關於 it's been a long time意思 ，我們在網路上蒐集到這些相關的討論、資訊與評價

🌻另一個Zoom會議(第二次貼......有補上一些內容)
繼上次的年報導讀會議後, 讓我們再做另一個會議! 這次很榮幸邀請到一位對估值很有見解的股友前輩來帶大家了解估值(恩, 這次我會是主持人, 不是主講人).
主題: 估值(valuation)分享會(Cat: 這不算基礎的估值會議)
主講人: 小揚(from安泰價值投資)
https://www.facebook.com/antaiinvestment　(此為小揚的粉絲頁)
參與者: 具基本估值能力. 若打算參加者, 請事先跟我(請私訊)提出一個關於估值的case study, 到時候可在會議中分享(最好是以投影片形式呈現, 這樣到時候好跟大家分享). 若有估值的問題, 也可以提出.
Case study可以是美股, 也可以是台股.
時間: 台灣時間07/10 (周六)晚間９點.
預計一個小時(不會像上次那樣冗長了😅): 前30分鐘由小揚做分享, 後30分鐘大家分享估值案例&提問
進行方式: 以Zoom進行(之後會私訊會議資訊給參與者)

🌻Morgan Stanley Mid-year Investor Outlook: A tricky transition

https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/midyear-2021-global-markets-outlook

🌻在您投資生涯中, 有沒有一些觀念讓您受用很多?
下面這位投資名人的好觀念影響我很深. 他的意思是, 一般投資人, 只要能説出三個買一家公司的理由, 就很夠了. 這也迫使我, 每次在買股票時, 問自己對這家公司的了解有多少. 也會去衡量公司的優點與缺點在哪裡.

"It is vital (重要的) that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks."

全文在此:
Jim Cramer: In Times Like This, Go for the Easy Money
Look at the stocks you own. Can you tell me why you've got them? If you can't answer the following three questions, then have a look at several I like right now.

We've endured the meme stock craziness, with all of its love for heavily shorted stocks. We have watched the collapse of bitcoin to levels viewed as shocking, even if they are still more than double where they were not that long ago. We've dealt with Fed officials making it clear that they are no longer on the side of the bulls or the bears. They are on the side of job growth, but are wary of inflation. We've seen the end of the rush to get vaccines, which means that millions of people are going to get the new COVID variant, because there is no natural immunity to it. We've watched as the hopes for an infrastructure bill have collapsed. We've endured shortages of everything from chips to plastic to imported goods and labor.

And we're still standing, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Yep, we are in one of those halcyon moments, where the masks are off -- even if they shouldn't be -- and Americans are back doing what they do best: consume, spend, go out to eat and then consume and spend some more.

There are times in the stock market where the collective mindset is revealed. This is one of those times: Things are cool, it's not a big moment, there's no real news for a bit, it's the historically strong period and we can reach some conclusions about where we are.

When things are like this, it is important to remember that buyers like to revert to tried-and-true companies that thrive no matter what. These are companies that have an edge and are better at what they do than other companies.

You know that I am a great believer in index funds, that the average person doesn't have the time or the inclination to research individual stocks. It's a difficult barrier. I think you need to make time to read the quarterly report and listen to the conference call, to Google articles and, if possible, get some research about the companies you own. It is vital that you know what you own, that if I asked you on the street why you like a certain stock, you can give me three reasons. If you don't know how they make their money, who their key clients are and what they make if, then I will tell you that you are over your head and should not own individual stocks. I am reminded by this, because, once again, without a mask, I can be recognized and if I am not holding "Nvidia the Second," I can carry on a conversation.

I have had many in the last two weeks and when I have asked this litany of questions, I find myself at a loss as to why almost no one knew what they owned. But they thirsted for individual stocks, because they, like me, think things are better post pandemic. No, that's not a facetious comment. Many, many stocks did better with a stay-at-home economy. A huge number.

So what do I do? I revert to what others do when you are stumped about how to stay in touch with stocks, but want to do less homework. That means buying stocks that are accessible, not stocks like Unity (U) or Snowflake (SNOW) or Twilio (TWLO) or Okta (OKTA) .

I revert to normal businesses people know and I suggest they Google some articles, peruse the conference call, but, above all, like the company's products so you can buy more if it goes down.

