🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment (此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間9點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)
🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook
🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.
"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."
全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.
We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.
And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.
There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.
When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.
You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.
I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.
So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .
I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.
Here's some that I have been telling people I like:
First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.
Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.
The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.
I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.
So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.
Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.
Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.
There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.
So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.
https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051
Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.
what did you eat yesterday answer 在 Roundfinger Facebook 的最讚貼文
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ผมไม่ค่อยมีรูปถ่ายกับแม่ รูปนี้ถ่ายเมื่อสองเดือนก่อนในวันที่รู้สึกว่าตัวเองผิวเนียน เพราะไปถ่ายรายการแล้วเขาแต่งหน้าทาแป้งให้ นั่งลงข้างแม่ก็เลยสะกิดว่า-มาถ่ายรูปกัน เราไม่ค่อยมีรูปถ่ายแบบตั้งอกตั้งใจด้วยกันสักเท่าไร แม่เป็นคนไม่ชอบถูกถ่ายรูป และผมอาจติดนิสัยนั้นมาด้วย บ้านเราจึงเป็นบ้านที่มีรูปของพวกเราน้อยเหลือเกิน แต่นั่นไม่ได้หมายความว่าความทรงจำที่มีต่อกันจะน้อยตามจำนวนรูป
ทุกวันแม่ เมื่อได้นั่งดูภาพแม่ๆ ของเพื่อนพ้องน้องพี่ ผมมักรู้สึกเสมอว่า ทำไมแม่ของคนอื่นเขาเยาว์ว...
Continue Reading1
I don't have a lot of photos with my mom. This photo was taken two months ago. On the day that I felt like I had smooth skin because I went to take a show. He made up and put powder to sit down next to my mom. So mom poke me - let's take a No matter how much you don't like to be photographed and I may be addicted to that habit. So our house is a few pictures, but that doesn't mean the memories are less as many photos.
Every day, mother, when I sit and see the photos of mother of friends and sisters. I always feel why other people's mother is so young. My mother used to be young. But after many times of disease comes to say hi to many times and many diseases, mother is like being hit. Sucking my life energy but mother's eyes are always bright when listening to me tell you about this story.
Yes, I am a little jealous of my friends. In the corner that they and mom may have a long time left in this world. This is not the cuddle auspicious story when I tell new technology to dad and mom. I told you that in ten years - twenty years, the world will change like this. Dad and mom will say that time, dad will be in another star.
We are old enough to accept and know the fact that humans have limited time. Love and relationships are limited.
Even I don't think that's a concern between us. As long as breakfast, we still drink coffee, crackers, and talk to each other.
We can't stop flowers from wither, but when we spend time with flowers, the age of flowers looks longer -- yes, quality time
...
2
I need to ask mom to talk more often because my mom asked me to talk less. Your age has arrived at the age where the brain is getting tired. Some doctors may call it dementia. The way is to encourage your brain to work. Review memories both old and new. Put new stories for your brain to think, analyze, digest.
Sometimes I accidentally think that I want my mom to give birth to me when she was younger, but I think it's good because I like how my mother raised me at the age. If you were younger, I was raising me, I might be a boy. Another personality can be.
There are many details of mom's change that all of us in the house need to learn, adapt and understand. But I won't tell you about this in public. You will be shy
Compared to mothers at a younger age, we may see that these things are ' not normal ' but I think it is normal for a human being who brings his body, brain and heart to near eighty years old. It's normal -- that people around you must be. Adapt, not take him earlier as 'normal' and want him to be like that. No change.
Mom walks slower, think slower, talk less. The jealous thing is that mom sleeps more often. Sleep most often in the house. If there is an Olympic Match, you should get a medal because even if she is lifting a cup of coffee cup of coffee, mom can sleep.
I often tease my mom by snap my fingers or call mom's name and say " are you sleeping like a teacher calls a student behind the room. Mother will cringe and make a shy face - no, just close my eyes for a second.
...
3
When everyone adjusts open arms to receive ' new mother ' at this age, we all found our own ' new identity ' as well. Dad became a calmer. My sister became a caretaker of everything. I became the one. Keep stimulating my mother's brain and body. I touch my mother's body more. Squeeze massage the confusing hands to relax. Hug Mom every morning and every morning before leaving home and never abandon what we have done regularly since we were young is kiss each other. Every time before disband to do each person's duty, morning and night, I know that this is how to refuel mom back to have a full tank of oil again. and no matter how old you are, your cheeks are soft, never change.
Now mother is like a tree that everyone in the house cherish. The more fragile the more fragile the heart of the house is slowly getting softer and softer.
Like Mom teaching us the last lesson by new way, not teaching with words like you did, but teaching by using mother as a teaching media.
This lesson, mother teaches us to have a gentle heart, reduce self centered on judging others. Have an open mind, understand, take care of self-love and in others the best.
