最近,我在「TIME時代」雜志的專欄文章裡,向全球的讀者介紹了大陸「世界工廠」的+AI自動化升級。隨著勞動力成本的上漲,工業自動化、智慧化勢必是大陸製造業的一劑特效藥。自動化能讓運營成本下降,但仍能讓中國大陸保持生產品質、流程、供應鏈維度的優勢。AI賦能產業升級的願景或許還需多年才能實現,但當下的大陸已經讓未來可期。
以下是專欄文章全文,經TIME授權翻譯轉載:
「中國世界工廠 + AI 的未來」
多年來,中國大陸一直被喻為「世界工廠」,即便在全球其他經濟體紛紛遭遇新冠疫情重擊的2020年,大陸製造產業仍然維持穩健的增長范式,全年產值高達3.854萬億美元,占到全球市場近三分之一。
但如果你腦中的大陸工廠是傳統的「血汗工廠」,是時候修正你的刻板印象了。大陸經濟已經迅速地從疫情衝擊下復蘇,疫情同時催化了各種各樣人工智慧(AI)的應用場景加速實現。自2014年以來,中國大陸的AI專利申請量已經超越美國,至今維持全球領先。在學術領域,中國大陸的AI研究論文發表數量、AI期刊的引用量,也雙雙在近年超過了美國。在產業方面,AI應用在大陸的落地速度超越世界其他國家和地區,具有商業價值的AI應用如今開始百花齊放,整合了軟體、硬體和機器人技術的新一代自動化揭開序曲,AI賦能傳統行業的能量,正在蓄勢待發地重塑各行各業。
人類社會至今經歷了三次不同的工業革命:蒸汽革命、電力革命和資訊革命。我相信,AI將會是推動全球第四次工業革命的核心引擎,在世界各地點燃數位化和自動化的變革,而這波前所未有的硬科技浪潮,將由中國來引領實踐。
由於勞動人口減少和新增人口放緩,中國大陸的傳統產業正面臨著勞動力成本上升的巨大壓力,AI正是解決這個難題的技術解答。人工智慧不僅能夠降低運營成本,提高生產效率,擴大整體產能,還有望能帶來收入的增長。
例如,創新工場投資的廣州極飛科技是一家致力於未來農業的AI科技公司,極飛將無人機、機器人和感測器部署在稻田、麥田和棉花田裡,用技術賦能農業中的播種、農藥噴灑、栽種管理、甚至天氣監測環節。用於作物噴灑的極飛科技R150農業無人車已經被推廣到了英國,應用在蘋果、草莓、黑莓等多種經濟作物的種植流程中。
一些大陸的創新公司正積極把機器人拓展到意想不到的場景。總部位於北京的鎂伽是創新工場投資的生命科學智慧自動化公司,他們和實驗室、製藥公司、高校合作,憑藉AI+機器人技術的積累,用自動化解決方案執行實驗室中勞動密集、重複性高、但需要高度精確的任務和流程,同時機器人作業也將盡最大可能保護實驗室人員降低實驗過程中的感染風險。
除了創業公司,我們看到幾家成熟的龍頭企業也開始積極擁抱AI。創新工場參與了有28年歷史的中力電動叉車,這家頭部的鋰電叉車製造商已經推出了能夠在工廠、倉庫自主運行的無人叉車,並且無需對運行環境進行改造,能快速實現從手動到電動到自動駕駛的搬運賦能創新。此外,擁有50多年歷史的領先客車製造商-宇通集團,與自動駕駛獨角獸企業-文遠知行戰略合作,已在大陸三個城市的馬路上運行全無人駕駛小巴。
接著會發生什麼?我大膽預見,在更長遠的未來,機器人和AI將接管大多數產品的製造、設計、交付甚至營銷——很可能將生產成本降低到和原物料成本相差無幾。未來的機器人有能力自我複製和自我修復,甚至做到部分自我反覆運算設計。房屋和公寓將交由AI主導設計,使用預製建築模塊,交由機器人像搭積木似地築樓蓋房。無人公交、無人摩托等隨傳隨到的自動化未來交通系統,能將我們安全無虞地送達想去的地方。
這些願景成為現實或許還需要多年,但此時的大陸正在積極鋪墊引領新一代自動化革命的基石。可期的是,中國工廠的實力將不僅僅體現在產能上,而將逐步彰顯在智慧上。
本文經「TIME時代」授權進行中文編譯,原文如下:
China Is Still the World's Factory — And It's Designing the Future With AI
BY KAI-FU LEE
For many years now, China has been the world’s factory. Even in 2020, as other economies struggled with the effects of the pandemic, China’s manufacturing output was $3.854 trillion, up from the previous year, accounting for nearly a third of the global market.