Here's some that I have been telling people I like:

First is Ford (F) . I think the Ford lineup is amazing. The electric F-150 series will be incredible. I am eager to get a Maverick for my family, because it is a smaller pickup that will get the job done for the myriad little things I need to do with this farm I bought from that crazy bitcoin foray. I like the competitive edge of the CEO, who says he is going to bury Elon Musk when the Lightning comes out. I even think the Bronco is cool as all get out. Most important, though? I think the chip shortage is ending. My semiconductor friends are telling me the foundries are producing more feature-rich chips and that means Ford can pump out the trucks small business people love and need. Plus, the used car prices at last have plateaued, according to their most important pricing index. Halcyon times.

Second, Costco (COST) : The samples are coming back. Tell me you don't love the samples. You need things in bulk. You want low prices. You want to get all of the things that people don't think of with Costco, like insurance, hearing-aids -- hey, they are a fortune -- jewelry, things around the house. You go and you will buy far more than you first came for. My kind of store.

The kids love this American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) , which we just bought for my charitable trust, which you can follow along by joining the Action Alerts PLUS club. Jay Schottenstein, the CEO, came on "Mad Money" recently and it's clear that his Aerie model has real staying power: 26 consecutive quarters of double digit growth. No flash in the pan, that one. Number one brand in jeans for the 15 to 25 year old group. The best in the mall. How did I know this? I see the credit card bills.

I got up this morning to do my physical therapy. I have been doing it ever since I hurt my back in February. I have this really cool pair of sneakers that fit me perfectly and I love them, but I am fortunate enough to have a vacation house and I am always taking those shoes with me.

So I went on Amazon (AMZN) this morning and lo and behold I saw them for half price. I bought two pairs. Then I went over everything I have bought in the last year and got a bunch of those things. Then I bought a pair of binoculars, because mine were stolen. I paid half price.

Yep, Amazon's universal. I was talking to Alexa, while I was ordering, getting some new music on, asking questions. I saw that despite all of the Sturm und Drang of Amazon being late with things, all the delivery dates were within range. I didn't click on any ads, and I didn't need the speed of Web Services, but the whole thing reminded me about how special the darned company is. I don't care if it's ahead or behind plan for the moment. I would just buy some more when it goes down.

Finally, Apple (AAPL) . I think people who don't own Apple should look what they are holding at this very moment. Yes, right now. Or look at what's in your lap or on the table besides your fork. And then think about the bill you paid last night without knowing it. Think about what you bought in the App store yesterday. Think about what would happen if it would break or get stolen or, left in the Uber (UBER) , or heaven forbid, be dropped into the pool or in the, yes, toilet.

There, that's what you buy in halcyon times. Stocks of companies you know that if they go lower, because things get less halcyon, you are fine with it and buy more. If things go up, believe me, you will participate.

So accept the moment. Don't try for the hard money. Go for the easy kind. That's the best kind.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/jim-cramer--15692051

Picture: 牡丹(peony)花開. 恨不得院子裡有一塊地是牡丹園.