Mom taught me that humans are fragile and need a gentle touch, not only to touch the body if it includes touching the heart.
Yes, mom makes our hearts more soft through the changes in this age of my own age.
...
4
Yesterday our family went to lunch together like every day. Mom like we do often. But before mom took me and my sister to eat. Now my sister and my sister took mom to eat.
While driving home, my mom told me, " it rains often. Don't drive fast this is what mom reminds me about when I sit on the car until one day mom didn't get in the car and it rains. I might hear it. Mother's voice floats in the head
There are many things that mother taught me who to go to pick up something on his hand. or if you work with someone, don't think about anything fussy. Don't think about him. Think about what you can give him and more. Mom said the same sentence between us drinking coffee for over twenty years. If Milo Ovaltine in childhood, it's over thirty years. These things always come up in some times.
Yesterday my mom told me that mom saw Emma coming to " Emma's house. It's mom. I asked her how is Emma. She said she looks fine. I asked. Did you talk about anything? Mom said she didn't talk about anything but I'm glad that Emma is fine.
...
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Yesterday, when I walked out of the restaurant while I was leash my mom, I suddenly lost it. I was shocked. I tried to grab my mom's arm. Luckily it didn't hit anything serious. We all held mom up. Mom said she said she would like to sit down for a while. Not long I can stand up.
I may be shocked to think that the mother who used to walk eloquent. Why did you fall so easily? I asked mom if she was shocked. Mom said she was not shocked. She fell like this often and I was surprised by the answer. Of course I was worried and funny. One thing I know. It's always good. When mother has a problem. Mom always says that she's okay because she doesn't want kids or dad to worry.
Mother is the last one who thinks of herself
When I ask mom what mother's day I want to eat, the answer is - ehhh what do you want to eat?
When I held my mom up after falling, I thought about my childhood picture. When my mom was leashed me and I stumbled. Mom was the one who pulled my arm up and made a Chinese spell "hapo" which would translate Thai "Oh, it doesn't hurt baby" the picture is so similar. We just switched roles and it's a little different that when I was young, I fell down, but my mother had no tears.
...
6
I wrote to my mom with regards. Sounds funny what I miss. I just went to eat together and I'm actually about to have coffee with my mom after writing this journal.
But I really "miss" my mom.
It must be difficult to explain what missing means. I miss you. When you were stronger. I miss you when you went anywhere with nothing to worry about. I miss you when you were talking to me. I miss you. I miss you. When Mom was more fierce and looked at me in things and... I miss you now when I thought you wouldn't have coffee with me like we did all our life.
Someone told me that my parents never left us. They are in us. I may meet mom some rainy days. I may see mom some morning that I pick up crackers out of the can because I ate this snack with Milo Ovaltine since I was a little kid. This is the one who broke this crispy snack into a cup. When it was soft, it was soft, it was delicious. I might meet my mom while working with someone and got my problem. I may meet mom on a bad day with life, which my mother always tells me, " it's like this. If you don't do anything, there is no problem. If you do, you do, there will be
And I may meet my mom on the day when I feel weak, not confident in myself. Mom may stand and smile somewhere and tell me "ehhh can do it"
That's it. It's missing something like this.
Luckily mom is still sitting there at the same coffee table today.
And this morning I still have a chance to have coffee with mom
I still kiss my mother's cheeks and I still get her cheeks.Translated
what did you eat yesterday answer 在 Aten Arnon: เอเท็น อานนท์ Prince of Marketing Facebook 的精選貼文
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Continue ReadingFuck you.
I ask you a word.
How long will you be confused on the road?
I don't understand. (I answer)
What do you think!
If you take a bus, there is no goal (they ask)
So what are you going to do? (I answered with anger)
Not at the destination
What the hell are you going out to do? (I'm angry. Repeat again)
That's it!
Fuck you.
People who don't have goals think like you.
Graduate school
Working on work. Confused.
Think the damn job is the goal
Because I don't have my own highest goal
You know what's worst!
"no goal" Fuck!
Because of that person
There is no top goal of myself
The result is
No point
Who said it's good, go.
Think about it.
Your Senior who graduated
Almost 90 % working on the line.
Why?
Ok part because
I like it because I dream.
This is what he intended.
But you think it's serious.
Do you want to be a journalist?
Do you want to be a photographer?
No. (I answered)
So what will you graduate?
Probably a journalist! (I answered)
What the hell is this? Tell me I don't like it.
I studied this line. What should I do? (I answered)
Here it is!
Because you don't have a goal
So you only think today tomorrow
Someone said that it's easy to end, so you come to study.
Finally, you graduated.
Seeing people do journalists, you go.
And just like your senior
What I did for a while before 30 found out
Damn don't answer life
I went through a lot of life back then.