But if you are still thinking of China’s factories as sweatshops, it’s probably time to change your perception. The Chinese economic recovery from its short-lived pandemic blip has been boosted by its world-beating adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). After overtaking the U.S. in 2014, China now has a significant lead over the rest of the world in AI patent applications. In academia, China recently surpassed the U.S. in the number of both AI research publications and journal citations. Commercial applications are flourishing: a new wave of automation and AI infusion is crashing across a swath of sectors, combining software, hardware and robotics.
As a society, we have experienced three distinct industrial revolutions: steam power, electricity and information technology. I believe AI is the engine fueling the fourth industrial revolution globally, digitizing and automating everywhere. China is at the forefront in manifesting this unprecedented change.
Chinese traditional industries are confronting rising labor costs thanks to a declining working population and slowing population growth. The answer is AI, which reduces operational costs, enhances efficiency and productivity, and generates revenue growth.
For example, Guangzhou-based agricultural-technology company XAG, a Sinovation Ventures portfolio company, is sending drones, robots and sensors to rice, wheat and cotton fields, automating seeding, pesticide spraying, crop development and weather monitoring. XAG’s R150 autonomous vehicle, which sprays crops, has recently been deployed in the U.K. to be used on apples, strawberries and blackberries.
Some companies are rolling out robots in new and unexpected sectors. MegaRobo, a Beijing-based life-science automation company also backed by Sinovation Ventures, designs AI and robots to safely perform repetitive and precise laboratory work in universities, pharmaceutical companies and more, reducing to zero the infection risk to lab workers.
It’s not just startups; established market leaders are also leaning into AI. EP Equipment, a manufacturer of lithium-powered warehouse forklifts founded in Hangzhou 28 years ago, has with Sinovation Ventures’ backing launched autonomous models that are able to maneuver themselves in factories and on warehouse floors. Additionally Yutong Group, a leading bus manufacturer with over 50 years’ history, already has a driverless Mini Robobus on the streets of three cities in partnership with autonomous vehicle unicorn WeRide.
Where is all this headed? I can foresee a time when robots and AI will take over the manufacturing, design, delivery and even marketing of most goods—potentially reducing costs to a small increment over the cost of materials. Robots will become self-replicating, self-repairing and even partially self-designing. Houses and apartment buildings will be designed by AI and use prefabricated modules that robots put together like toy blocks. And just-in-time autonomous public transportation, from robo-buses to robo-scooters, will take us anywhere we want to go.
It will be years before these visions of the future enter the mainstream. But China is laying the groundwork right now, setting itself up to be a leader not only in how much it manufactures, but also in how intelligently it does it.
Source:https://time.com/6084158/china-ai-factory-future/
同時也有1部Youtube影片,追蹤數超過2萬的網紅中山 繁樹 Shigeki Nakayama,也在其Youtube影片中提到,A. 日本語は母国語なのに文章がうまく書けない。 B. English Business level. or I can at least communicate with the foreigner (pretty much all the situation) C. 中文:日常溝通沒有問題。但...
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[挑戰Excel Google Shit]得唔得架?人地萬億美金市值喎。
彭博原文:Spreadsheet Maker Airtable Taps Funds at $2.5 Billion Value(https://bityl.co/3YWw)
TLDR:介面幾靚,收費又好似唔貴。但,辦公室軟件,好難挑戰巨頭喎,仲要做埋同佢地差不多嘅嘢。
1. 呢檔新Startup(*),最成功係個名。AirTable,易記,又唔會諗起其他嘢,但又唔係唔啦更。正如Bloomgerg所講,Spread Sheet,「哦,即係挑戰Excel 同Google Shit」
2. 其實話新都唔係好新,2012年成立。另外,都玩到D輪融資,最新集資近2億美金,估值25億美金,唔係蚊型嘢了。創辦人話唔會賣盤呀下,至少而家唔會(never say never),1000億機會輕而易舉喎(計乜先?)
3. 得唔得架?之前都有啦,EditGrid嘛,香港嘢添,好似話仲早過Google,我有用過,還好.「但而家都係用返Excel同Google」.咁今次呢舊又乜家伙?