【我親愛的Zoom視訊客人們】
To My Dear Zoom Clients

我忍了真的⋯⋯真的⋯⋯很久，今天過後實在忍無可忍，一定要叮嚀所有過去和未來的客人們。

我年紀很大了，受不了太大的刺激。

拜託，你們可以Zoom好來嗎？😓😑

一、Zoom視訊的視角 = 拍護照照的視角

護照自2020年起就已成為古董，但大家這一生應該有拍過證件照吧！

對了，就是要頭髮整齊，讓我看到你的雙耳、雙眼、鼻子、嘴巴、頸項和肩膀，到胸部。

我批八字時，需要看整個面相。不要讓你一半的臉掉出鏡頭外，這樣很像鍾無艷，也不要嘴巴不見掉，這樣我很像在跟一條羅漢魚視訊。

我看面相包括看你的嘴巴、牙齒和說話時的嘴形。是的，看相就是需要那麼仔細。

如果你的螢幕太低，那就找書本或舊報紙，把螢幕墊高一點。別讓我整一個小時半只看到你的雙下巴，會把你的面相比例給看錯。

不要一直告訴我不好意思，方法是人想出來的。

•

二、光線

太暗，我看你如見鬼。
太亮，我會看不清你的膚色。
拉開窗簾，不要背向陽光。
有必要的話，就直接開燈！

•

三、勿放什麼椰樹沙灘/金門大橋的虛擬背景圖

什麼虛擬背景圖都不要放啦～

我的家美最重要，我不在乎你的家美不美，我只是來看命的。

如果你的Wi-Fi不是很強，電腦功能不是很厲害，這類的虛擬背景圖會讓你的視訊畫面卡卡的。

有時你轉個身，整個右邊不見了，或部份的頭髮少了，讓我覺得我好像在看恐怖片，嚇人啊～

•

四、環境和聲音

有些海外客人其實非常用心。為了與我視訊，特別去買有麥克風的耳機🎧，讓我能更清楚的聽到他們的聲音。😍

沒有使用耳機和麥克風的客人，往往他們的聲音會有種空氣般的回音，如果他們本身講話又小聲，我的耳機聲量開滿，我還是聽得滿辛苦的

也有香港和馬來西亞客人租過會議室、鐘點房間或單人工作室，就是為了不受家人的干擾，能安心的與我視訊。😍

最有趣的是，去年新加坡阻斷措施時，有位男客人跑到屋外的走廊坐在地上與我視訊。只是外頭風聲有點大，我好幾次都聽不清楚他的聲音。

曾有客人在咖啡廳與我視訊。咖啡廳裡的高談闊論聲和器皿的敲擊聲，頻頻從我的耳機闖進我的耳朵，哇～我的耳朵那時真的是活受罪，還要裝一副氣定神閒的樣子。

天啊，兩次過後，我寧願退錢，也不再見這樣的客人了。耳朵只有一對，我要保護好啊！

在這裡聲明：一般我們買手機時的那種有麥克風的耳機，就已能視訊。沒有戴耳機和麥克風的客人，我一概會拒絕諮詢，把費用原銀奉還。

五、孩子

曾試過諮詢的前20分鐘，一直被女客人的小孩打擾，進來哭著要媽媽主持公道。

如果你家中有六歲以下的兒童，會時不時來敲你的門，我建議你還是先別約我。你這樣會分心，無法聽好我交代的事，而我也得一直等你去安撫你的孩子，就無法在限定時間內看完你的八字，這樣對誰都不公平。

六、我只見客人一人

這個規矩，從我一出道就定下來，也清楚的寫在網站上，根本不用一而再的來試探水溫。

但這兩個星期，還是有客人硬闖關，事先安排自己的配偶/孩子坐在電腦的另一面，要他們聽我講他的八字。

我從不改我的規矩，也沒有八字或風水是我非看不可的。

讀書這麼高，連自己的命都不能自己負責，這已經不是能改到命的人了。

你一定要你的配偶陪你聽，那你需要的不是我來教你改命，是你的配偶來安你的心。

將來若還有這樣的事，我會直接中斷視訊，把錢退回去。

七、「我第一次用Zoom！」

可是從報名那天到今天的諮詢，你有兩個月的時間去摸索。

兩個月，怎麼還是錯誤百出？因為客人根本沒有事先準備和練習。

結果我就這樣等了20分鐘，還得等對方下載軟件。

Zoom不難使用，但如果是你沒有花時間去摸索，就不要撒謊，直接說，我就直接退現錢。

品德是改命的資糧，不要為了自己能脫身就隨便編一個漏洞百出的謊，還說自己是好人。這...不會臉皮太厚了嗎？

小事都不願做好，絕對不會成大器。

八、暈車

有些客人用Ipad或手機來視訊。

重點是，他一支手拿著手機，一支手拿筆寫筆記。他一邊寫，另一支手就一邊搖晃。他做在床上，移動一下，手機就彷彿大海嘯幾下🌊

我一天如果見三個這樣客人，我的視線就搖晃了5個小時。工作完畢後，頭也會痛得厲害，無法完成晚上製片的工作。

沒有自拍器三腳架，也應該有些書本或東西來頂著手機。

各位，多點善心，為我著想一下吧⋯⋯

__________________________

To My Dear Zoom Clients

I have been enduring it for a really really long time. That's it! I am gonna put a stop to this after today and send out this reminder to all my past and future clients.

I am getting on in years, and cannot stand too much stimulation.

Please.... can you guys do a proper Zoom?

Number 1: Going on screen in Zoom = Taking a photograph for your passport.

Since 2020, the passport has become something of an antique but I believe everyone has taken some kind of ID photos! Yes, the ones with your neatly combed trusses where I can see both your ears, nose, mouth, neck, shoulder all the way to your chest.