Starting to want to be rich
What do we do?
Fuck you got more goals
I hear someone who says it's good. Who says that you are rich
Being a lot of social victims.
Have a short goal
So bad. Woo.
Like a person walking down the street
And I don't know where to go.
Did you tell me the bus?
Final round
Shocked. Jump up too
Then sit down for a while
Hey it's not the way
Take it down
I heard someone say this one.
Take the jump up
And yes, not again.
Always around like that life
It's been a long time. Ask Him.
What is the goal?
"most of them can't answer"
How can it go up right?
No goal yet
Easy to think.
Back to the first question
If there is no destination
Do you think he will choose a car right?
Will he pick a car line?
Street?
Or vehicle, right?
That you complained at first.
How can he be right?
What is he going out to do?
He needs to eat!
Must live!
He's not going out to do a wreck
But it needs to get out. Fuck!!! (he yells at me)
I swallow saliva
That's true!
I've always been like this
Study as a friend
Whatever, anyone who is easy, take it.
Come to study because of friends.
Going to make journalists because of friends
Who said it's good, it's all gone.
He quit, we quit.
I'm really like this
Because I have no goals at all
So I went to get someone else's goal
Some social values
Become our short term goal
I think 90 % more people on earth
Probably like me
I'm confused. Life.
No real goals
Who said it's good, go.
Then loop forever
Do you understand? (they ask)
Yes (I answer)
How do I find a target?
He laughed.
Your heart!
Don't go crazy after the person who tells the goal.
What kind of rules do you need?
There are no rules, heel, anything.
The world has humans before the rules.
And the damn man set that rule
The rule of his values is his.
Not yours.
In the end, the answer is no need to go anywhere.
It's in us.
How old are you (he asked)
19 (I answer)
Let's do it 10 years ago.
10 years is long enough to change your life.
Before 30 how do you want to live?
How should I set it? (I ask)
Damn. Can I pay back? (he answered)
Take what I really want.
Don't think you can or not?
Write it! (they stand paper)
Don't be tense. Damn. I won't watch.
Write it at home
I sit and think, sit and write.
Lived for over 10 days.
Go see the lives of villagers who want to be
I see people with cars.
There is a house
Eat good food
With the age of 19 that day
I wrote a brave and scared
Before 30
I work at home
I EARN 1 million per month.
Or 300,000 is more than enough
Eating with mom everyday
Taking mom to travel every month
Got a cool car (I only wrote honda jazz at that time)
I have 1 cash houses for mom
I look at the writing everyday
It's impossible to watch.
But.....
I believe it too long.
Found Proof, people who can do it.
That makes sure.
I'm not working on the line.
Because I know it doesn't give cuddle results at 30
The way I want.
I put a big target from getting lost.
I keep looking.
Until I found a DJ job selling shirts and music.
And it's broken.
Until I found a car sale.
I met someone who made 1-2 million
I went to live with him for 1 years.
I can do it.
Year later
More income for 200,000 per month.
I quit when I earn 200,000 per month.
To go to work another place. I have a lower income once.
Everyone says crazy
What are you doing weird?
Why are you out?
But I look back at my big target.
I know this job
It can't make me 1 million per month
So I chose to reduce my income.
To have more time to do business.
And on the day when business earn money
More than a full time job
I leave my full time job.
And Let's go to business full time
Yesterday I found a paper.
This sheet is in lack of condition.
I saw what I wrote.
It's almost all possible.
Unexpected. Many of them.
The only thing left is home for mom
And I believe it won't be long.
Before 30, it must get it.
But what I'm excited about is
Seeing that paper
It reminds me of that brother's words.
1. If you don't have a destination
Haha. You will accidentally take someone else's goal.
Or someone else's values are short term goals
3. and soon you will quit
Because it's not what you really want.
4. and you will keep this loop for the rest of your life.
5. So you have to set goals
6. Goals from your heart
7. No requirements at all
Haha. Take what you want from your heart.
9. Goals will keep telling you
Will the car you get you to get you there?
Haha. You won't be in.
Sometimes even people around
I don't agree with you.
But you have a clear destination
You will know and make your own decisions right away.
Without fear of the voice of people around you.
11. Having a clear destination
It will make.
You got the answer
You can choose the right car
Choose the right way
And ask people right
Last one.
12." driving without a destination. No matter how to drive."
"even if you don't know"
Another one.
13. If the destination is clear (I think I will go... (Chiang Mai)
Even at first you didn't know anything
But only you have a clear destination.
Will do it
Your mouth will ask the right person.
Your car can choose the right one.
Your legs will walk the right track.
It will take you in the right situation.
Not lost
And waste of time
And if not give up
Finally got there
And even if I can't reach it
It's close!
A10(Aten)
Prince of sales
"a society of possibilities"Translated