4. 利申:只係快望過,當然冇用過,亦冇好細心咁去睇。趕住訓。其實我之前聽都未聽過間公司。當然可能只係我問題,我見都有唔少教學,中文嘅都有(https://bityl.co/3YVr)
5. 呢篇中文簡介反而幾好,至少有個「Vision」.入面講咗句嘢,唔知係咪公司原本講,(甚至可能根本條友有份),總之就係:1985年,已經係Word Excel同Powerpoint,而家2020年啦喎。中途Google有搞下Google Shit Google Dog之類,但本質都係一樣。應該改變下,云云
6. (不過說實話,本人呢啲腦盲,應該去到1995年先接觸Word,之前同學屋企玩過WordPerfect,至於試算表嘛,反而90前已經IBM玩過,但唔記得叫乜名)
7. Bloomberg篇嘢,叫佢做Spread Sheet,唔知公司會唔會覺得唔恰當。篇報導將公司產品定位為「冇咁強大但易用嘅Excel」
8. 但我見公司網頁反而講自己係Spread Sheet+Database,我望落亦都覺得似係。
9. 第一印象,介面幾靚嘅。見佢啲template,亦唔似同Excel好相似,反而係integrate 更多其他嘢,特別係相同埋片。好似,幫到啲一大堆資料但好零散嘅友,例如會幫到我寫文?或者公司做product system呀,CRM呀乜鬼,其實可能都有用。我見過啲唔少系統,都係介面唔多靚仔,亦有點兒複雜嘅
10. 唔好睇少呢樣嘢,都未得閒寫,但早排我問過下人,點解Zoom跑出?講最早又唔係,早多錢又唔係。根據專家朋友講,似乎就係因為夠易用,介面簡單靚仔,廢老都識用。好重要的!
11. 唔知個比喻啱唔啱,但你睇真係去到智能電話大盛後,你老母甚至你阿爺嗰啲先會變埋「上網」。你畀部電腦佢,佢係唔會玩的。但拎部電話佢就識同你發長輩圖。當然可以拎住周圍用亦係原因,Network effect佢地其他朋友都用亦係原因
12. 講到Network effect,我諗又係呢類公司嘅死症。拿我唔係專家,但你見MS Office雄霸多年,當然亦因為人人用,你都要用。你整個file對家開唔到嘅,點玩?掉轉都係。就當你有兼容性(個個都會做啦),但你公司一用,又要啲員工全部識用喎。固然AirTable之類實會幫你培訓,而家有埋Zoom之類更好。但,你都知多數員工都係好似我呢類嘅腦盲,「學咗咁多年先識VLookup先識VBA寫Macro你而家又要我學第樣嘢」,好煩的
13. 我見佢AirTable都有啲大公司客,很重要。但個出路會唔會都係個人,或者中小企?見啲收費似乎唔貴,應該有競爭力。
14. 其他?唔知。但直覺好難玩,又係嗰個問題,大公司當道,抄你又得,搶你啲人又得。你話你做啲同佢完全唔同嘅嘢都話,但你同佢做差不多嘅嘢,扮公室軟件,得唔得架?
15. 呢,你見Slack,應該已經算係相當成功。但,「本人用都冇用過」「用MS Teams我都覺得麻撚煩」,「點解唔Whatsapp講或打電話講?」。固然唔好咁中二病,你冇用過唔等於冇人用,但,用家數字爭好遠下話。Zoom就真係殺出一條血路。
16. 拿,本人嘅tech 撚朋友評曰:「簡單來講,佢個媽劇係邊?就係只剩唔多願意科水俾錢既Startup或中小企,企業巿場實在難以同一條龍及深受IT高層信賴既Microsoft Teams搶。咁大個餅你淨係咬得幾啖,仲要啲豆沙餡係哂人地果邊。筆者想科水俾Slack時,公司IT、Finance都輪流質疑「點解唔用返Teams?」,而當你科水時,你就會發現科水跟本買唔到幾多,「好似有少少貴」,你最愛既功能跟本唔科水都夠用。然後⋯⋯Github而家Integrate埋Teams了,點搞?又,唔係你以為Microsoft而買Github?呢啲咪「仙甩治」。」
17. (而再講一次,本人連用Teams都覺得麻撚煩,「點解唔用Whatsapp」)
18. 另一tech 撚朋友評曰:「我個人經驗,工作溝通通常都只係文字對話,或者開會。呢類 app 除非提供到一啲其他 instant messenger 一定提供唔到嘅功能,否則啲人用用下就會自然地用返一般用開的 instant messenger嘅 group chat。因為方便,唔駛開多樣。」
19. 我不負責任咁講句:唔係咁易架葉師傅。技術背景嘅,當然係留意隻嘢有幾勁有幾多功能,但女人嘅嘢,絶世好Bra話頭,唔使你轉幾十個 pose架!你睇電飯煲(**),就一個大掣,你阿麻都識用,幾咁撚簡單!呢啲就Design thinking啦!你睇微波爐?其實你有用過乜功能?我用嘅功能就只係較時間,然後叮。「我好多時連大中小火都唔搞」「唔夠熱咪再叮耐啲」
20. 另外當然,就係大公司點都以本傷人,綑綁銷售又好,價格戰又好,利用現有嘅優勢去打你又好(Microsoft玩咗幾廿年啦),點會咁易畀你搶灘?