I would like to see your full face during the Bazi Consultation. Please don't allow half your face to fall off the screen and you end up looking like Zhong Wu Yan! Please also don't hide your mouth making me feel like I am talking to a Arrowana.

When I analyze your facial features, it includes your mouth, teeth and the shape of your mouth while you are talking. Yes, it is down to such level of details.

If your PC / Laptop monitor is too low, please find a book or old newspapers and stack it on top. Please don't let me only see your double chin for that 1.5 hours, as I would probably get the proportion of your face wrong.

Don't keep telling me you are apologetic. Think of a way out.

Number 2: The background lighting.

Too dark, you risk looking like a ghost.

Too bright, I cannot figure out your skin color.

Draw open the curtains, but don't face your back to the sunlight.

If necessary, just turn on the lights!

Number 3: Background images of coconut trees on sandy beaches or the Golden Gate Bridge.

There is no need to put on a virtual background. I only care about how my hone looks, I am not bothered by yours. I am only here to see your Bazi.

If your WIFI signal or your PC / Laptop performance is poor, using the virtual background can often make your Zoom video choppy. Sometimes when you turn your body, one side of your body or some part of your hair will disappear. It's really like one of those spooky movies scaring the wits out of me.

•

Number 4: Background environment and noise.

Some of my overseas clients really put in effort for our Zoom sessions. They bought a headset with a mic so that I can hear them properly and vice versa.

Those that did not use a earphone or a headset often sounded echo-ish, and if they spoke softly, I would have to turn on the volume on my side full throttle and still have a hard time trying to hear them.

There are some clients from Hong Kong and Malaysia who would rent meeting rooms, hotel rooms or private work spaces by the hour so as to reduce any disturbance from others and better focus on the Zoom session with me.

I recalled an interesting incident during the Circuit Breaker last year. A client from Singapore Zoom-ed with me along the corridor outside his house. Most of the time, I was hearing the howling of the winds rather than his voice.

Some clients sat themselves in coffee places for our session. These places are often filled with loud chatters and the clanging of cups and plates, and my ears suffered terribly. Yet, I have to continue to be seen as composed and attentive.

Goodness me, after 2 of such experiences, I decided that I rather refund these clients and never see them again. I have only 1 pair of ears and I want to protect them at all costs!

A normal earpiece that comes with the purchase of a handphone is good enough for Zoom video calls. For clients who do not have a earpiece/headset and a mic, I would end the consultation and refund the monies.

•

Number 5: Children

There was once where a session with a female client was repeatedly disrupted by her kids, running in crying for their mother to settle their quarrels. If you have children below 6 years of age, and likely to interrupt our session, I suggest you don't book a consultation with me.

You will be distracted, unable to focus on my advice and I have to wait for you to clear up the situation with your children, eating into the allowable time for me to complete the consultation. This is unfair to both you and me.

•

Number 6: I only meet one person, that is the Client.

I have set this requirement the day I stepped into this line of work, and it is clearly written in my booking form. There is no need to try your luck under any circumstances.

But in the space of 2 weeks, there were some clients who rode their luck and got their spouse / child to sit on the other side of the screen to listen in on our consultation.

I never change my stance, and there is no single client that I cannot afford to lose.

If you insist to have your spouse sit in, it is apparent that you do not need me to help transform your destiny. Rather you really need your spouse to put your heart at ease.

If such things happen the next time, I will end the session immediately and refund the fees.

•

Number 7: "My first time using Zoom"

But you have 2 full months to prepare before our actual consultation. You did not end up wasting time exploring the software and I wasted 20 mins waiting for you to download the software.

Zoom is an easy software to use but if you did not spend the time to familiarize yourself with it, please quit the lies and tell me directly. I will refund the consultation fees on the spot.

Our moral ethics serve as the foundation for our transformation. Stop weaving web of lies to get out of sticky situations, and still claim that you are a good person. Isn't this too thick-skinned?

•

Number 8: Giddy spells

Some clients use Ipad or their handphones for the Zoom session. Crucially, they hold the device with one hand, and take notes with the other. As they write, the other hand holding the phone becomes shaky. If he is doing that on his bed, his handphone would shake like a tsunami wave every time he changes his position.

If I see 3 such clients within a day, it would be 5 hours of shaking visuals for me. That would mean a splitting headache at the end of my work day, and not being able to work on my videos at night.

Even if you don't have a tripod stand, at least prop up the device with a book or something.

