the eight-year term of the former President Obama, only carried out four freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea. However, Trump has carried out 22 times in the four years so far, which is 11 times that of Obama.

7. Taiwan
* Ignoring CCP’s intimidation, the secretary of State Pompeo publically and officially called Tsai Ing-wen the President of Taiwan. Also, praised Taiwan’s contribution to democracy and freedom, and supported Taiwan’s accession to WHO and other international organizations
* Publicly announced Taiwan is the core partner of the US-Indo-Pacific Plan, and openly invited Taiwan to participate in August Joint Navy Exercise in South China Sea
* Reiterated the "Six Guarantees" for Taiwan in 2016
* Signed "Taipei Act": It aims to increase the scope of US relations with Taiwan and encourage other nations and international organizations to strengthen their official and unofficial ties with this nation
* Signed "Asian Reassurance Initiative Act 2018" : It aims to support the close economic, political, and security relationship between Taiwan and the United States, to faithfully enforce all existing United States Government commitments to Taiwan, to counter efforts to change the status quo and to support peaceful resolution acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait, to conduct regular arms sales To Taiwan
* Signed "Taiwan Travel Law": It aims to encourage the travel of high level United States officials to Taiwan

8. Hong Kong
* In May 27, 2020, announced by the Secretary of State under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act that Hong Kong no longer enjoys sufficient autonomy in order to justify special treatment by the US
* In May 28, 2020, announced that the United States would initiate the process of revoking Hong Kong’s favorable treatment under US law
* In July 1st, 2020, passed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. It’s aimed to provide for mandatory sanctions against individuals, entities and financial institutions in response to China’s National Security Law for Hong Kong.

9. Xinjiang
* China has rounded up at least a million Uighurs in Xinjiang and imprisoned them in what it calls "re-education camps." An investigation found that most of the detainees were imprisoned due to their religious practices and culture, rather than extremist behavior.
* In October 2019, banned the import of products made by a firm in Xinjiang over its use of forced labor, also, blacklisted 28 Chinese entities for their role in the repression of Uighurs and issued visa restrictions on key Chinese officials
* In May 2020, added 33 companies to the United States’ economic blacklist of Chinese companies with ties to China’s military. The Commerce Department explained the banning of these companies, claiming that they are “complicit in human rights violations and abuses committed in China’s campaign of repression, mass arbitrary detention, forced labor and high-technology surveillance against Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.”
* In signed into a law an act authorizing sanctions against Chinese officials over the mass detention and surveillance of Uighur Muslims in China's western Xinjiang province. The new legislation is the most significant action by any country to punish China over its treatment of ethnic minorities.

10. Media:
* In February, require five Chinese state-run media organizations to register their personnel and property with the U.S. government, granting them a designation akin to diplomatic entities.The five organizations affected are Xinhua News Agency; China Global Television Network, previously known as CCTV; China Radio International; the parent company of China Daily newspaper; and the parent company of The People’s Daily newspaper. All five meet the definitions of "foreign missions" under the Foreign Missions Act, according to the State Department.
* In March, ordered several Chinese media organizations to dismiss 60 U.S.-based Chinese nationals
* In May, reduced the length of work visas for journalists from China employed by non-U.S. media will be to a maximum of 90 days. Chinese reporters can apply for extensions, each one also limited to 90 days
* In the end of May, after Trump's complained reminding, Twitter has flagged a tweet written in March by a Chinese government spokesman that the US military brought the novel Coronavirus to China, as the social media platform ramps up fact-checking of posts.
* In July, announced that four more Chinese media organizations will be treated as foreign diplomatic missions, including: China Central Television (CCTV), China News Service (China News Service), People’s Daily, and Global Times.

11. Before the epidemic, the US economic performance at the end of 2019
* Unemployment rate remains at 3.5%, a new low since 1969
* During Trump’s three years in power, U.S. stocks soared by more than 50%, ranking first among successive presidents
* Increased recruitment and rising wages have driven consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic output, and its health has helped the economy maintain a stretch of growth that is now in its 11th year.
* In G7 in 2019, the United States is the only country with an economic growth rate of more than 2%
* As of December 2019, the U.S. economy has expanded for a record 126 straight months, the longest time period in the country’s history according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
* The total market value of the US stock market climbed to a record, 1.5 times GDP
* In 2019, the strong American economy attracts investment from all over the world,bringing the dollar exchange rate to a record high

12. International organizations
* Loudly accused WHO of being very "China-centric" and withdrawn from the WHO by action and refusing to provide funds, the WHO finally admitted on June 30 that it was alerted by its own office in China, and not by China itself, to the first pneumonia cases in Wuhan.
* Trump is even considering to establish a new international health organization to allow the United States to have greater influence
* WTO Secretary-General suddenly resigned in May this year
* Trump even called for reform of outdated United Nations, implying that an new UN organization should based on the common value as democracy and freedom. Hence, he is starting to invite more democratic countries into G7

⭐ 明年真的可以發大財嗎？⭐　
　　　　　　
本院經濟所發布2019年臺灣經濟情勢預測結果：
　　　　
我國出口需求及消費動能相對減弱，第三季實質GDP年成長率僅達2.27%，預期2018年經濟成長率將微幅調降為2.64%。展望2019年，全球經濟前景仍因貿易戰紛擾與中國需求放緩，加以美國減稅政策效應遞減，以及金融情勢轉趨緊縮，全球經濟成長動能將有所趨緩。

預估2019年實質經濟成長率為2.45%📊

💰物價：1至10月的消費者物價指數(CPI)較去年同期成長1.60%，核心消費者物價指數於相同期間則為1.34%，顯示物價仍相對穩定。

💱貨幣供給：10月雖受股災衝擊而使國內資金需求下滑，然累計前10個月M1B及M2年增率分別為5.30%及3.60%，顯示市場資金仍呈適度寬鬆。

👥勞動市場：今年前10個月之平均失業率為3.71%，顯示就業情況良好，情勢穩定。

國際情勢不明的情況下，我國政府積極推動重大公共工程建設、促進投資及強化內需產業發展等擴張性財政政策之實質效果，將成為臺灣經濟成長動能是否延續的重要關鍵。
　　
------
Due to the heating up of China-U.S. trade conflict and more dramatic fluctuations in international financial markets, the pace of expansion in the global economy has shown instability and the downside risk is gradually getting realized, suppressing the growth momentum. Whist the U.S. economic performance is strong, growth of other major advanced economies such as Europe and Japan are not as strong as anticipated.
　　　　
The slowdown in China's economic growth partly due to the trade war is resulting in weak demand in both export and domestic markets. As for Taiwan, the real GDP grew by 2.27% (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2018 as consumption weakened and export markets were affected adversely by the trade war.
　　　　
Therefore, the revised estimate of economic growth rate in 2018 is 2.64%. Looking forward to 2019, the global economic outlook is still suffering from the risk of trade wars, slowdown in China's demand, diminishing effects of the U.S. tax cuts and a tightening in financial markets, implying the global growth momentum will continue to slow. We expect the real GDP growth of 2.45% in 2019.

------
　　　　
中文新聞稿：https://www.sinica.edu.tw/ch/news/6076
English: https://www.sinica.edu.tw/en/news/6076