21. 咁但不過,潑冷水之類後,又要講,成件事係冇矛盾的。係呀,好撚難架。但正係難先有機會發嘛,如果個個做到,就唔會有得發啦。你做到一間Zoom突圍成功,你睇袁征副身家幾咁勁?
22. AirTable嘛,好在仲係唔係太大,雖則都話20萬個公司客了(嘩),但25億美金估值唔算係咩好誇張,「王維基咁上下」。相反,Slack嗰啲,已經都幾成熟,玩咗咁多年,市都上埋,140億美金市值,但依然冇錢賺,點玩落去?
23. 不過唔緊要,沒有最泡,只有更泡。Slack今年啲表現都還不錯的。早兩日上嗰隻Snowflake先CSL挑戰你三觀,啲估值令我懷疑人生。一度成900億美金市值,而家跌返啲都仲有600億美金。我就唔知點計數了,但900億美金市值,講緊在標普500指數都排70—但公司收入?得4億,低過任何一間標普500指數成份股公司。
24. 4億收入撐900億市值?亞馬遜1997年上市,玩到2011年先有800億市值—但當時收入係400億
25. 呀,又賣廣告了,Snowflake嘅嘢,其實Patreon有講,仲有大把其他嘢(https://bit.ly/31QmYj7)
26. 真的,有機會我都想試用下呢個AirTable—但你睇到問題了,「老人家邊有時間慢慢學」,但,後生有時間嘅,又唔肯科水喎。「所以你見手遊都係男兒當入樽,因為啲廢老有錢畀」
(*)有舊Startup?有的,Palantir成立咗17年,都仲扮係Start up,或者想人當佢係,或者有人當佢係
(**)唔係做愛姿勢嚟的,唔係講緊乞兒煲飯OK?雖則我到而家都唔知乞兒點煲飯,更加唔明外國嘅乞兒煲唔煲飯?煲Risotto?
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design thinking中文 在 公民聯盟 Facebook 的最讚貼文
💕「愛台灣,我的選擇」系列第五發:高雄美國學校總校長卜傑明與太太來到台灣的甜蜜故事 💕💕
卜傑明:「多年前我曾經參加過美國和平志工團,過程艱辛但豐富有趣。我和睿宜剛開始交往時,她就有打算在海外定居工作,我百分之百支持她的決定。」
卜睿宜:「我畢業於航太工程學系,也曾經在波音公司實習了一段時間。大學畢業後,我到美國洛克達因公司工作,洛克達因公司是美國國家航空暨太空總署(NASA)的承包商,專門製造太空梭的主要引擎。」
卜傑明:「她可是真正的火箭科學家喔!」
卜睿宜:「我的公司在加州設計、製造引擎零件,再運到密西西比史坦尼斯太空中心進行組裝和測試,但我一直都想當個物理老師。我其實是在出差的時候認識傑明,我的同事當時和傑明的室友訂婚……結果我們現在也結婚了!」
卜傑明:「當我們在尋找海外工作機會時,台灣的機會就來了。當時我飛來台灣面試,我還記得第一次推開這扇門的時候,就有種特別的感覺。我在台灣待了兩天,上飛機的剎那,我就非常堅信這學校和台灣都是對的選擇!我那時跟睿宜說:『妳有想過去台灣嗎?』結果她從沙發上跳起來說:『有!台灣就是我的首選!』
卜睿宜:「我一直都想要學中文,我有很多高中和大學的同學都來自台灣。我喜歡溫暖的天氣,也喜歡旅遊。在這邊我結交了好多新朋友,台灣人非常友善開放!」
卜傑明:「我現在是高雄美國學校的總校長,我們有來自超過30個國家、800位學生。我們的美式教育哲學是強調批判性思考而非背誦,並著重發揮創意、創造新知 — 這不是教學法的一種,而是我們的信念。而且,我們身處高雄,就是屬於高雄的一份子。高雄美國學校的建築概念就是『透明』,就算坐在教室裡,我們的學生也能看到他們所屬的城市以及外面的世界。」
✅卜傑明博士於2017年接任高雄美國學校總校長,卜傑明先後取得美國哥倫比亞大學教育碩士及博士學位,並曾擔任過中學校長、副校長、數學及科學老師,他也曾加入美國和平志工團到萬那杜共和國從事海外服務。卜睿宜女士是火箭科學家。夫婦倆熱愛美食、聚會交流及旅遊。
Why I Chose Taiwan #5 💞
Ben: I was a Peace Corps volunteer many years ago. It was a wonderful and difficult experience. Early in our relationship, Torey told me she eventually planned to live and work overseas. I was one hundred percent on board with that.