Please everyone, please be kind and have mercy on me......

=================================
「そろそろ」の英語を上手に使いこなそう！
=================================
　
英語では「もうそろそろ」を一般的に「It's about time」を使って表します。但し、状況により使い方からニュアンス、また意味までもが異なります。今日のコラムではネイティブ並みに「It's about time」を上手に使いこなすためのポイントをご紹介します。
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
1) It's about time _____
→「そろそろ◯◯をしないと」
--------------------------------------------------
　
本来なら早めにやるべき事を後回しにしたり、ある程度時間が経って「もうそろそろ◯◯をしていい頃だ」と言いたい時に使われるパターンです。例えば、仕事もせずに毎日遊んでいるプー太郎の息子に「そろそろ仕事を探さないと」と言う場合は「It's about time you found a job」になります。
　
✔使い方：「It's about time」＋「主語」＋「動詞（過去形）」・・・現在のことを話していますが、文法上は「過去形」を使うのが正しいです。しかし、ネイティブ同士の会話では、この動詞を「現在形」(It's about time you find a job）で表すこともあります。
　
＜例文＞
　
Your hair is getting long. It's about time you got a haircut!
（髪長くなってきたね。そろそろ切らないと）
　
Don't you think it's about time you got married?
（そろそろ結婚したらどうですか？）
　
It's about time I quit smoking.
（そろそろタバコを止めないと）
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
2) It's about time _____
→「やっと◯◯だ」
--------------------------------------------------
　
前にすべきことをようやくした時や、遅れている電車やバスなどがようやく到着する時に使われます。例えば、プー太郎の息子がやっと仕事を見つけたとします。その場合は「It's about time you found a job!（やっと仕事を見つけたね）」になります。ご覧の通り、表現の仕方・文章構成は上記と全く同じですが、状況・言うタイミングが異なるだけでニュアンスが違ってきます。
　
✔使い方：「It's about time」＋「主語」＋「動詞（過去形）」
　
✔「やっとだね！」→「It's about time」
　
＜例文＞
　
〜 会話例１ 〜

A: Sorry I'm late.
（遅れてすみません）

B: It's about time you showed up. You're an hour late.
（やっと来ましたね。一時間も遅れているんですよ）
　
〜 会話例２ 〜

A: Did you hear Martin proposed?
（マーティンがプロポーズしたって聞きました？）

B: It's about time! He's been with her for over 10 years!
（やっとですね。10年以上付き合っていましたからね）
　
〜 会話例３ 〜

A: Our taxi is finally here.
（タクシーがやっと来ました）

B: It's about time! It took them 30 minutes to get here.
（やっとだね！ここに来るのに30分もかかっています）
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
3) It's about time to _____
→「そろそろ◯◯をする時間です」
--------------------------------------------------
　
これからランチに行ったり、家に帰ったりするなど「今が（何かを）する時間である」ことを表します。例えば、お昼休みに同僚に「そろそろランチに行く時間です」と伝える場合は「It's about time to go to lunch」になります。
　
✔使い方：「It's about time」＋「to」＋「動詞」
　
＜例文＞
　
It's about time to go home.
（そろそろ家に帰る時間です）
　
It's about time to go back to work.
（そろそろ仕事に戻る時間です）
　
It's about time to end this meeting.
（そろそろこのミーティングを終わらせましょう）
　
　
--------------------------------------------------
4) I gotta get going
→「そろそろ行かないと」
--------------------------------------------------
　
英語では帰る意思を示す決まり文句が「I gotta get going」（正しくは、I have got to get going）。「It's about time to go」でも間違いではありませんが、「I gotta get going」のほうがよりナチュラルで自然な言い方になります。
　
✔その他に「I gotta go (I have got to go）」も頻繁に使われます。
　
✔友達や同僚に「そろそろ行きましょうか？」と声をかけるときは「Shall we get going?」がよく使われます。
　
✔『「そろそろ行きましょうか？/帰ります」は英語で？(https://hapaeikaiwa.com/?p=1348)』もご覧ください。
　
＜例文＞
　
I gotta get going. See you tomorrow.
（そろそろ行かないと。また明日ね）
　
It's getting late. I gotta go.
（遅くなってきたので、そろそろ行かないと）
　
Shall we get going? Where do you want to go next?
（そろそろ行きましょうか？次どこへ行きますか？）
　
　
　
　
　
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