Torey: So academically, my background is in aerospace engineering. I interned with Boeing for a while. Then after college, I went to work for Rocketdyne, which is a subcontractor for NASA, they made the space shuttle main engines.
Ben: She’s an actual rocket scientist!
Torey: My company would design and manufacture the parts for engines in California. And then we would ship them to the Stennis Space Center in Mississippi, where we would assemble and test engines. But I always wanted to be a physics teacher. When I met Ben, I was actually on a business trip. One of my coworkers was engaged to Ben’s roommate…and now we’re married!
Ben: So we were looking for overseas opportunities, and the opportunity in Taiwan came about. And I came out here to interview in person. And I remember when I walked in the front door of this place for the first time…it just felt different. I was here for two days and by the time, I got the plane to go back home, I was sold on the school. I was sold on Taiwan. I went to Torey and I said, “Torey, did you ever consider Taiwan?” She literally jumped up from couch and said, ”Yes, that’s at the top of my list.”
Torey: I always wanted to learn Mandarin and I have so many friends in high school and college who were from Taiwan. I love the heat. I love the travel. I’ve made so many new friends here. People are so nice and so open.
Ben: I now serve as the superintendent of the Kaohsiung American School. We have 800 students from a total of over 30 countries. There is a certain philosophy to American education that we apply here -\-\ an emphasis on critical thinking over memorization; the importance of creativity and creating new knowledge -\-\ we don’t identify them as part of our pedagogy. They are actually part of our beliefs. At the same time, we are in Kaohsiung. We are part of Kaohsiung. This school is designed to be transparent. Even when you’re sitting in the class, we want our students visually connected to the city they are part of and to the place they are part of and to the outside world.
✅Dr. Ben Ploeger joined the Kaohsiung American School community as Superintendent in 2017. He earned his EdD and MEd from Columbia University. Dr. Ploeger has worked as a head of school, principal, vice principal, math teacher, and a science teacher at the high school and middle school levels. He served in the United States Peace Corps in the island nation of Vanuatu. Mrs. Torey Ploeger is a rocket scientist. They enjoy good food, good company and conversation, and traveling together.
design thinking中文 在 中山 繁樹 Shigeki Nakayama Youtube 的最讚貼文
A. 日本語は母国語なのに文章がうまく書けない。
B. English Business level. or I can at least communicate with the foreigner (pretty much all the situation)
C. 中文:日常溝通沒有問題。但是我不會講出來。
どのように、この状況を打破しようかと半年悩んでいます。
この状況を変えたくてYoutube動画を1月31日から毎日作ってきました。結構深刻な悩みなので毎日、日本語、英語、中国語の本を読んだり、色々な国籍の人と話をしていましたが、結局思ったことはPerfectを求めすぎなんじゃない?という結論に至りました。すべての言語に完璧な人間はいないんだから、自分のペースで頑張るしかないんだと思ってきました。
I recently realized that there is no one who can speak all languages; thus, I stopped thinking about perfection. However, I need to motivate myself to improve my English, Chinese, and Japanese writing and speaking ability.
謝謝你們收看!請你們按讚!訂閱!
【在台灣留學的日本人的留學生】
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